我国住房反向抵押贷款需求与定价的实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-13 07:55

本文选题：反向抵押贷款 + 排序多元Logit模型　；参考：《西安电子科技大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：中国社会正面临着“低收入阶段进入老年化”的问题。一方面是人口老龄化程度在不断加大。与此同时,随着计划生育政策实施的几十年,家庭人口结构也在发生着变化,独生子女越来越多,使得传统的家庭养老受到了威胁；另一方面我国养老体系的货币资源短缺,赡养率不断提高,社会养老面临严重的挑战。因此需要探索出辅助性的养老方法,为老年人的晚年生活提供保障。而住房反向抵押贷款就是一种有效的解决养老压力的方案。本文在此基础上,研究了国外反向抵押贷款的发展情况,对比分析我国发展反向抵押贷款的必要性和可行性,并通过调查问卷的形式,对住房反向抵押贷款的需求情况进行基本分析,并建立排序多元Logit模型,分析影响住房反向抵押贷款需求的因素,得出老年人对住房反向抵押贷款的需求情况受性别、学历、月支出、个人月收入和子女赡养费的影响。其中受学历和月支出的正向影响；受性别、个人月支出和子女赡养费的负向影响。同时重点研究无赎回权的住房反向抵押定价模型,在已有模型的基础上加入通货膨胀率的变化,并对结果进行敏感性分析,从风险控制角度测试支付额度变化程度。为缓解我国日益严峻的老龄化问题提供借鉴。最后,分析我国住房反向抵押贷款所面临的风险问题。包括了利率风险、长寿风险、房价波动风险、逆向选择与道德风险等。针对每一种风险都进行了分析,并提出了相应的对策和措施。根据前几章节的介绍与分析,得出反向抵押贷款的结论,根据结论提出相关建议,同时归纳出未来需要研究的方向。
[Abstract]:Chinese society is facing the problem of low-income stage aging. On the one hand, the aging of the population is increasing. At the same time, with the implementation of the family planning policy for several decades, the family population structure is also changing, with more and more only children, which threatens the traditional family pension system. On the other hand, there is a shortage of monetary resources in our pension system. The rate of support is increasing, and the social endowment is facing serious challenges. Therefore, it is necessary to explore supplementary pension methods to provide security for the elderly in their old age. But the housing reverse mortgage loan is one kind of effective solution old age pressure plan. On the basis of this, this paper studies the development of reverse mortgage loan in foreign countries, compares the necessity and feasibility of developing reverse mortgage loan in our country, and through the form of questionnaire, Based on the basic analysis of the demand situation of the housing reverse mortgage, and the establishment of sorted multiple Logit model, the factors affecting the demand for the housing reverse mortgage are analyzed, and the results show that the demand of the elderly for the reverse housing mortgage is subject to gender and academic background. The impact of monthly expenses, personal monthly income and child support. It is positively affected by education and monthly expenditure, and negatively affected by gender, personal monthly expenditure and child support. At the same time, the reverse mortgage pricing model with no foreclosure is studied, and the change of inflation rate is added on the basis of the existing model, and the sensitivity analysis of the result is carried out, and the change degree of payment quota is tested from the point of view of risk control. In order to alleviate our country increasingly austere aging problem provides the reference. At last, the paper analyzes the risk of housing reverse mortgage loan in our country. Including interest rate risk, longevity risk, house price volatility risk, adverse selection and moral hazard. For each kind of risk analysis, and put forward the corresponding countermeasures and measures. According to the introduction and analysis of the previous chapters, this paper draws the conclusion of reverse mortgage loan, puts forward some relevant suggestions according to the conclusion, and sums up the direction of future research.
【学位授予单位】：西安电子科技大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;F832.479

【相似文献】