重庆市建设用地扩张与碳排放效应的库兹涅茨曲线实证分析

发布时间：2018-05-18 10:15

本文选题：建设用地扩张 + 库兹涅茨曲线　；参考：《西南大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：工业革命以后,人类的经济有了质的飞跃,环境相继日益恶化,CO2的排放逐渐提上日程,在哥本哈根会议上,各国达成协议,减少碳排放,其中斯德哥尔摩承诺在2025年去除所有化石燃料供给,成为零碳城市。由此可见,因温室气体导致的温室效应,已成为当前各国和全社会共同关注的热点问题之一。本论文基于重庆市1998-2012年的土地利用变更数据调查和能源消耗数据,分析了重庆市15年间建设用地扩张及碳排放特征,构建了建设用地比例与碳排放强度之间的库兹涅茨曲线模型对重庆市建设用地扩张与碳排放效应之间的相关关系进行了实证研究,尝试验证库兹涅茨曲线在建设用地扩张与碳排放强度之间的存在性。结果表明： (1)在二级地类中,城市用地面积和建制镇用地而积迅速上升,在2009年二者上升幅度最大,其中城市用地的变化速度和变化幅度均较明显；农村居民点用地逐年下降,且变化较小;其他建设用地的变化幅度和变化速度相较于其他的地类来说均较小。 (2)建设用地总量在1998-2012年间持续增长,绝对增长140998.65hm2,年均增长9399.91hm2,在此期间,碳排放量和碳排放强度逐年呈增长态势,碳排放绝对增长量为3680.24万tC/t,年均增长量为262.87万tC/t。 (3)建设用地总量与碳排放强度之间存在着“正U”型的库兹涅茨曲线关系,并且处于U型的右半部分,即目前随着重庆市建设用地的扩大,碳排放强度在不断加强,拐点还未到来。 (4)碳排放强度与城市用地,建制镇用地之间呈倒‘“U”型曲线关系,农村居民点用地与碳排放强度之间呈负相关线性关系,而其他建设用地与碳排放强度之间呈不明显的库兹涅茨曲线关系。 (5)都市功能核心区、都市功能拓展区、城市发展新区、渝东南生态保护区、渝东北生态涵养区的碳排放量和碳排放强度在15年间均有不同程度的增长。其中城市发展新区的碳排放量和碳排放强度增加最多,2012年碳排放量为3215.08万tC/t,15年间增加了4倍多,占总碳排放量的比重增加了12.42%,口前成为重庆市碳排放增加的主要助推器。 (6)都市功能核心区、都市功能拓展区建设用地分别与碳排放强度之间存在“倒U”型的库兹涅茨曲线关系,并且拐点已经来临。城市发展新区、渝东南生态保护区、渝东北生态涵养区建设用地与碳排放之间不存在库兹涅茨曲线关系。 (7)重庆市建设用地总量与碳排放强度没有与预期的一样呈“倒U,”型曲线的关系,经分析,存在三个原因：一是农村居民点这一地类的特殊性,外在的地类转换和内在承载的人口都会影响碳排放的情况；二是其他建设用地与碳排放强度之间无明显的曲线关系。三是城市发展新区、渝东南生态保护区、渝东北生态涵养区的建设用地扩张无序,导致其与碳排放强度之间并不存在明显的库兹涅茨曲线关系。三者的不确定性共同影响了建设用地总量与碳排放强度的曲线关系。
[Abstract]:After the industrial revolution, the human economy has made a qualitative leap, the environment has worsened, and the emission of CO2 has gradually been put on the agenda. At the Copenhagen conference, countries reached agreement to reduce carbon emissions, in which Stockholm promised to remove all fossil fuel supply in 2025 and become a zero carbon city. Thus, greenhouse gas led greenhouses The effect has become one of the hot topics in the world and the whole society.
Based on the land use change data survey and energy consumption data of 1998-2012 years in Chongqing, this paper analyses the characteristics of construction land expansion and carbon emission in Chongqing in the past 15 years, and constructs the correlation between the Kuznets curve model between the construction land ratio and the carbon emission intensity between the construction land expansion and the carbon emission effect in Chongqing. An empirical study was carried out to verify the existence of Kuznets curve in the relationship between the expansion of construction land and carbon emission intensity.
(1) in the class two, the area of urban land and the land used for the construction of towns and towns rose rapidly. In 2009, the two people went up the most, and the speed and change range of the urban land use was obvious; the rural residential land use land declined year by year, and the change was smaller. The change range and change speed of other construction land were compared to other types of land. It is smaller.
(2) the total amount of construction land increased continuously in 1998-2012 years, the absolute growth of 140998.65hm2, the annual growth of 9399.91hm2. During this period, the carbon emission and carbon emission intensity increased year by year, the absolute growth of carbon emissions was 36 million 802 thousand and 400 tC/t, and the annual average growth was 2 million 628 thousand and 700 tC/t.
(3) there is a "positive U" type Kuznets curve relationship between the total amount of construction land and the intensity of carbon emissions, and in the right half of the U type, that is, with the expansion of the construction land in Chongqing, the intensity of carbon emission is constantly strengthened and the turning point has not yet come.
(4) the relationship between the carbon emission intensity and the urban land, the "U" curve between the urban land use and the town land, the relationship between the rural residential land and the carbon emission intensity is negatively correlated, while the relationship between the other construction land and the carbon emission intensity is not obvious Kuznets curve.
(5) the carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of the ecological conservation areas in the northeast of Chongqing have increased in 15 years. The carbon emissions and carbon emission intensity of the new urban development areas increased most, and the carbon emissions were 32 million 150 thousand and 800 tC/t in 2012 and 15 years in the year of 2012. The proportion increased by more than 4 times, and the proportion of total carbon emissions increased by 12.42%, which became the main booster of Chongqing's carbon emissions increase.
(6) the urban functional core area, the "inverted U" type Kuznets curve relationship between the urban functional development area and the carbon emission intensity, and the turning point has come. There is no Kuznets curve relationship between the urban development new area, the Southeast Chongqing ecological protection area, the construction land of the ecological conservation area in Northeast Chongqing and the carbon emissions.
(7) the relationship between the total amount of construction land and the carbon emission intensity in Chongqing is not as expected as the "inverted U," curve. After analysis, there are three reasons: first, the particularity of the rural residential areas, the external land conversion and the inner bearing population will affect the carbon emission; two is the other construction land and carbon emissions. There is no obvious curve relationship between the degree of the urban development, three is the new urban development area, the Southeast Chongqing ecological protection area, the construction land of the ecological conservation area in Northeast Chongqing is expanded and disorderly, and there is no obvious Kuznets curve relationship between its carbon emission intensity. The uncertainty of the three is a common influence on the curve of the total amount of construction land and the carbon emission intensity. Department.
【学位授予单位】：西南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.23;X24

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