宏观调控背景下信贷约束、影子银行与房地产价格的互动关系研究

发布时间：2018-04-22 19:50

本文选题：信贷约束 + 影子银行　；参考：《天津财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来房地产价格的持续快速上涨成为人们关注的热点,其不仅直接关系着人民生活,还对经济稳定和社会和谐有着重要影响。由于房地产行业资金需求密集,而银行信贷是其重要的资金来源,因此通过信贷约束来稳定房地产投资和消费行为,就成为政府平抑房地产价格的重要政策取向之一。与此同时,自2010年起发展迅速的中国式影子银行体系开始引起学界目光的聚焦。由于政府对商业银行信贷体系的调控政策,影子银行正成为房地产行业另一重要的融资渠道,其与房地产价格的联系和对政策效果的冲击已不容忽视。宏观调控背景下信贷约束和房地产价格的互动关系因影子银行的引入而更加微妙。通过采用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法,首先对国内外相关研究成果进行梳理,并对我国房地产市场和房地产信贷支持体系的发展现状进行介绍；在此基础上通过经典经济学框架分析并构建加入影子银行的信贷与房地产市场的均衡模型来对这一问题进行理论分析;最后基于我国2005-2012年的月度数据运用协整关系检验、Granger因果关系检验和时变参数状态空间模型等计量经济学方法进行实证研究。通过理论和实证分析发现,我国商业银行和影子银行信贷体系与房地产价格都显示出顺周期特征,两体系在宏观调控形成的信贷约束下呈现互补替代关系,商业银行和影子银行的信贷价格对房价影响存在差异且对调控的反应不同,信贷数量类因素与房价间的互动关系比价格类因素更显著和持续。基于结论,提出建议应继续坚持对于房地产行业逆周期的信贷调控措施,通过信贷约束稳定房地产投资和消费行为；信贷调控政策要同时针对商业银行和影子银行两个体系,并结合其他政策协同发挥效用；信贷调控政策的取向要以数量型为主价格型为辅,且应注意商业银行与影子银行的差异性。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the continuous and rapid rise of real estate prices has become a hot spot, which not only has a direct bearing on people's lives, but also has an important impact on economic stability and social harmony. Because the capital demand of real estate industry is intensive and bank credit is an important source of funds, it is one of the important policy orientations for the government to stabilize the real estate investment and consumption behavior through the credit constraint. At the same time, since 2010, the rapid development of the Chinese shadow banking system began to attract the attention of scholars. As a result of the government's policy of regulating and controlling the credit system of commercial banks, shadow banking is becoming another important financing channel for the real estate industry, and its relation with the real estate price and the impact on the effect of the policy can not be ignored. The interaction between credit constraints and real estate prices under the background of macro-control is more subtle because of the introduction of shadow banking. By combining qualitative analysis with quantitative analysis, this paper firstly combs the related research results at home and abroad, and introduces the development status of real estate market and real estate credit support system in China. On this basis, through the classical economic framework analysis and the construction of shadow banking credit and real estate market equilibrium model to carry out theoretical analysis of this problem; Finally, based on the monthly data from 2005 to 2012 in China, an empirical study is carried out by using some econometric methods such as co-integration test, Granger causality test and time-varying parameter state space model. Through theoretical and empirical analysis, it is found that the credit systems of commercial banks and shadow banks and real estate prices both show pro-cyclical characteristics, and the two systems show complementary substitution relations under the credit constraints of macro-control. Credit prices of commercial banks and shadow banks have different effects on house prices and their responses to regulation are different. The interaction between credit quantity factors and house prices is more significant and sustainable than that of price type factors. Based on the conclusion, the paper puts forward the suggestion that we should continue to adhere to the counter-cyclical credit regulation measures for the real estate industry, and stabilize the real estate investment and consumption behavior through credit constraints, and the credit regulation policy should be aimed at both commercial banks and shadow banking systems. In combination with other policies, the credit regulation policy should be oriented to the quantitative type and the price type, and should pay attention to the difference between the commercial banks and the shadow banks.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.4

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