会计稳健性对分析师盈余预测影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 01:01

本文选题：盈余预测　切入点：会计稳健性　出处：《郑州大学》2017年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：随着我国经济发展,资本市场也达到了近几年的新繁荣,而证券分析师作为资本市场的中间力量能够连接上市公司与投资者。投资者为了有效的认识企业,了解企业并做出决策,对证券分析师的盈余预测准确性提出了更高要求。我国机构的不断发展,市场监管力量的增强使分析师得到越来越多投资者的重视。为了更好的服务资本市场,研究分析师的盈余预测显得非常重要。而稳健性原则是企业会计核算中运用的一项重要原则,是影响会计信息质量的重要一环,同时也能降低信息的不对称程度。分析师盈余预测的质量主要受自身识别判断能力、公司披露信息以及私下搜集消息能力的影响,会计稳健性又是影响公司披露信息质量的主要因素,因此本文就从会计稳健性角度来着重分析会计稳健性对分析师盈余预测的影响。本文将企业生命周期融合到研究中,着重研究处在不同阶段的企业会计稳健性对分析师盈余预测的影响。以2007年-2014年A股上市的公司为研究对象,采用实证的研究方法用Stata进行回归分析,最终得出了如下结论:(1)在其他条件不变的情况下会计稳健性与分析师盈余预测误差及分歧度是负相关关系。会计稳健性能够抑制分析师盈余预测的不准确性。(2)成长期、成熟期与衰退期三个阶段会计稳健性对分析师盈余预测误差与分歧度影响程度不同,不过都是负相关关系。(3)在三个生命周期中,衰退期的会计稳健性对分析师的盈余预测误差影响程度最深,而从成长期到成熟期再到衰退期会计稳健性对分析师盈余预测分歧度的影响程度也是越来越强。本文的研究成果对投资者、分析师以及上市公司都有现实意义:对于投资者来说,有利于更加准确的判断出各个企业的盈余,有助于其做出更准确的投资决策,获得更好的投资回报;对于分析师来说,能够正确的识别盈余预测过程中的影响因素,进而能够进行有效的预测,为分析师盈余预测的准确性提供一个建议;上市公司特别是处在衰退期的企业可以增强会计信息稳健性,这样有利于提高对外披露的财务信息质量,进而能够吸引更多分析师,分析师的跟踪有助于降低公司的资本成本,提高其公司价值。
[Abstract]:With the development of economy in China, the capital market has reached a new boom in recent years, the securities analysts as the backbone of the capital market to connect the listed companies and investors. Investors in order to know the company, understand the business and make decisions on securities analysts' earnings forecasts put forward higher requirements. The accuracy of the continuous development of China the mechanism, strengthening market supervision power that the analyst has got more and more attention of investors. In order to better serve the capital market research analyst earnings forecast is very important. But the conservatism principle is an important principle in enterprise accounting, affecting the quality of accounting information is an important part, but also can reduce the degree of asymmetric information. The quality of earnings forecast is mainly affected by the self recognition judgment ability, information disclosure and privately collected news on the capacity of Loud, accounting conservatism is also a main factor affecting the company's information disclosure quality, so this paper from the perspective of accounting conservatism focuses on Accounting Conservatism prediction on analysts' earnings. In this paper the enterprise life cycle into research, focuses on the impact of in the different stages of enterprise accounting conservatism prediction on analysts. In 2007 -2014 A shares listed company as the research object, adopt the method of empirical study using Stata regression analysis, the final conclusions are as follows: (1) under the same conditions of accounting conservatism and earnings forecast error and divergence is negatively correlated. Accounting conservatism can inhibit the earnings forecast inaccuracy. (2) the growth period, mature period and decline period of three stages of accounting conservatism to forecast earnings error and divergence degree of influence is different, but Are negatively correlated. (3) in the three cycle, recession period accounting conservatism of analyst earnings forecast error and the influence degree of the deep, from growing to maturity and recession of accounting conservatism on the earnings forecast the influence degree of divergence is more and more strong. The research results of this paper investors, analysts and has practical significance for investors: listed companies, is conducive to more accurately determine the corporate earnings, help to make more accurate investment decisions, better investment returns; for analysts, can influential factors in the process of the correct recognition of earnings forecast, which can effectively the prediction, provide a suggestion for the prediction accuracy of earnings of listed companies; especially in the recession of the enterprises can enhance the accounting conservatism, which is beneficial to improving the The quality of high disclosure of financial information can then attract more analysts, and the tracking of analysts will help to reduce the cost of the company's capital and improve its company value.

【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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