基于货币政策的中国房地产价格调控机制

发布时间：2018-04-06 01:29

本文选题：房地产价格　切入点：利率　出处：《东华大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：自1998年房改以来,我国房地产市场得到极大繁荣,房地产业成为国民经济的支柱产业,房地产经济在我国总体经济中的重要性日益凸显。在房地产市场迅猛发展的背后是不断出台的房地产调控措施,从2003年的《关于促进房地产市场持续健康发展的通知》到2013年的新国五条。尽管我国对房地产调控政策进行了长期的探索研究,但是事实证明调控政策并没有满足房地产市场的调控要求,越调越涨的情况频繁出现。与此同时,虽然国外发达国家对房地产市场的调控有着一定的经验和认识,但是由于国情问题以及房地产市场发展阶段水平的关系,使得国外的调控模式对我国的房地产市场帮助有限。因此有必要对我国的房地产价格调控机制进行研究。本文从货币政策的角度讨论我国房地产价格的调控机制,主要从利率、存款准备金率、银行信贷三方面进行讨论。文章首先回顾了国内外学者关于货币政策与房地产市场的研究,并对相关文献进行了整理。接着对房地产市场的价格决定理论及均衡理论进行了阐述,并对货币政策的中介指标进行了分析。之后从利率、存款准备金率、银行信贷三个方面研究货币政策对房地产价格调控的理论机制。紧接着,本文整理统计相关数据,运用图表对我国房地产市场的发展现状及历年货币政策调控效果进行了直观说明,并指出我国房地产市场发展中现存的问题。文章在对现状进行描述之后,进行了实证分析。在实证部分,文章选取最新数据运用向量自回归模型、脉冲响应函数及方差分解等方法对货币政策工具与房地产价格进行实证检验：首先引入虚拟变量对单独的政策工具与房地产价格进行分析,然后建立利率、存款准备金率、银行信贷与房价的VAR模型。实证研究结果表明,利率、存款准备金率、银行信贷都是房地产价格的格兰杰原因,但三者对房地产价格的影响程度有差别,其中银行信贷的影响程度最大,并且银行信贷与房地产价格呈正相关关系；其次是存款准备金率,存款准备金率与房地产价格之间是负相关关系；出乎意料的是利率对房地产市场的调控效果不显著。最后,从实证结果出发,文章从利率、存款准备金率、银行信贷等方面提出了相关的政策建议,以期对我国房地产市场的发展起到一定的促进作用。
[Abstract]:Since the housing reform in 1998, the real estate market of our country has been greatly prosperous, the real estate industry has become the pillar industry of the national economy, and the real estate economy has become more and more important in the overall economy of our country.Behind the rapid development of the real estate market is the continuous introduction of real estate regulation and control measures, from the 2003 notice on promoting the sustained and healthy development of the real estate market to the five new countries in 2013.Although our country has carried on the long-term exploration research to the real estate regulation and control policy, but the fact proves that the regulation and control policy does not meet the real estate market regulation and control request, the situation that the more adjustment and the higher the increase appears frequently.At the same time, although foreign developed countries have some experience and understanding of the regulation and control of the real estate market, due to the problems of the national conditions and the level of the real estate market development,Make the foreign regulation and control mode to our country's real estate market help is limited.Therefore, it is necessary to study the real estate price regulation mechanism in China.This paper discusses the adjustment and control mechanism of real estate price in China from the angle of monetary policy, mainly from three aspects: interest rate, reserve ratio and bank credit.Firstly, this paper reviews the research on monetary policy and real estate market at home and abroad, and collates the relevant literature.Then, the theory of price determination and equilibrium of real estate market is expounded, and the intermediate index of monetary policy is analyzed.Then the theoretical mechanism of monetary policy on real estate price regulation is studied from three aspects: interest rate, reserve ratio and bank credit.Then, this article collates the statistics related data, uses the chart to our country real estate market development present situation and the monetary policy control effect in the past years has carried on the visual explanation, and pointed out our country real estate market development in the extant question.After describing the present situation, the paper makes an empirical analysis.In the empirical part, we choose the latest data using vector autoregressive model.Impulse response function and variance decomposition are used to test monetary policy tools and real estate prices. Firstly, virtual variables are introduced to analyze individual policy tools and real estate prices, then interest rate and reserve ratio are established.The VAR model of bank credit and house price.The empirical results show that interest rate, deposit reserve ratio and bank credit are all Granger reasons of real estate price, but the influence degree of these three factors on real estate price is different, among which bank credit has the greatest influence on real estate price.And the bank credit and real estate prices are positively correlated; the second is the reserve ratio, the reserve ratio and real estate prices are negative correlation; unexpectedly, the interest rate on the real estate market control effect is not significant.Finally, based on the empirical results, the paper puts forward some policy suggestions from interest rate, deposit reserve ratio, bank credit and so on, in order to promote the development of real estate market in China.
【学位授予单位】：东华大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F812.0;F299.23

【参考文献】