我国住房价格变动的溢出效应研究

发布时间：2018-03-01 17:02

本文关键词： 住房价格溢出效应空间动态面板模型结构突变传导路径　出处：《西南交通大学》2017年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产业既是资本密集、关联度高的产业,又是提供生活必需品的基础行业。住房价格的变动不仅受到政府和百姓的关注,同时也成为学者们研究的热点话题。学者们从不同角度对各类影响住房价格变动的因素进行了研究,而近年来住房价格在空间上表现出的相互关系越来越受到学者的关注。为此,本文首先基于预期理论构建了住房价格变动溢出的数理模型,并运用空间计量分析技术实证检验我国房价变动溢出效应的存在性,进一步考察了住房价格变动溢出的结构突变现象,最后分别研究了住房价格变动均值溢出和风险溢出的传导路径。论文的主要结论如下:(1) 35个大中城市住房价格变动之间存在显著的正空间自相关性;城市房价的空间相关性随城市空间距离的增加而趋于减弱;城市房价的空间相关性随时间的推移逐步增强。(2)住房价格变动的空间动态面板模型的实证结果显示,住房价格滞后项、住房价格空间项和住房价格空间滞后项对住房价格均具有显著的影响:上期本城市住房价格的变化都会导致本期本城市住房价格的负向变动;本期其他城市住房价格对本期本城市住房价格都有显著的正向影响,并且2000公里和3000公里以内的城市房价间的影响最强;当城市间距离较远时,上一期其他城市住房价格的上升都会导致本期本城市住房价格显著地上升,同时在不考虑距离约束时,这种影响的强度最大。说明在控制了其他影响房价变动的因素之后,可以判断我国35个大中城市住房市场存在价格变动溢出效应。(3) 35个城市中有13个城市在样本期内存在显著而稳定的房价变动溢出效应,而剩余22个城市在样本期内同样是存在住房价格变动的溢出效应,但是出现了结构突变的现象。同时结构突变发生的时间主要集中在2007年10月至2009年1月之间,期间最重要的经济时间是2007年爆发的金融危机,说明金融危机可能是导致城市住房价格溢出效应出现结构突变的外部原因。(4)各经济区内主要城市之间存在显著的住房价格变动均值溢出效应,但具有不对称性:不同城市在区域内房价的相互作用中处于不同的地位,区域中经济发展水平越高的城市在住房价格变动的均值溢出中更可能占“主导”地位,经济发展水平越低的城市,其住房价格变动更容易受到其他城市的影响。城市住房价格波动所受到的最大冲击不一定来自其自身,而可能是来自于区域中其他城市房价波动冲击。同时溢出的强度不仅与两城市之间的空间距离相关,而且还受到经济发展差距等其他因素的影响。(5)各经济区中主要城市住房市场之间均存在显著的风险溢出效应。其中,经济发展水平较低或经济发展水平不均衡相较于经济发展水平较高的的地区,城市住房市场的风险溢出更为广泛;在经济发展水平不均衡的地区中,经济发展较高的城市的住房市场更容易对其他城市产生房价的风险溢出,而经济发展水平较低的城市的住房市场更容易受到其他城市房价风险溢出的影响。最后,利用以上的研究结论,为我国房地产市场调控制定提出一些建议。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry is a capital intensive, high degree of industry, and provide the basis for industry of the necessities of life. Housing price changes not only by the government and people's attention, but also become a hot topic of research scholars. Scholars from different angles on the various influencing factors of the changes in housing prices for the study in recent years housing prices in the space to show the relationship has attracted more and more scholars. Therefore, this paper based on the mathematical model of expected theory to construct the housing price change to overflow, and the use of spatial econometric analysis technology empirical existence of our prices spillover effect, further examines the phenomenon of structural changes in housing prices spillover mutation the last transmission path are respectively studied changes in house prices mean spillover and risk spillover. The main conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) 35 large and medium-sized cities housing There was significant positive spatial autocorrelation of spatial correlation between price changes; city prices increased with the increase of city spatial distance weakening; spatial correlation of city housing prices over time gradually increased. (2) the empirical spatial dynamic panel model of housing price changes, the results show that housing prices lagged, the housing price space the housing price and the spatial lag of housing prices have a significant impact on the change of the city: housing prices will lead to the period of the city housing price change negatively; the other city housing prices have a significant positive effect on the period of the city housing prices, and the impact of the 2000 km and 3000 km within the city housing prices among the strongest; when the distance between the city and other city housing prices rose for a period will lead to a rise in the period of the city housing prices significantly, At the same time without considering the distance constraint, the impact of the maximum intensity. After controlling for other factors affecting prices, can determine China's 35 large and medium-sized city housing market price spillover effect. (3) there are 13 city significant and stable prices of spillover effects in the sample period are 35 in the city, while the remaining 22 city in the sample period is also the existence of spillover effects of housing price movements, but there is a structural change phenomenon. At the same time structure mutation occurred mainly in the time between October 2007 to January 2009, during which the most important economic time is the 2007 outbreak of the financial crisis, the financial crisis that may lead to the city housing price spillover effects external causes of structure mutations. (4) there are significant changes in house prices mean spillover effect between the main city of the economic zone, but There is asymmetry in different position: the interaction of different city in the area of housing prices, the higher the level of economic development in the area of the city is more likely to account for a dominant position in the mean spillover housing price movements in the lower level of economic development of the city, the housing price volatility is more susceptible to the other city. The biggest shock wave of city housing prices are not necessarily from its own, and it is likely to come from the area of other city price volatility impact. At the same time between overflow strength not only with the two city space, but also affected by the gap of economic development and other factors. (5) there were significant risk spillover effect between the main city of the economic zone in the housing market. Among them, the low level of economic development or economic development level is not balanced compared to the higher level of economic development of the region, the city The housing market risk spillover is more extensive; in the level of economic development is not balanced in the area, high economic development of the city's housing market prices are more prone to the Risk Spillover to other city, and the low level of economic development of the city's housing market is more susceptible to other city price risk spillover. Finally, above based on the conclusion, put forward some suggestions for the development of China's real estate market regulation.

【学位授予单位】：西南交通大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F299.23

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