关于沈阳市房价影响因素的研究

发布时间：2018-03-05 05:31

本文选题：多元线性回归模型　切入点：VAR模型　出处：《东北大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在经济生活中,房地产市场成为金融、建筑和股市等经济板块发展的重要推动力,其产业的兴衰影响着国民经济的发展状态,商品房价格是房地产市场的最重要和最直接的反映,是商品房价值的货币表现。沈阳处于东北老工业基地的中心位置,其经济环境资源等在二线城市中有着很重的分量。跟国内其他同级别城市如成都、武汉、哈尔滨相比,沈阳房价相对偏低。但跟沈阳市民的收入来比,房价又的确是高的不少,普通老百姓购买力难以支持现有房价。目前探讨沈阳房价的文章相当有限,从这个角度来看,研究沈阳市房价很有意义。本文先采用了沈阳市1993年到2012年共20年的数据构建多元线性回归模型,实证分析了经济面因素中对房价影响最大的因素,结果表明通货膨胀对沈阳市房价起着决定性作用。接着利用沈阳市2006年到2012年的季度数据,借助VAR模型全面分析了经济面因素和政策面因素对住宅房地产价格的影响,结果表明：政策面因素对房价的影响更为明显,而土地政策又是政策面因素中影响最大的；信贷政策和货币政策对房价的影响相对较小。
[Abstract]:In economic life, the real estate market has become an important driving force for the development of economic plates such as finance, construction and the stock market. The rise and fall of its industries affect the development of the national economy. The price of commercial housing is the most important and direct reflection of the real estate market, as well as the monetary performance of the value of commercial housing. Shenyang is at the center of the old industrial base in Northeast China. Compared with other cities in China, such as Chengdu, Wuhan, and Harbin, housing prices in Shenyang are relatively low. However, compared with the income of Shenyang residents, housing prices are indeed quite high. The purchasing power of ordinary people is difficult to support the existing housing prices. At present, articles on housing prices in Shenyang are quite limited. From this perspective, It is very meaningful to study the housing prices in Shenyang. Firstly, this paper uses the 20 years data from 1993 to 2012 to construct a multivariate linear regression model, and empirically analyzes the factors that have the greatest influence on the housing prices. The results show that inflation plays a decisive role in housing prices in Shenyang. Then, using the quarterly data from 2006 to 2012, the paper analyzes the influence of economic factors and policy factors on housing prices by using VAR model. The results show that the influence of policy factors on house prices is more obvious, while land policy is the most important factor, while credit policy and monetary policy have relatively little effect on house prices.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F726

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