房地产开发风险管理与对策研究

发布时间：2018-03-12 16:02

本文选题：风险管理　切入点：风险评价　出处：《天津大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：房地产行业在改革开放以后得到了迅速发展，已经成为国民经济的重要支柱，也带动了相关产业与区域经济发展。但我国房地产市场目前仍处于初级阶段，许多房地产开发商缺乏风险意识，甚至存在违规操作行为，使房地产企业在营运过程中存在巨大风险，，也不利于地产行业长远发展。此外还存在着开发周期较长、土地具有不可移动性、投资巨大等因素所导致的风险。房地产企业要实现集约化与精细化发展，就必须要对风险进行科学评估与有效监控。有鉴于此，本文通过分析现状与研究文献，应用经济学与管理学理论分析房地产风险，认为主要来源于土地政策变更、经济形势波动、开发时机选择、开发周期等方面，风险种类主要包括市场定位风险、自然环境风险、政治经济风险、投资时机风险、竞争风险等，并分析地产开发风险的独特特点。在此基础上，设计了房地产风险评价的指标体系，包括技术风险、管理风险、经济环境风险与政策风险等五个方面，并应用层次分析法（AHP）建立了风险评估模型。将该评估模型应用于具体案例实践，分析其可行性，最后得出结论该风险评估模型切实有效。本文最后提出了房地产风险开发风险防控的建议，主要包括强化施工安全管理、强化人力资源管理、减少成本支出、关注土地政策等。
[Abstract]:The real estate industry has developed rapidly after the reform and opening up, has become an important pillar of the national economy, has also led to the development of related industries and regional economy. However, the real estate market in our country is still in its initial stage. Many real estate developers lack the awareness of risk and even violate the regulations, which makes the real estate enterprises have huge risks in the course of operation, and is not conducive to the long-term development of the real estate industry. In addition, there is a long development period. The risk caused by land immobility and huge investment must be scientifically evaluated and effectively monitored in order to realize intensive and fine development of real estate enterprises. In view of this, through analyzing the present situation and the research literature, applying the theory of economics and management to analyze the risk of real estate, this paper thinks that it mainly comes from the change of land policy, the fluctuation of economic situation, the choice of development opportunity, the development cycle and so on. The types of risks include market positioning risk, natural environment risk, political and economic risk, investment opportunity risk, competition risk and so on. The index system of real estate risk evaluation is designed, which includes five aspects: technical risk, management risk, economic environment risk and policy risk. A risk assessment model is established by using the Analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The model is applied to practical cases and its feasibility is analyzed. Finally, the paper puts forward some suggestions for risk prevention and control of real estate risk development, including strengthening construction safety management, strengthening human resource management, reducing cost and expenditure, paying attention to land policy and so on.
【学位授予单位】：天津大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.233.46

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