中国不同地区房地产财富效应的实证研究——基于状态空间模型的时变参数分析

发布时间：2018-04-17 09:26

本文选题：财富效应 + 时变参数　；参考：《经济与管理评论》2017年05期

【摘要】：基于房地产市场对我国目前经济下滑能否起到一定的拉动作用和拉动程度的思考,选取2010年1季度至2016年1季度的数据,通过协整检验和状态空间模型的建立比较了全国和东、中、西部地区的房地产财富效应。结论显示,全国和各个区域的财富效应是不一致的,而且各个区域之间的财富效应也不一样;东部地区呈正向财富效应,且在短期内对政策的敏感度更强;中部地区呈负向的替代和收入效应,且在样本期内参数变化比较缓慢;西部地区和全国的实证结果是房地产对消费的影响不显著。基于不同的结论,提出了政府出台的房市政策应该因地制宜、避免"一刀切"的建议,同时在政策周期上应该考虑房地产财富效应显现的耗时较长特征,合理把握政府调控的时间。
[Abstract]:Based on the real estate market of China's current economic downturn could play a certain role thinking and pulling degree, from 2010 to the 1 quarter of the 1 quarter of 2016 data, the country and the East, compared by establishing cointegration test and state space model in the western region, the wealth effect of the real estate industry. The conclusion shows that wealth effect of national and regional are inconsistent, and the wealth effect between the various regions are not the same; the eastern region has a positive wealth effect, and in the short term is more sensitive to the policy; a negative substitution and income effects to the central region, and in the sample period parameters changed slowly; and the western region the empirical result is the impact of real estate on consumption is not significant. Different conclusions based on proposed government housing policy should be adapted to local conditions, avoid "across the board" proposal, at the same time in the policy period It should take into account the time-consuming characteristics of the real estate wealth effect, and reasonably grasp the time of government regulation.

【作者单位】：华中科技大学经济学院;武汉体育学院经济管理学院;
【分类号】：F299.23

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