西安市新建商品住宅市场非均衡研究

发布时间：2018-03-06 14:00

本文选题：商品住宅市场　切入点：总量非均衡　出处：《西安建筑科技大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：鉴于美国“次贷危机”和西班牙、爱尔兰等国的“主权债务危机”的教训中存在房地产市场严重供求非均衡的特征共性，基于我国房地产市场投资过热、房价上涨过快、国家加大房地产市场宏观调控力度的宏观环境，结合西安市商品住宅市场发展过程中非均衡的现实，提出了西安市房地产市场非均衡研究的命题。针对作为西安市房地产市场重要组成部分的新建商品住宅市场，以非均衡理论和房地产市场理论为基础，在利用解释结构模型（ISM）对房地产市场供求影响因素进行层次划分的初步定性分析的条件下，建立了双曲线聚合方程模型，分析了1998年至2012年我国实行住宅商品化以来西安市新建商品住宅市场有关年鉴数据，对西安市商品住宅市场非均衡程度进行定量分析，计算了西安市新建商品住宅市场的非均衡度。非均衡度在-0.52和0.58之间波动，两个最值分别出现在1999年和2012年，基本经历了周期性的波动过程，在非均衡度计算基础上设置了西安市场非均衡度警戒线。在对西安市商品住宅市场进行总量非均衡分析的前提下，进一步从投资结构、空置结构和区域结构三个方面对西安市商品住宅市场的结构非均衡状况进行了分析。结构性分析表明，西安市商品住宅市场的投资结构和空置结构相对合理，在区域结构方面，，区域间的差距较大。论文成果对政府房地产市场调控政策制定、企业单位市场决策、个人消费者购房决策有一定的指导意义。
[Abstract]:In view of the "sub-prime mortgage crisis" in the United States and the "sovereign debt crisis" in Spain, Ireland and other countries, there is a common feature of serious imbalance between supply and demand in the real estate market. Based on the overheated investment in the real estate market in our country, the housing price rises too quickly. The state strengthens the macro environment of the real estate market macro-control, combining with the unbalanced reality in the development process of Xi'an commodity housing market, puts forward the proposition of the Xi'an real estate market disequilibrium research. As an important part of the real estate market in Xi'an, the new commercial housing market is based on the theory of disequilibrium and the theory of real estate market. The hyperbolic aggregation equation model is established under the condition of using the explanatory structure model (ISM) to analyze the influence factors of supply and demand in real estate market. This paper analyzes the yearbook data of the newly built commercial housing market in Xi'an since the commercialization of housing in China from 1998 to 2012, and makes a quantitative analysis of the non-equilibrium degree of the commodity housing market in Xi'an. The non-equilibrium degree of the newly built commodity housing market in Xi'an is calculated. The disequilibrium degree fluctuates between -0.52 and 0.58, and the two most important values appear in 1999 and 2012, respectively. Based on the calculation of the disequilibrium degree, the warning line of the disequilibrium degree of Xi'an market is set up. On the premise of carrying out the disequilibrium analysis of the total amount of the commodity housing market in Xi'an, the investment structure is further studied. The structural disequilibrium of commodity housing market in Xi'an is analyzed from three aspects of vacant structure and regional structure. The structural analysis shows that the investment structure and vacant structure of Xi'an commodity housing market are relatively reasonable, and the regional structure is relatively reasonable. The gap between regions is large. The results of this paper have certain guiding significance for government real estate market regulation and control policy making, enterprise unit market decision making and individual consumer housing purchase decision.
【学位授予单位】：西安建筑科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23

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