居民金融资产与房地产价格联动关系研究

发布时间：2018-03-09 08:34

本文选题：居民金融资产　切入点：房地产价格　出处：《浙江财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：居民金融资产以及房地产价格都是关系到我国社会稳定和国计民生的重要组成部分，也是国家宏观调控的重点，研究这两者之间的联动关系具有较强的实践意义。只有对居民金融资产和房地产价格之间的联动关系进行研究分析，才可以在制定宏观经济的政策方面采取适合于当时经济环境的措施，将房地产价格控制在一个合理水平范围内，，保证经济持续、健康发展。本文分别从理论层面和实证层面分析了居民金融资产与房地产价格之间的相关关系。在理论研究层面主要是通过分别列述前人对居民金融资产和房地产价格变动影响因素以及财富效应的研究成果，并在其基础上结合居民金融资产与房地产价格与调控政策的发展趋势和变革状况，阐述居民收入中的金融资产以及重要的实物资产——房地产之间的相关关系。在实证方面，本文主要从以下六个方面对二者从2000年至2012年的季度数据进行研究：一是对时间序列的基本统计数据进行描述，通过直观的描述阐述两者之间的相关关系；二是对时间序列进行单位根检验，寻找非平稳序列；三是进行协整检验说明居民金融资产和房地产价格之间的长期稳定关系；四是通过误差修正模型弥补短期调整行为；五是通过Granger因果检验考察居民金融资产和房地产价格之间的因果关系；六是用脉冲响应函数分别检验各个居民金融资产受到一个冲击后房地产价格的变化以及房地产价格受到一个冲击后居民金融资产受到冲击的程度。对理论和实证的分析可以如下结论：手持现金、储蓄存款、股票和债券都一定程度上与房地产价格有正相关的关系，在因果关系上，手持现金、储蓄存款与房地产价格之间的影响关系更加密切。在此基础上本文从微观和宏观两个视角提出了相应的建议。
[Abstract]:Residents' financial assets and real estate prices are important components of social stability and national economy and people's livelihood in China, and are also the focus of the state's macro-control. It is of great practical significance to study the linkage between the two. Only the linkage between financial assets and real estate prices of residents is studied and analyzed. In order to make macroeconomic policies, we can take measures suitable for the economic environment at that time, control the real estate price within a reasonable level, and ensure the sustained and healthy development of the economy. This paper analyzes the correlation between residents' financial assets and real estate prices from the theoretical and empirical aspects. The results of the research on the influence factors and the wealth effect, On the basis of it, the paper expounds the relationship between financial assets in residents' income and real estate, which is an important real estate asset, combining with the development trend and reform situation of residents' financial assets and real estate price and regulation and control policies. This paper mainly from the following six aspects of the two from 2000 to 2012 quarterly data were studied: one is to describe the basic statistical data of the time series, through intuitive description of the relationship between the two; The second is the unit root test of time series, the third is cointegration test to explain the long-term stable relationship between residents' financial assets and real estate prices, the fourth is to make up the short-term adjustment behavior through error correction model. Fifthly, the causality between financial assets and real estate prices is investigated by Granger causality test. Sixthly, the impulse response function is used to examine the change of real estate price and the impact of real estate price. Theoretical and empirical analysis can be concluded as follows: handheld cash, savings deposits, stocks and bonds to some extent have a positive correlation with real estate prices, in causality, hand-held cash, The relationship between savings deposits and real estate prices is more close. On this basis, this paper puts forward corresponding suggestions from the micro and macro perspectives.
【学位授予单位】：浙江财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.5;F299.23

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