居民消费信贷对中国经济增长的影响分析

发布时间：2018-03-04 20:50

本文选题：消费信贷　切入点：VAR模型　出处：《大连理工大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着经济的不断发展,全球经济危机的不断减弱,恢复本国经济成为了各国的首要任务,各国开始不断寻找发展本国经济的有效途径,其中,影响国家经济的三驾马车(投资、消费和进出口贸易)首先被各为发展对象,其中进出口贸易主要与国外经济和投资意向相关,多半是以全球经济为基础,投资和消费都分别包括国内和国外两个部分,虽然对于部分国家来看,投资是迅速增加国内生产总值的最佳途径,但是从长远角度来看,投资具有一定的局限性,提高消费才是提高经济增长的最有效的途径,于是国内消费开始成为提高本国经济的首选指标之一,各国也纷纷开始修订法律政策来保护本国产品的国内消费,以此来带动经济的发展,这时消费信贷成为一颗新星备受世界关注。以中国消费信贷对中国经济发展的影响作为研究对象,主要从消费效应、投资效应以及贸易效应下来诠释经济增长,数据选用中国2003到2013年的数据来建立模型,讨论消费信贷对对经济增长的影响,并利用计量软件进行分析,并得出结论。结果表明,消费效应下,居民消费信贷对国内生产总值具有一个正向的拉动作用,而对消费存在一定程度上负的拉动作用,但长期来看有提高趋势,消费对国内生产总值具有一定程度的拉动作用；投资效应下,居民消费信贷对国内生产总值和投资具有一个较为明显的正向拉动作用,同时投资对国内生产总值也具有一定程度的拉动作用；贸易效应下,居民消费信贷对国内生产总值具有一个较为明显的正向拉动作用,对进出口产生一定程度的抑制作用。
[Abstract]:With the development of the economy and the weakening of the global economic crisis, the recovery of the national economy has become the most important task for all countries. All countries have been looking for effective ways to develop their own economy, among which, the troika (investment) that affects the national economy, (consumption and import and export trade) are first targeted for development. Among them, import and export trade is mainly related to foreign economies and investment intentions. Most of them are based on the global economy. Investment and consumption are both domestic and foreign, respectively. Although investment is the best way to increase GDP rapidly in some countries, in the long run, investment has certain limitations, and increasing consumption is the most effective way to increase economic growth. As a result, domestic consumption began to become one of the preferred indicators for improving the domestic economy, and countries began to revise laws and policies to protect domestic consumption of domestic products in order to promote economic development. At this time consumer credit becomes a new star to get the world attention. Taking the impact of China's consumer credit on China's economic development as the research object, this paper mainly interprets the economic growth under the consumption effect, investment effect and trade effect. The data use the data from 2003 to 2013 to build the model. This paper discusses the impact of consumer credit on economic growth, and analyzes it by means of econometric software, and draws a conclusion. The results show that consumer credit has a positive pulling effect on GDP and negative pulling effect on consumption, but in the long run, it has an increasing trend. Consumption has a certain degree of pulling effect on GDP; under the effect of investment, consumer credit has an obvious positive effect on GDP and investment. At the same time, investment has a certain degree of pulling effect on GDP; under the trade effect, consumer credit has a more obvious positive pull on GDP, and has a certain degree of inhibition on import and export.
【学位授予单位】：大连理工大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.4;F124.1

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