人口结构对股市参与率和参与程度的影响——根据深圳证券交易所数据的测算

发布时间：2018-05-03 10:13

本文选题：人口结构 + 股市参与率　；参考：《证券市场导报》2017年06期

【摘要】：人口结构对股市参与的影响是一个值得研究的重要问题。本文通过构建人口结构影响股市参与率和参与程度的微观基础,并使用国内27个省市自治区在深圳证券交易所的股票开户数、交易金额数据对模型结论进行检验。实证分析发现:少年抚养比对不同地区的股市参与率和参与程度存在显著的负向作用,而老年抚养比的影响在统计上不显著;分区域进一步回归发现,少年抚养比对东部地区股市参与率和参与程度的负面影响均最大,而对西部地区的股市参与率负面影响最小,对中部地区的股市参与程度负面影响最小。稳健性检验分别通过变换被解释变量和引入青年-中年比例来减小内生性的影响,估计结果表现出较好的稳健性。研究结论是在其他条件不变下,随着我国少年抚养比的逐年下降,未来我国居民股市参与率和参与程度将有一定幅度的上升。
[Abstract]:The impact of population structure on stock market participation is an important issue worth studying. In this paper, the microcosmic basis of the population structure influencing the participation rate and the degree of participation in the stock market is constructed, and the conclusions of the model are tested by using the number of stock accounts opened in the Shenzhen Stock Exchange by 27 provinces, municipalities and autonomous regions in China, and the data of the transaction amount. The empirical analysis shows that the juvenile dependency ratio has a significant negative effect on the stock market participation rate and participation degree in different regions, but the influence of old age dependency ratio is not statistically significant. Juvenile dependency ratio has the most negative influence on the participation rate and degree of stock market in the eastern region, but it has the least negative impact on the participation rate of the stock market in the western region and the least on the participation degree of the stock market in the central region. The robustness test reduces the endogenous influence by changing the explained variables and introducing the ratio of youth to middle age respectively. The estimation results show good robustness. The conclusion of the study is that the participation rate and participation degree of Chinese residents in the stock market will increase by a certain extent in the future with the decreasing of juvenile dependency ratio under other conditions.
【作者单位】：中国农业银行博士后工作站;对外经济贸易大学博士后流动站;南开大学滨海开发研究院;
【分类号】：C924.2;F832.51

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