我国商业银行中小企业信贷风险评估体系研究

发布时间：2018-03-14 12:23

本文选题：中小企业　切入点：信贷风险评估体系　出处：《新疆大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中小企业是国家经济的重要组成部分，在促进经济发展、保障社会稳定、推动技术创新等方面起着重要的作用，但其发展受到融资难这一问题的限制。我国企业获得资金的主要渠道是银行贷款，但银行缺乏向中小企业提供信贷支持的意愿，这是中小企业和商业银行之间的信息不对称导致中小企业信贷风险较大，贷款管理成本较高所造成的。此外，中小企业信贷业务是商业银行的主要利润增长点，信贷风险是商业银行面对的主要风险，商业银行对中小企业信贷风险控制是其在实践中面临的难题。解决这一难题的有力手段是在银行内部建立一套针对中小企业特点，能有效评估信贷风险的评估体系。本文首先指出商业银行的稳定对国家金融系统的重要意义和中小企业在国民经济中具有举足轻重的地位，阐述中小企业和信贷风险的定义，分析中小企业资金需求特点。接着回顾信贷风险评估的相关理论，阐述现阶段主流的信贷风险评估方法并指出各个方法的优缺点，引出Logistic回归模型。并在现有中小企业信贷风险评估理论的基础上，结合中小企业资金需求特点构建中小企业信贷风险评估体系。然后阐述Logistic回归模型原理，构建分析模型，并根据构建的中小企业信贷风险评估体系和创业板上市公司以及中国证券业协会网站上公布年度报告的非上市公司的信息，利用SPSS软件对影响中小企业信贷风险的评估体系进行实证分析。最后结合实证分析的结论，对我国商业银行现有的中小企业信贷风险评估体系提出改进意见。本文根据中小企业的实际情况，保证了数据和信息的真实性，使本文的主题更加明确，更加具有操作性和说服力。其次，本文专门研究了针对中小企业特点的风险评估体系，引入纳税增长率、“克强指数”中的用电增长率等指标，而不是简单依据现有的大中型企业信贷风险评估体系，并在建立风险评估体系中应该着重关注的方面提出了自己的看法。本文最后得出结论：财务基本指标中的现金债务比率对信贷风险有一定影响；企业成长潜力指标中的销售增长率对中小企业的信贷风险有较大影响，，年纳税额增长率和用电增长率对中小企业的信贷风险有一定影响。
[Abstract]:As an important part of the national economy, small and medium-sized enterprises play an important role in promoting economic development, ensuring social stability and promoting technological innovation. However, its development is limited by the difficulty of financing. The main channel for Chinese enterprises to obtain funds is bank loans, but the banks lack the willingness to provide credit support to small and medium-sized enterprises. This is caused by the asymmetric information between small and medium-sized enterprises and commercial banks, which leads to the higher credit risk and higher loan management cost of small and medium-sized enterprises. In addition, the credit business of small and medium-sized enterprises is the main profit growth point of commercial banks. Credit risk is the main risk faced by commercial banks, and it is difficult for commercial banks to control the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises. An evaluation system that can effectively assess credit risk. This paper first points out the importance of the stability of commercial banks to the national financial system and the pivotal position of SMEs in the national economy, and expounds the definition of SMEs and credit risk. This paper analyzes the characteristics of the capital demand of small and medium-sized enterprises, then reviews the relevant theories of credit risk assessment, expounds the mainstream credit risk assessment methods at this stage, and points out the advantages and disadvantages of each method. The Logistic regression model is introduced. On the basis of the existing theory of credit risk assessment of small and medium-sized enterprises, the credit risk assessment system of small and medium-sized enterprises is constructed according to the characteristics of the capital demand of small and medium-sized enterprises. Then, the principle of Logistic regression model is expounded, and the analysis model is constructed. And according to the information of the credit risk assessment system for small and medium-sized enterprises and the listed companies on the gem and the non-listed companies published on the website of the China Securities Industry Association, This paper makes an empirical analysis on the credit risk assessment system of small and medium-sized enterprises by using SPSS software. Finally, combining with the conclusion of the empirical analysis, the paper puts forward some suggestions to improve the credit risk assessment system of small and medium-sized enterprises in China's commercial banks. According to the actual situation of small and medium-sized enterprises, this paper ensures the authenticity of data and information, makes the subject of this paper more clear, more operable and persuasive. Secondly, this paper specifically studies the risk assessment system according to the characteristics of small and medium-sized enterprises. This paper introduces tax growth rate and electricity consumption growth rate in Keqiang Index, instead of simply according to the existing credit risk assessment system of large and medium-sized enterprises, and puts forward its own views in establishing risk assessment system. Finally, the paper concludes that the cash debt ratio in the basic financial indicators has a certain impact on the credit risk, and the sales growth rate in the growth potential index has a great impact on the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises. The growth rate of annual tax and electricity consumption has certain influence on the credit risk of small and medium-sized enterprises.
【学位授予单位】：新疆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.4

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