中国直接投资对哈萨克斯坦经济发展的影响：来自能源行业的证据

发布时间：2018-06-26 23:17

本文选题：中国直接投资 + 能源行业　；参考：《哈尔滨工业大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：本文以能源行业为例研究了中国直接投资对哈萨克斯坦经济增长的影响。随着中国的高速发展,其对进口化石燃料的需求也不断扩张。为了保证进口能源资源的供给,中国政府支持国有石油公司在海外开展业务。自1997年开始,中国与哈萨克斯坦建立了亲密的政治和经济合作关系,中国国有石油公司的海外投资也在持续增长。本文探究了中国国有石油公司和其他能源公司之间的互动关系,本文实证发现,中国对哈萨克斯坦的能源投资有助于哈萨克斯坦的经济增长。本文选用哈萨克斯坦能源行业2000年一季度到2016年四季度的数据,分析了石油价格、国内生产总值(GDP)和中国直接投资之间的关系,着重研究了石油价格在哈萨克斯坦经济中扮演的角色。本文发现,石油价格是中国直接投资和哈萨克斯坦经济水平(以GDP为代理变量)的中介变量。本文的主要结果认为,石油价格在短期内对GDP有积极影响。本文的实证分析采用回归模型。回归结果表明,中国直接投资和经济增长正相关。本文的发现也为哈萨克斯坦对中国投资的吸引力提供了证据。本文的目的在于:第一,探索能源行业如何影响哈萨克斯坦经济发展;第二,探究中国直接投资是否能够影响哈萨克斯坦的经济增长;第三,研究石油价格如何影响中国直接投资以及如何影响哈萨克斯坦的经济增长;第四,利用回归模型分析中国直接投资对哈萨克斯坦能源行业的影响。一个国家的能源管理是经济发展的命脉所在,并且对整个国民经济发展的张力与容量也有重大影响。因此,能源问题已经成为一个国家经济、政治、民主和军事的重要限制因素。现代社会,评判一个国家的国际经济竞争力时,其能源战略性控制已经尤其重要。随着经济全球化增长,哈萨克斯坦和中国都进入了高速增长期。从中国行业发展的角度看,与哈萨克斯坦的能源资源的联系取决于哈萨克斯坦的供给,尤其是在石油和天然气方面。因此,两国合作和战略伙伴关系是基于双边经济与社会的和谐发展。已经有不少中国企业陆续进入哈萨克斯坦能源行业,创造和挖掘了很多优质工程项目。本文研究境外投资对哈萨克斯坦经济发展的影响具有重大意义。近年来,哈萨克斯坦政府强烈鼓励和支持吸引投资、引入资本和能源行业发展,以实现经济的复苏与繁荣。与此同时,来自西方发达国家的一些大公司也陆续进入哈萨克斯坦的能源行业。中国对哈萨克斯坦的资本投入不仅仅是受到本地投资环境的吸引,也受到西方投资竞争的压力。基于这样的考虑,本文深入探讨中国直接投资对哈萨克斯坦经济发展的影响,并指出能源行业的中介作用。基于境外投资的相关理论和已有文献,本文提出了中国直接投资影响哈萨克斯坦国民经济的研究模型,以国民生产总值GDP为国民经济的代理变量。近年来,经济学家普遍认为,境外直接投资能够刺激本地经济发展。具体来说,境外投资能够创造就业、带来技术革新、并最终对本地的经济现状产生宏观的积极影响。另外,境外直接投资也与东道国的产业结构革新有关,东道国产业改革优化了本地的整体商业氛围,并提升了本地商业竞争力。哈萨克斯坦作为一个新兴国家,以市场关系为导向,精力集中在产业升级和投资政策的有效实现,最终实现经济的快速增长。境外投资的吸引和有效利用是必要的,这也是哈萨克斯坦与其他国家的共同利益所在。过去十年,哈萨克斯坦的经济飞速增长,年均增长率超过10%。这份完美答卷的背后,石油和天然气,还有采矿业都做出了卓越贡献。吸引境外投资也成为哈萨克斯坦国家发展的重要因素。提及投资地点,每个国家和地区都提供了相当优渥的优惠政策来吸引和适应各种类型的投资项目。