我国房地产库存影响因素的实证研究

发布时间：2018-02-15 23:39

本文关键词： 房地产库存 Johansen协整检验 Granger因果关系检验　出处：《西安财经学院学报》2017年04期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：从2011年开始,我国房地产市场陷入库存不断增加的困境,给国民经济发展带来了极大的负面影响。2016年初,我国中央及各级地方政府相继推出了多项住房消费鼓励政策以支持房地产去库存政策的落地,但效果并不显著。本文基于我国现行去库存的各项政策并参考有关房地产库存影响因素的先行研究,选取城镇化率、商品房价格、收入水平和中长期贷款利率作为我国房地产库存的解释变量,进而运用Johansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验分析这些因素对我国房地产库存的影响。结果表明:城镇化率、商品房价格、收入水平中长期贷款利率均会引起房地产库存发生变化,其中城镇化率、商品房价格与中长期贷款利率提高会减少房地产库存,而收入水平则是房地产库存正相关。
[Abstract]:Since 2011, the real estate market of our country has been in the predicament of increasing inventory, which has brought great negative impact to the development of national economy. The central and local governments at all levels have successively introduced a number of policies to encourage housing consumption in order to support the landing of the real estate destocking policy. However, the effect is not significant. Based on the current policies of destocking in China and referring to the research on the influencing factors of real estate inventory, this paper selects the urbanization rate, the price of commercial housing, The income level and medium and long-term loan interest rate are the explanatory variables of real estate inventory in China, and then the effect of these factors on real estate inventory is analyzed by Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test. Commodity housing prices, income levels, medium and long-term loan rates will all cause changes in real estate inventory. Among them, the increase in urbanization rates, commodity housing prices, and medium and long-term loan rates will reduce real estate inventories. And income level is real estate inventory positive correlation.
【作者单位】：武汉大学经济与管理学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金项目“形成有利于科学宏观调控体系中通货膨胀预期的研究”(08CJL013)
【分类号】：F299.23

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