券商对大盘走势预测的实证分析

发布时间：2018-03-18 21:53

本文选题：券商　切入点：大盘走势　出处：《浙江工商大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：我国股票市场虽然经历了 20多年快速发展,但仍然还是一个由散户主导的市场。大多数散户以短期投资为主,他们的决策路径往往首先基于大盘的走势判断,然后进行个股选择。但缺乏专业的知识和投资分析技术,多数散户对大盘的走势判断主要依赖于券商的分析。因此,券商对大盘的走势预测很大程度上影响了散户的投资决策。然而,券商的预测到底有多大的可信度呢?他们的预测结果能真正指导投资者吗?不同类别券商对大盘走势预测的可信度是否存在差异?对于这些问题,目前国内鲜有学者进行系统的研究,从而使得券商的预测价值倍受散户质疑。基于此,本研究以券商对大盘的走势预测为研究对象,首先对相关理论进行系统梳理;然后,构建预测误差测度方法、误差标准和好友指数;在此基础上选取2011-2015年不同券商对大盘趋势预测和实际走势作为分析样本,运用统计软件EXCEL、SPSS19.0和Eviews8.0进行对比分析;最后通过相关理论探讨其中的偏差原因,从而为散户投资者进行理性的投资决策提供必要的指导。本研究主要结论有:(1)券商对大盘的走势预测误差较大,对趋势的判断能力一般,散户不能根据券商的预测结果简单判断大盘的未来走势;(2)不同类别券商的预测误差存在显著性差异,其中C类券商预测误差显著低于A类和B类券商,因此,低等级券商的预测结论对散户更具指导价值;(3)不同市场态势下,券商的预测存在显著差异,在熊市中券商的预测误差较牛市中稍小,且券商对趋势的判断在熊市中比在牛市中更乐观;(4)当券商对大盘趋势高度一致看多或看空时,散户最好采用逆向操作方法。本研究创新点在两个方面:一是在研究内容上针对券商对大盘走势的预测进行研究,在一定程度上弥补了国内关于券商对大盘走势区间预测误差研究的不足;二是系统全面选取最新的样本数据,对我国不同等级券商的大盘走势预测误差进行对比,从而使得研究结果更具针对性和时效性。
[Abstract]:Although China's stock market has experienced rapid development for more than 20 years, it is still a market dominated by retail investors. Then the stock selection. But lack of professional knowledge and investment analysis technology, most retail market trend judgment mainly depends on the analysis of securities firms. Brokerage forecasts for the market have a large impact on retail investment decisions. However, how credible is the broker's forecast? Can their forecasts really guide investors? Is there any difference in the credibility of the market trend forecast for different types of securities firms? For these problems, few domestic scholars carry out systematic research, which makes the forecast value of securities companies more doubtful. Based on this, this study takes the trend prediction of securities market as the research object. First of all, the related theories are systematically combed; then, the prediction error measure method, error standard and friend index are constructed. Based on this, different securities companies are selected to forecast the trend and the actual trend of the market from 2011 to 2015 as the analysis samples. The statistical software excel SPSS 19.0 and Eviews8.0 are used to compare and analyze. Finally, the causes of deviation are discussed through relevant theories. Thus providing necessary guidance for retail investors to make rational investment decisions. The main conclusions of this study are: (1) the stock market trend forecast error is large, and the judgment ability to the trend is general. Retail investors can not simply judge the future trend of the market according to the forecast results of securities companies.) there are significant differences in the prediction errors of different types of securities firms, among which the forecasting errors of class C securities firms are significantly lower than those of class A and B securities firms, so, The prediction results of low-grade securities firms have more guiding value for retail investors. Under different market situations, there are significant differences in the prediction of securities firms, and the prediction error of securities firms in bear market is slightly smaller than that in bull market. And securities firms' judgment of trends is more optimistic in bear markets than in bull markets.) when securities firms are highly consistent with the trend of the market, they are either bullish or bullish. Retail investors had better use reverse operation method. The innovation of this research is in two aspects: first, in the research content of the stock market trend forecast for securities companies to carry out research. To a certain extent, it makes up for the deficiency of the domestic research on the interval prediction error of securities companies' market trend. Secondly, it systematically selects the latest sample data and compares the market trend prediction errors of different grades of securities companies in our country. In order to make the research results more targeted and timely.
【学位授予单位】：浙江工商大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51

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