我国城市投资公司债券融资风险管控研究

发布时间：2018-04-23 13:08

本文选题：城建资金 + 城投债风险　；参考：《西安石油大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：近年来，作为地方政府债务融资的方式之一，城投公司债券融资在中央政府积极财政政策的驱动下，呈现跨越式发展，潜在风险不断突出。识别和计量风险是风险管理的前提，设计有效的风险控制机制是控制风险的基础，寻求一条解决当前严峻的城投债风险管理和控制问题的道路，是急需我们去做的紧迫任务。本文首先梳理和总结城投债券融资风险管控的相关文献，综述了城投债券的概念、性质、融资现状和特点、风险类别和影响因素、风险计量模型及风险管控实证研究概况。然后在此基础上，对城投债的发债情况、存在风险、风险引发因素及风险控制相关理论进行分析，为管理和控制债券风险建立理论基础。接着以四川、陕西、重庆、云南、甘肃2000年至2012年的财政数据为基础，运用改进的KMV模型对我国西部地区城投债的发行规模进行实证研究，以北京、上海、山东、江苏、广东为研究样本，对东部地区城投债发债规模进行预测，然后进行对比分析。有效地预测了城投债的安全发债规模，为管理城投债风险提供参考。最后，以镇江、怀化、咸阳、天津等具体的城投债为例，，研究发债规模、资产规模、资金运营状况、资金偿付情况对债券风险的影响。分析出风险控制机制设计的三个关键点：发债规模控制、资金运营控制、资金偿付和管理控制，提出具体风险控制措施。
[Abstract]:In recent years, as one of the ways of local government debt financing, the bond financing of the city investment company, driven by the central government's active fiscal policy, presents a leap forward development, and the potential risks are constantly outstanding. The identification and measurement risk are the premise of risk management. The design of an effective risk control system is the basis for controlling the risk and seeks a solution to the problem. The path of risk management and control before the serious urban debt investment is an urgent task that we urgently need to do.
This paper first reviews and summarizes the relevant literature on the risk management of city investment bonds, summarizes the concept, nature, financing status and characteristics, risk categories and factors, risk measurement models and empirical research on risk management. On this basis, there are risks, risk factors, and risk factors on the basis of this. The theory of risk control is analyzed to establish a theoretical foundation for managing and controlling bond risk.
Then based on the financial data of Sichuan, Shaanxi, Chongqing, Yunnan and Gansu from 2000 to 2012, we use the improved KMV model to carry out an empirical study on the scale of the issuance of urban investment debt in the western region of China, and take Beijing, Shanghai, Shandong, Jiangsu and Guangdong as the research samples to predict the scale of the debt issuance in the eastern region, and then make a comparative analysis. It effectively forecasts the scale of the security bonds issued by the city investment bonds, and provides reference for managing the risk of the city's investment bonds.
Finally, taking Zhenjiang, Huaihua, Xianyang and Tianjin as an example, the paper studies the impact of debt scale, asset scale, capital operation status, and fund reimbursement situation on bond risk. It analyzes three key points in the design of risk control mechanism: debt scale control, capital operation control, fund reimbursement and management control, and put forward specific risks. Control measures.

【学位授予单位】：西安石油大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

【参考文献】