我国上市银行绩效对银行股价的影响研究

发布时间：2018-03-22 01:24

本文选题：上市银行　切入点：银行绩效　出处：《郑州大学》2014年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：银行业作为金融业的三大支柱之一,对中国经济的发展起着举足轻重的作用,银行股作为权重股,在资本市场上同样具有关键作用,银行业经营属于实体经济的范畴,银行股价波动属于虚拟经济的范畴,研究我国上市银行绩效对银行股价的影响,有助于推动资本市场健康发展,提升上市银行的国际竞争力。本文在前人研究的基础上,根据银行业的特征将上市银行分为三类,分类研究我国上市银行绩效对银行股价的影响。首先,我们从直观的角度对不同类型上市银行的绩效进行比较,然后根据三类上市银行的股市表现,采用面板数据模型进行关于银行绩效对银行股价的影响的实证研究。在此基础上提出有利于我国上市银行和股票市场健康发展的政策建议。通过实证分析得到以下结论： (一)对上市银行绩效进行分析发现：股份制中的兴业、浦发和招商银行净资产收益率较高,城市商业银行的净资产收益率普遍较低,这与银行的存贷比有很大关系。通常情况下,成本收入比越低,银行的盈利能力越强,但不同的情况下要区分对待。不同类型上市银行的不良贷款率均呈现下降趋势,说明我国上市银行的资产质量正逐步得到改善。从净利润增长的角度,国有银行的净利润平均增长速度最小,城商行的居中,股份制银行的最大。 (二)通过银行业股价波动的研究,发现三类上市银行的股价波动趋势非常接近,从近六年的股价均值来看,国有上市银行的股价相对城市商业银行的股价较低。从涨跌量的统计特征来看,除民生外,其余上市股份制银行和上市城商行的股价下跌天数多于上涨天数,股份制中股价均值高的银行的波动也相对剧烈,三家城市商业银行的波动非常相似,与国有银行相比,波动幅度更大。 (三)运用Panel Data模型进行实证的结论为：净资产收益率对三类上市银行的股价均不产生显著影响,成本收入比对银行股价有正影响,主要因为我国银行的高额利润来自于很低的成本投入,投资者对成本收入比指标缺乏信心。在国有银行和城市商业银行中,银行存贷比对银行股价有正的影响,不良贷款率对国有银行的股价影响不显著,对股份制银行和城商行有负的影响。银行净利润增长率对国有银行和股份制银行的股价有正的影响,银行的净利润增长率越高,银行的长远发展前景越明朗,投资者增加股票的购买,银行股价上升。
[Abstract]:As one of the three pillars of the financial industry, banking plays an important role in the development of Chinese economy. As a heavy stock, bank shares also play a key role in the capital market, and banking management belongs to the category of real economy. The fluctuation of bank stock price belongs to the category of virtual economy. To study the effect of listed bank performance on bank stock price is helpful to promote the healthy development of capital market and enhance the international competitiveness of listed banks. According to the characteristics of the banking industry, the listed banks are divided into three categories, which are classified to study the impact of the performance of the listed banks on the bank stock price. Firstly, we compare the performance of different types of listed banks from an intuitive point of view. Then according to the stock market performance of the three listed banks, Using panel data model to study the effect of bank performance on bank stock price. On the basis of this, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions which are conducive to the healthy development of listed banks and stock market in China. Through empirical analysis, the following conclusions are obtained:. (1) through the analysis of the performance of listed banks, it is found that the return on net assets of Pudong Development Bank and China Merchants Bank is high, and that of urban commercial banks is generally low. This has a lot to do with the bank's deposit / loan ratio. The lower the cost-income ratio, the stronger the bank's profitability, but the different situations should be treated differently. The non-performing loan ratio of different types of listed banks shows a downward trend. From the point of view of net profit growth, the average growth rate of net profit of state-owned banks is the smallest, that of city commercial banks is in the middle, and that of joint-stock banks is the largest. (2) through the research on the stock price fluctuation of the banking industry, we find that the volatility trend of the three listed banks is very similar. From the stock price average of the last six years, The stock prices of the state-owned listed banks are lower than those of the urban commercial banks. Judging from the statistical characteristics of the volume of rise and fall, apart from people's livelihood, the share prices of the other listed joint-stock banks and listed city commercial banks have fallen for more days than the rising days. The volatility of the banks with high average stock price is also relatively sharp. The volatility of the three urban commercial banks is very similar, compared with the state-owned banks, the volatility is much larger. (3) using the Panel Data model, the conclusions are as follows: the ROE has no significant effect on the stock price of the three listed banks, while the cost-income ratio has a positive effect on the stock price of the three listed banks. Mainly because the high profits of Chinese banks come from very low cost input, and investors lack confidence in the cost-income ratio index. In state-owned banks and urban commercial banks, the deposit-loan ratio of banks has a positive impact on the stock prices of banks. The non-performing loan ratio has no significant effect on the stock price of state-owned banks, but it has a negative impact on the stock prices of joint-stock banks and city commercial banks. The net profit growth rate of banks has a positive effect on the stock prices of state-owned banks and joint-stock banks, and the higher the net profit growth rate of banks is, The longer the bank's long-term prospects are clearer, the more investors buy more shares and the higher the bank's share price.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F832.33

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