我国上市公司盈利预测信息披露问题研究

发布时间：2018-03-12 06:48

本文选题：上市公司　切入点：盈利预测　出处：《江西财经大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在资本市场不断发展的过程中,盈利预测信息将在未来的财务报告的发展趋势中变得越来越受到关注,对投资者投资决策的影响也越来越大。盈利预测信息有助于解决上市公司管理层与外部信息使用者之间的信息不对称问题,能够有效地减少利用内幕信息进行内幕交易的行为,促进证券市场的公正公平。盈利预测信息还能够帮助社会合理配置资源,有助于降低生成信息、传播信息、分析信息和解释信息所耗费的资源,并在一定程度上减少私人寻找信息的成本,有效地提高了证券市场的效率。1993年我国国务院首次规定公开招股说明书中必须披露盈利预测信息。一直到2001年3月,我国上市公司盈利预测信息披露制度处于强制性披露阶段,但是在这个阶段盈利预测信息的质量却一直不高,甚至有一些上市公司故意欺骗投资者,披露的盈利预测信息是虚假的或者误导性的,给投资者带来了很大的困扰。因此,2001年3月证券监管部门将盈利预测制度改为自愿性披露制度,并在随后的时间逐渐发布了一些关于盈利预测的规范性文件。但由于我国证券市场起步较晚,资本市场还处于弱式有效的阶段,也未建立完善的盈利预测信息披露体系,我国上市公司盈利预测信息披露还存在着披露意愿不强、质量不高、不全面、不及时等一系列问题。所以本文选择对我国上市公司的盈利预测信息披露进行研究,采用规范研究的手段,希望通过相关研究为解决我国出现的问题提供切实可靠的建议,促进我国上市公司健康发展,维护广大投资者的切身权益,提高资本市场的有效性。本文从我国盈利预测披露的现状出发,结合披露出现的问题,认为以下几个方面是造成这些问题的原因：一是我国上市公司的治理结构不合理；二是披露受到成本效益原则的制约；三是我国缺乏有效的盈利预测信息供给和需求；四是我国盈利预测信息披露制度不完善；五是我国缺乏有效的盈利预测信息监管机制。美国是证券市场最成熟的国家,也是信息披露制度最为完善的国家,并且已经形成了较为完善的盈利预测信息披露制度和监管体系。因此借鉴美国这方面的先进经验,有助于推动我国上市公司盈利预测信息披露制度的建立和完善。美国的盈利预测信息披露制度经过了从禁止披露盈利预测信息的阶段到自愿性披露盈利预测信息阶段。我国可以从美国借鉴的经验包括以下方面：一是对盈利预测信息编制的目的、作用、基本假设及基本原则,盈利预测的内容、形式及范围,盈利预测编制的基本方法与步骤等作出原则性规范,建立比较完善的盈利预测信息披露准则；二是引进预先警示原则和安全港规则,建立盈利预测披露的免责制度,降低上市公司的诉讼风险；三是建立有效的盈利预测信息更新更正制度,保护投资者的权益；四是建立由财务分析师为主体的独立专家预测体系,促进盈利预测供给方的竞争,提高盈利预测信息的可靠性。在对我国上市公司盈利预测信息的现状、问题及产生的原因进行分析,并借鉴美国的先进经验的基础上,本文对完善我国上市公司盈利预测信息披露提出如下建议：第一,通过引进机构投资者,平衡股权结构和完善董事会、监事会制度来加强我国上市公司治理；第二,完善我国上市公司盈利预测信息披露制度,如采取建立我国盈利预测信息披露的专门性法规、实行盈利预测信息强制性与自愿性披露相结合的制度和建立上市公司盈利预测信息披露的免责制度等措施；第三,强化会计师事务所对盈利预测信息的审核、完善上市公司盈利预测信息披露的民事责任承担制度和加强中介机构的监督作用,培养高素质财务分析师,最终达到加大对上市公司盈利预测信息披露的监管力度的效果；第四,加快发展债券市场,提高我国中小投资者的素质,壮大机构投资者的队伍,以增加我国盈利预测信息的有效需求。
[Abstract]:In the development process of the capital market, the profit forecast information will be the developing trend in the future of the financial report becomes more and more attention, the investment decision-making influence is also growing. The problem of information asymmetry between the information will help to solve the management of listed companies and external information users can effectively reduce the profit forecast insider trading behavior using insider information, to promote the stock market fair. The profit forecast information can also help social rational allocation of resources, help to reduce the generation of information, dissemination of information, information analysis and interpretation of information resource consumption, and reduce the cost of private search for information in a certain extent, can effectively improve the the efficiency of.1993 stock market in China under the State Council for the first time the IPO must disclose earnings forecast information in the description. Until March 2001, China Company profit forecast information disclosure system at the stage of compulsory disclosure, but at this stage the profit forecast information quality has not high, even some listed companies deliberately deceive investors, earnings forecast information disclosure is false or misleading to investors, has brought great distress. Therefore, the securities regulatory authorities in March 2001 the profit forecast system to the voluntary disclosure system, and then gradually released some time on earnings forecast normative documents. But because of China's securities market started late, the capital market is still in the stage of weak effective, also not established the profit forecast information disclosure system of Listed Companies in China, the profit forecast information disclosure there is disclosed the will is not strong, the quality is not high, not comprehensive, not a series of problems. So this paper chooses the profit growth of Listed Companies in China Information disclosure is studied, and normative research methods are adopted. We hope to provide reliable suggestions for solving the problems in China through related research, so as to promote the healthy development of listed companies, safeguard the rights and interests of investors and improve the effectiveness of capital market.
