货币政策的银行信贷传导渠道实证研究

发布时间：2018-06-15 21:01

本文选题：货币政策 + 传导渠道　；参考：《首都经济贸易大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：世界经济形势瞬息万变,中国经济日益融入世界经济之中,自2008年发生全球性金融危机以来,我国经济的增长也受到了较大的冲击,经济也已由中高速增长逐步回稳,经济增长进入了“新常态”并将成为我国未来一段时期经济增长的新态势,同时伴随着利率市场化进程的推进,无一不影响着我国经济发展运行。而银行在我国经济社会运行中发挥着无可替代的作用,其拥有的资本数量十分巨大,我国的实体经济一旦受到金融危机的冲击,银行业也必然会受到不小的影响,因此在当前这个阶段探讨货币政策对商业银行信贷规模扩张的影响也就更加具有现实意义。本文在货币政策传导渠道的理论分析的基础上,进而研究了我国宏观货币政策变化情况与我国微观银行业信贷水平,选取了30家银行近10年来的数据进行面板回归模型的实证研究。不仅考察了货币政策对于信贷水平的影响,还引入了货币政策代理变量与银行异质性特征变量的交叉项,来考察不同类型的银行对于货币政策银行信贷传导的反应效果。研究结果表明,实施货币政策时,货币供应量和上海银行间同业拆放利率的变动可以较好影响银行信贷以达到预期效果,银行贷款对存款准备金率的变动不敏感,贷款基准利率的变动对于信贷规模的影响效果最差;同时规模较大、流动性较好的银行对于货币政策的信贷传导较不敏感,资本充足率和盈利性对于货币政策传导的效果较不显著。最后本文根据实证的研究结果对我国货币政策的调控、利率市场化建设、存款准备金制度的改善以及货币市场发展等方面提出相应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Since the global financial crisis occurred in 2008, the economic growth of our country has also been greatly impacted, and the economy has been gradually stabilized by the medium and high speed growth. Economic growth has entered the "new normal" and will become a new trend of economic growth in the future period of our country. At the same time, with the advancement of interest rate marketization process, all of them will affect the development and operation of our country's economy. The banks play an irreplaceable role in the economic and social operation of our country. The amount of capital they have is very large. Once the real economy of our country is hit by the financial crisis, the banking industry will inevitably be affected. Therefore, it is of practical significance to explore the influence of monetary policy on the expansion of credit scale of commercial banks at this stage. Based on the theoretical analysis of the transmission channels of monetary policy, this paper further studies the changes of macro-monetary policy and the credit level of China's micro banking sector. The data of 30 banks in the past 10 years are selected to carry on the empirical research of panel regression model. This paper not only examines the influence of monetary policy on credit level, but also introduces the cross term between monetary policy agency variable and bank heterogeneity characteristic variable to investigate the effect of different types of banks on the credit transmission of monetary policy banks. The results show that the change of money supply and Shanghai Interbank offered rate can better influence the bank credit to achieve the expected effect, and the bank loan is not sensitive to the change of the reserve ratio. The impact of the change of the benchmark interest rate on the scale of credit is the worst, and the banks with larger scale and better liquidity are less sensitive to the credit transmission of monetary policy. The effect of capital adequacy ratio and profitability on monetary policy transmission is not significant. Finally, based on the empirical research results, this paper puts forward some policy suggestions on the adjustment and control of monetary policy, the construction of interest rate marketization, the improvement of deposit reserve system and the development of money market.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F822.0;F832.4

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