基于银行信贷视角的我国流动性失衡分析

发布时间：2018-06-23 08:58

本文选题：银行信贷 + 流动性失衡　；参考：《安徽财经大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：长期以来,流动性失衡问题一直是各国关注和研究的焦点。在我国,为改变出口导向型经济增长模式,刺激投资、拉动内需,政府采取了一系列扩张政策,加之国际收支双顺差格局,中央银行被动投放基础货币,逐步形成了我国宏观流动性过剩的局面。2008年美国次贷危机爆发,为快速走出金融危机阴影,中央政府采取了一系列刺激措施,特别是2009年的四万亿刺激计划,使得“货币超发”问题一度引起热议,加剧了我国经济体系内流动性过剩状况。就在整个宏观流动性总量过剩的背景下,我国却出现了产能过剩、房价高企、银行“钱荒”、小微企业融资困难等一系列反映出我国流动性结构失衡的问题。如何深入认识这些问题,了解我国流动性失衡基本状况,找出引发失衡的原因并给予合理对策建议是本文研究的主要内容。本文以银行信贷为视角,首先,对信贷和流动性失衡的相关文献和理论进行了回顾和梳理,并结合我国实际情况阐述了我国商业银行信贷业务的重要性,这也是论文选取该视角作为研究主线的重要原因；其次,从银行信贷总量、信贷期限结构、信贷流向三个方面对我国目前的流动性失衡现状进行了深入分析,得出了在宏观流动性过剩环境下,我国出现了虚拟经济体系流动性过剩与实体经济流动性相对不足,以及实体经济体系内部,部分行业、企业流动性过剩而小微企业流动性不足的结论,并从商业银行、资本市场、社会信用体系建设和企业自身这四个方面总结了产生流动性失衡的原因；再次,分别选取了总量指标和结构指标通过平稳性检验、协整检验、脉冲响应分析等,实证检验了上述结论中所表述的信贷引发实体经济、虚拟经济流动性总量及结构失衡的相互关系；最后,对论文所得结论进行总结,并根据产生流动性失衡的原因,有针对性的提出相关对策建议。
[Abstract]:For a long time, liquidity imbalance has been the focus of attention and research. In China, in order to change the export-oriented economic growth model, stimulate investment and stimulate domestic demand, the government has adopted a series of expansionary policies, in addition to the pattern of double surplus in the balance of payments, the central bank has passively put in the basic currency. In 2008, the subprime mortgage crisis broke out in the United States. In order to quickly get out of the shadow of the financial crisis, the central government adopted a series of stimulus measures, especially the 4 trillion stimulus plan in 2009. As a result, the issue of "currency overshoot" once aroused heated debate, aggravated the excess liquidity situation in our economic system. Under the background of the total excess of macro liquidity in China, a series of problems such as overcapacity, high house prices, "money shortage" in banks, financing difficulties of small and micro enterprises and so on reflect the imbalance of liquidity structure in China. How to deeply understand these problems, understand the basic situation of China's liquidity imbalance, find out the causes of the imbalance and give reasonable countermeasures and suggestions are the main contents of this paper. From the perspective of bank credit, this paper reviews and combs the relevant literatures and theories about the imbalance between credit and liquidity, and expounds the importance of credit business of commercial banks in our country according to the actual situation of our country. This is also an important reason for the thesis to select this perspective as the main line of study. Secondly, from three aspects of the total amount of bank credit, the term structure of credit, and the flow of credit, the paper makes a deep analysis of the current situation of liquidity imbalance in China. It is concluded that under the environment of macro excess liquidity, the virtual economy system liquidity excess and the real economy liquidity are relatively insufficient, as well as some industries within the real economy system. The conclusion of excess liquidity of enterprises and illiquidity of small and micro enterprises, and from the commercial banks, capital markets, social credit system construction and enterprises themselves, summed up the causes of liquidity imbalance. Through the stationary test, cointegration test, impulse response analysis and so on, the aggregate index and the structure index are selected to test the credit-induced real economy as expressed in the above conclusions. The relationship between the total amount of liquidity and the structural imbalance of virtual economy. Finally, the conclusion of the paper is summarized, and according to the reasons of the liquidity imbalance, the relevant countermeasures and suggestions are put forward.
【学位授予单位】：安徽财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.33;F832.4

【参考文献】