This article from our earnings forecast disclosure of the status quo, combined with the disclosure of the problems that the following is the cause of these problems: one is the governance structure of Listed Companies in China is unreasonable; the two is restricted by the disclosure of cost benefit principle; the three is China's lack of effective profit forecast information of supply and demand; four is our profit forecast information disclosure system is not perfect; the five is China's lack of effective supervision mechanism of earnings forecast information.
The United States is the most mature stock market in the country, but also the information disclosure system is the most perfect country, and has formed a system of information disclosure and supervision of the complete system of earnings forecast. Therefore learn from the advanced experience of the United States, will help promote China's listed companies earnings forecast to establish and improve the information disclosure system of the United States. The profit forecast information disclosure system after the disclosure of earnings forecasts from the stage to the prohibition of voluntary disclosure of earnings forecast information. Our country can learn from the experience from the United States including the following aspects: one is the profit forecast information compilation purpose, function, basic assumptions and basic principles, the profit forecast the content, form and scope. The basic methods and steps of compiling the earnings forecast to make regulation, perfecting the profit forecast information disclosure standards; two is the introduction of the original pre warning And the safe harbor rules, establish the earnings forecast disclosure exemption system, reduce litigation risk of listed companies; the three is to establish an effective profit forecast information update and correction system, protect the rights and interests of investors; the four is the establishment of independent experts from financial analysts as the main body of the forecasting system, promote the profit forecast of supply side competition, improve the reliability of earnings forecast information.
In the present situation of information of earnings forecast of Chinese listed companies, analyzes the problems and reasons, basis and learn the advanced experience of the United States, the thesis puts forward some suggestions on perfecting the information disclosure of listed company earnings forecast: first, through the introduction of institutional investors, equity structure and perfecting the board of directors, board of supervisors system to strengthen the management of Listed Companies in China; second, improve the predictive information disclosure system of listed companies' earnings, such as special regulations to establish our earnings forecast information disclosure, the disclosure of information to predict the combination of mandatory and voluntary earnings of listed companies profit forecast system and the establishment of exemption system of information disclosure measures; third, strengthening the accounting firm to audit the earnings forecast information, improve the predictive information disclosure of listed company earnings of civil liability system and strengthening medium machine The supervisory role of the training of high-quality financial analysts, to intensify supervision of information disclosure of listed companies earnings forecast the effect; fourth, accelerate development of the bond market, improve the quality of medium and small investors in China, expanding the ranks of institutional investors, with effective demand forecast information to increase China's profit.

【学位授予单位】：江西财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

【共引文献】