运用系统动力学对武汉市城市土地集约利用预警研究

发布时间：2018-03-20 06:06

本文选题：武汉市　切入点：系统动力学　出处：《浙江大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城市土地集约利用是解决当前城市化过程中人地矛盾、发展与资源矛盾的根本措施和关键环节,城市土地集约利用预警是对城市土地集约利用系统演化趋势的事前控制和管理。本文将城市土地集约利用定义为综合性系统,选取武汉市为研究区域,应用系统论刻画城市土地集约利用系统的概念模型,以其结构构建系统动力学仿真模型,以其属性构建预警指标体系,并依据预警理论及方法合理划分预警指标的警度,预测2012-2020年武汉市城市土地集约利用警情及其大小,提出相应的排警对策。本文的研究成果是对城市土地集约利用系统仿真及多指标综合预警的实践创新,主要的研究结论有以下三点： (1)武汉市城市土地集约利用系统由土地利用、人口、经济和环境四个子系统组成,子系统相互作用的核心是生产要素的投入产出。基于结构分析构建的城市土地集约利用系统动力学模型,从逻辑上梳理各子系统内部及之间的因果关系,合理设计相应变量和建立关系方程,能够很好地仿真武汉市城市土地集约利用系统；基于结构属性构建的城市土地集约利用预警指标体系,通过科学合理地划分警度,能够实现从系统、子系统和单因子三层次对未来警情的判定。 (2)武汉市城市土地集约利用系统在2012-2020年间有轻警到中警的趋势,其主要来源于三方面：一是,城市土地利用效率不够,城市土地的扩张速度大于城市人口发展速度,造成人口-土地利用子系统协调性的轻警；二是,城市土地利用强度不够,城市土地以占用耕地、未利用地等方式扩张,造成耕地和生态用地严重警情；三是,城市土地利用方向与城市居民生活需求不匹配,造成城市土地集约利用社会效益巨警。 (3)针对武汉市城市土地集约利用系统可能出现的警情,提出从保证土地资源安全、制定城市土地利用规划、生产要素适度规模组合投入三方面制定排警措施,设计新增建设用地占用耕地比例、建筑密度、容积率、人均用地面积建设投入比例、劳动者工资水平、技术贡献系数等变量作为政策模拟的可控因素。
[Abstract]:Intensive utilization of urban land is the fundamental measure and key link to solve the contradiction between man and land, development and resources in the process of urbanization. The early warning of intensive utilization of urban land is the prior control and management of the evolution trend of urban land intensive utilization system. This paper defines intensive utilization of urban land as a comprehensive system, selects Wuhan as the research area, describes the conceptual model of intensive utilization of urban land by system theory, and constructs a system dynamic simulation model with its structure. According to the theory and method of early warning, the early warning index system is constructed with its attributes, and the warning degree of early warning index is reasonably divided, and the police situation and its magnitude of intensive utilization of urban land in Wuhan from 2012 to 2020 are forecasted. The research result of this paper is the practice innovation of the system simulation of intensive utilization of urban land and multi-index comprehensive early warning. The main research conclusions are as follows:. The urban intensive land use system in Wuhan is composed of four subsystems: land use, population, economy and environment. The core of subsystem interaction is the input and output of factors of production. The dynamic model of intensive utilization of urban land based on structural analysis is used to sort out the causality within and between subsystems logically. Reasonable design of corresponding variables and establishment of relational equations can well simulate the intensive utilization system of urban land in Wuhan, and the early warning index system of intensive utilization of urban land based on structural attributes can be divided scientifically and reasonably. Can realize from the system, subsystem and single factor three levels to judge the future situation. (2) the urban land intensive utilization system in Wuhan has the tendency of light warning to middle police in 2012-2020, which mainly comes from three aspects: first, the urban land use efficiency is not enough, and the urban land expansion rate is faster than the urban population development speed. The second is that the intensity of urban land use is not enough and urban land expands in such ways as occupying cultivated land and unused land, resulting in a serious warning situation of cultivated land and ecological land. The direction of urban land use does not match with the living needs of urban residents, which results in great social benefits of intensive use of urban land. (3) in view of the possible police situation of urban land intensive utilization system in Wuhan, the paper puts forward three measures to prevent police from ensuring the safety of land resources, formulating urban land use planning, and combining the appropriate scale of production factors. Such variables as the proportion of cultivated land occupied by the newly added construction land, the building density, the volume ratio, the proportion of construction input per capita, the wage level of workers and the coefficient of technical contribution are the controllable factors of policy simulation.
【学位授予单位】：浙江大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;N941.3

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