基于行业特征的资源型上市公司财务危机预警研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 08:29

本文选题：资源型上市公司　切入点：行业特征　出处：《青海大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：一般企业的财务风险是客观存在的,若企业抵御风险的能力较弱,且不能对风险进行有效管理,则可能会面临财务危机的发生,因此,如何对众多企业的财务状况进行合理分类,针对面临财务危机的企业构建一个科学的财务危机预警模型,不论对于企业本身,还是对于投资者、证券监管者等其他利益相关者,都具有重要的意义。论文以风险管理理论、危机管理理论等为理论基础,对财务危机及财务危机预警等概念进行界定,对资源型上市公司按行业进行分类,分析资源型上市公司所处行业特征,构建嵌入行业特征因素的资源型上市公司财务危机预警变量框架体系,探究综合考虑资源型企业的行业特征因素后,是否对于预测资源型上市公司的财务状况达到良好的效果性。以资源型上市公司为研究对象,选取我国2013—2016年沪深两市首次因财务异常而被实施ST的25家A股上市公司,按照1:1的比例选取同年度、相同行业且被实施ST前一年末总资产规模相等或者相近的25家非ST公司作为配对样本,将这50家公司数据作为研究样本。选取14家ST公司及配对的14家非ST公司作为建模组样本,选取11家ST公司及配对的11家非ST公司作为预测集样本。利用因子分析法和Logistic回归分析法构建了资源型上市公司的财务危机预测模型,对模型的预测效果进行检验得出预测准确率达到86.36%。研究结果表明:财务层面,资源型上市公司盈利能力、资产管理能力、偿债能力和现金流量能力的不足能引起财务危机的发生;非财务层面,资源型上市公司社会责任表现、公司治理结构和人力资本结构的不合规能引起财务危机的发生。针对研究结论提出了资源型上市公司防范财务危机的对策建议。
[Abstract]:The financial risk of the general enterprise is objective, if the ability of resisting the risk is weak, and the enterprise can not manage the risk effectively, it may face the financial crisis. How to reasonably classify the financial situation of many enterprises and construct a scientific financial crisis warning model for the enterprises facing financial crisis, not only for the enterprises themselves, but also for investors, securities regulators and other stakeholders. On the basis of risk management theory and crisis management theory, this paper defines the concepts of financial crisis and financial crisis warning, classifies resource-based listed companies by industry. This paper analyzes the industry characteristics of resource-based listed companies, constructs the early-warning variable system of financial crisis of resource-based listed companies embedded in industry characteristics, and probes into the comprehensive consideration of the industry characteristics of resource-based enterprises. Whether it is effective to predict the financial situation of resource-based listed companies. Taking resource-based listed companies as the research object, 25 A-share listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets were selected for the first time in 2013-2016 because of financial anomalies. According to the ratio of 1: 1, 25 non-ST companies in the same year, in the same industry and with equal or similar total assets at the end of the year prior to the implementation of St, were selected as paired samples. The 50 company data were used as the study sample. 14 St companies and 14 matched non-St companies were selected as modeling group samples. Taking 11 St companies and 11 matched non-St companies as forecasting samples, the financial crisis prediction model of resource-based listed companies is constructed by factor analysis and Logistic regression analysis. The prediction accuracy of the model is 86.36. The results show that the financial level, the profitability of resource-based listed companies, the ability of asset management, The deficiency of solvency and cash flow ability can cause financial crisis. In non-financial aspect, the social responsibility performance of resource-based listed companies. The financial crisis can be caused by the nonconformity of corporate governance structure and human capital structure. This paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions for the resource-based listed companies to prevent the financial crisis in view of the conclusions of the research.
【学位授予单位】：青海大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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