中国在拉美的直接投资对中拉双边贸易的影响

发布时间：2018-04-26 07:40

本文选题：对外直接投资 + 进出口贸易　；参考：《拉丁美洲研究》2017年01期

【摘要】：对外直接投资和贸易是拉动一国经济发展的两个重要因素。21世纪以来,中国和拉美地区的经济往来显著加强,主要体现在投资和贸易两个方面。中国对拉美地区直接投资的特点体现为增速快、存量小、覆盖面在提高、内部方差在增加以及实业投资相对不足;中国与拉美地区双边贸易的特点体现为发展速度较快、贸易伙伴集中以及商品种类明确。本文分析了中拉之间投资与贸易的现状,提出中国对拉美的直接投资是否促进了双边贸易的问题。通过对现有文献研究进行详细梳理,并结合2003—2014年中国与拉美8国的双边贸易和直接投资数据,采用面板模型对中拉在直接投资和贸易方面的关系进行实证分析。结论表明,中国对拉美的直接投资短期内对中拉贸易量没有显著影响,但从长期来看,直接投资会促进中国从拉美的进口,但会抑制中国对拉美的出口。结合上述研究结论与现阶段发展形势,本文从实体产业和虚拟服务业、微观监管和宏观法律制定等角度提出旨在促进中拉之间投资和贸易良性互动的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Foreign direct investment and trade are two important factors to promote the economic development of a country. Since the 21st century, the economic exchanges between China and Latin America have been strengthened significantly, mainly in the aspects of investment and trade. The characteristics of China's direct investment in Latin America are fast growth, small stock, increasing coverage, increasing internal variance and relatively insufficient industrial investment, while bilateral trade between China and Latin America is characterized by rapid development. Concentration of trading partners and clear types of commodities. This paper analyzes the present situation of investment and trade between China and Latin America, and puts forward the question whether Chinese direct investment in Latin America promotes bilateral trade. By combing the existing literatures and combining the bilateral trade and direct investment data between China and eight Latin American countries from 2003 to 2014, the panel model is used to analyze the relationship between China and Latin America in direct investment and trade. The conclusion shows that China's direct investment in Latin America has no significant impact on the volume of Sino-Latin American trade in the short term, but in the long run, direct investment will promote China's imports from Latin America, but will restrain China's exports to Latin America. Combined with the above conclusions and the present development situation, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions aimed at promoting the benign interaction of investment and trade between China and Latin America from the angles of real industry and virtual service industry, micro supervision and macro law making.
【作者单位】：中国社会科学院研究生院;中国社会科学院世界经济与政治研究所;北京工商大学经济学院;
【分类号】：F125;F173

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