我国大中城市商品房库存差距研究

发布时间：2018-03-28 10:46

本文选题：大中城市　切入点：商品房库存　出处：《重庆大学》2016年硕士论文

【摘要】：当前我国房地产投资增速日渐下行,商品房高库存是目前我国房地产市场的显著特征之一。此外,我国房地产市场加速分化,政府出台的相关楼市宏观调控政策在不同地区产生了不同的效果,北京、深圳等一线城市供小于求,房价持续领涨,部分二线城市及大部分三四线城市市场恢复缓慢,滞销严重。目前国内对于商品房库存的学术研究主要集中在高库存形成的原因及解决措施方面,对于不同地区间商品房库存差距的研究较少。仅有的研究也只是总量上的定性研究,本质研究不足;现象研究较多,内涵研究较少。理论研究的不足导致政府出台的相关政策缺乏有效的科学依据和技术支撑,因此研究商品房库存地区间的差距是十分有意义的。论文以商品房库存差距为出发点,首先回顾和梳理了关于商品房空置及库存的相关理论和实证研究,并在对常用差距研究测度指标分析介绍的基础上,选择了基尼系数研究商品房库存差距问题;然后根据收集的我国35个大中城市2005-2014年的相关数据,对商品房库存现状及历年演变情况进行了描述性统计分析,为后续深入的分析城市间商品房库存差距状况进行铺垫;最后从城市间商品房库存差距的测度、差距的因素分解以及差距的变化缘由多个角度出发,通过构造、分解和计算商品房人均待售面积的基尼系数来对我国35个大中城市商品房库存差距进行实证研究。研究结论显示:(1)从总体上讲,我国35个大中城市商品房人均库存面积的基尼系数呈震荡式下降的趋势,充分说明近年来我国大中城市间商品房人均库存面积的差距在缩小。(2)从不同类型商品房的贡献率来看,我国大中城市商品房人均库存面积的差距主要是由住宅造成的,其在2013年和2014年的贡献率均超过60%。(3)从一线城市、二三线城市二分类来看,一线城市内部、二三线城市内部、一线城市和二三线城市之间的商品房库存差距均在不同程度缩小,35个大中城市商品房库存差距主要是由二三线城市内部差距造成,其在2013年、2014年的贡献率也都超过了60%,并且其主导作用有进一步加强的趋势。(4)从两个维度分解基尼系数变化量,发现各城市人均库存面积增加和集中效应是我国大中城市商品房库存差距降低的最主要原因。本文通过对我国大中城市商品房库存差距的测度、构成及差距变化缘由的研究,有助于更加全面深入的认识当前我国大中城市商品房库存格局,并在此基础上给出了相应的建议,对政府制定差异化的调控政策,促进各城市房地产市场的均衡协调发展有一定实用价值。
[Abstract]:At present, the growth rate of real estate investment in our country is decreasing day by day, and the high inventory of commercial housing is one of the notable characteristics of the real estate market in our country. In addition, the real estate market in our country has accelerated its differentiation. The relevant macro-control policies on the property market issued by the government have had different effects in different regions. Beijing, Shenzhen, and other first-tier cities, such as the supply of less than demand, housing prices continue to lead the rise, some second-tier cities and most third-and fourth-tier cities market recovery slow, The current domestic academic research on the inventory of commercial housing is mainly focused on the reasons for the formation of high inventory and the measures to solve it. There are few researches on the inventory gap of commercial housing in different regions. The only research is only qualitative research on the total quantity, but the essence of the research is not enough. The lack of theoretical research leads to the lack of effective scientific basis and technical support for the relevant policies issued by the government. Therefore, it is very meaningful to study the gap between commodity housing inventory areas. This paper starts with the inventory gap of commercial housing, and reviews and combs the relevant theoretical and empirical research on the vacancy and inventory of commercial housing. On the basis of the analysis and introduction of the commonly used gap research measure index, the Gini coefficient is selected to study the inventory gap of commercial housing, and then according to the relevant data collected from 2005 to 2014 in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China, the Gini coefficient is selected to study the inventory gap of commercial housing. This paper makes a descriptive statistical analysis on the current situation of commercial housing inventory and its evolution over the years, which lays the groundwork for the further analysis of the inventory gap between cities; finally, it measures the inventory gap between cities. The factor decomposition of the gap and the reason for the change of the gap, through the construction, The Gini coefficient of per capita unsold area of commercial housing is decomposed and calculated to make an empirical study on the inventory gap of commercial housing in 35 large and medium-sized cities in China. The conclusion of the study shows that: 1) on the whole, The Gini coefficient of the per capita inventory area of commercial housing in 35 large and medium-sized cities of China is in a turbulent downward trend, which fully shows that the gap of per capita inventory area of commercial housing between large and medium cities in China is narrowing in recent years. (2) from the contribution rate of different types of commercial housing, The difference in the per capita inventory area of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities in China is mainly caused by housing, and its contribution rate in 2013 and 2014 is more than 60.0.The contribution rate is more than 60.Y3) from the first tier cities, the second and third tier cities, the second and third tier cities, the interior of the first tier cities, the second and the third tier cities. The gap between commodity housing inventory in first-tier cities and second-third-tier cities has been narrowed to varying degrees. The gap in commercial housing inventory in 35 large and medium-sized cities is mainly caused by the internal gap between second-and third-tier cities. Its contribution rates in 2013 and 2014 also exceeded 60 percent, and its leading role has been further strengthened.) the change in the Gini coefficient is broken down from two dimensions. It is found that the increase of per capita inventory area and the centralization effect in cities are the main reasons for the decrease of inventory gap of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities in China. This paper studies the measurement, composition and reasons for the change of inventory gap of commercial housing in large and medium-sized cities in China. It is helpful to understand the inventory pattern of commercial housing in large and medium cities of our country more comprehensively and deeply, and on the basis of this, it gives corresponding suggestions, and formulates the differential regulation and control policy to the government. To promote the balanced and coordinated development of the urban real estate market has a certain practical value.
【学位授予单位】：重庆大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2016
【分类号】：F299.23

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