现代经济中,石油的最重要的生材料。石油产品在化学品制造业、交通业和能源换代中得到相当广泛的应用。自从石油成为世界生命和经济的重要组成部分,室友和宏观经济的关系也日益凸显,并通过石油价格表现出来。经济学长期关注能够验证石油价格与宏观经济指标关系的实证证据。哈萨克斯坦是石油出口大国,哈萨克斯坦对石油收益的依赖增加了其经济受石油价格外部变动的影响幅度。基于以上分析,本文构建了以石油价格为中介变量的中国直接投资影响哈萨克斯坦国内生产总值的回归模型。本文提出两个假设:第一,中国直接投资与哈萨克斯坦国内生产总值存在正向关系;第二,石油价格对中国直接投资与哈萨克斯坦国内生产总值的关系产生影响。本文的主要内容如下。第一章为绪论,主要介绍所选题目的重要性和必要性,论述了境外投资及其重要影响。本章试图包含所有显示所选题目重要性的材料,同时也指出了本文在撰写过程中可能遇到的挑战。第二章为中国直接投资对哈萨克斯坦能源行业经济的影响理论分析。本章回顾了哈萨克斯坦境外投资的主要理论,尤其是在能源行业的,还具体描述了哈萨克斯坦能源行业的特征。基于此,本章分析了能源行业在国民经济中的重要角色、中国在哈萨克斯坦能源行业的加入的里程碑式作用,以及哈萨克斯坦崛起过程中中国所起到的作用。第三章为中国在能源行业的直接投资对哈萨克斯坦经济发展的影响实证分析。本章构建了中国直接投资对哈萨克斯坦经济增长的回顾模型,并引入石油价格作中介变量,并解释了回顾结果。第四章为结果与讨论。本章对论文全篇的信息进行提炼总结,并提出政策建议,以期使文章结构更加完整,也使论文的理论框架和系统政策更加圆满。本文的研究方法主要采用了线性回归分析法。本文以国内生产总值作为衡量经济增长的代理变量。本文选取这个指标是基于技术进步的基础,实体资本市场的增长、就业的增长、人才的增长、教育和健康的进步等等,最终都可以通过国内经济总值的增长来表现。本文采用的线性回归模型中,解释变量为国内生产总值,被解释变量为中国对哈萨克斯坦能源行业的直接投资,同时引入石油价格以测试其中介效应。本文的数据处理软件为Microsoft Excel。本文的第一个假设为中国直接投资与哈萨克斯坦国内生产总值正相关。因此本文第一个模型及二者之间的线性方程。回归结果显示,R方为0.152,方程F值为2.689,方程显著性为0.122,中国直接投资的系数为正,但没有通过显著性检验。因此,本文得出结果,中国直接投资能够积极影响哈萨克斯坦的经济增长。本文的第二个假设是,在中国直接投资和哈萨克斯坦国内生产总值的正向关系中,石油价格起到中介作用。本文首先估计石油价格与中国直接投资之间的关系,回归结果显示,R方为0.241,方程F值为4.755,方程显著性为0.046,中国直接投资的系数为正,且通过了0.05水平下的显著性检验。接下来,本文估计国内生产总值和石油价格以及中国直接投资之间的关系,回归结果显示,R方为0.502,方程F值为7.061,方程显著性为0.008,中国直接投资系数为正但没有通过显著性检验,石油价格系数为正且通过了0.01水平下的显著性检验。本文还对石油价格、中国直接投资和国内生产总值的相关系数进行分析,发现没有任何两个变量之间的相关系数超过0.7,因此可以纳入同一方程中进行回归。本文的实证结果揭示了,中国直接投资对哈萨克斯坦国内生产总值产生正向作用,并且石油价格在其中扮演了中介变量的角色。本文的两个假设都得到支持。本文的结果再次肯定了哈萨克斯坦作为一个新兴经济体的强大吸引力。这些境外投资最终会转化为哈萨克斯坦的经济增长。境外投资的合理利用能够帮助增加就业机会、引入新技术并最终加强国际的生产力。但在看到这些利好消息时,也应该注意到这些境外投资都是基于哈萨克斯坦的丰富能源。哈萨克斯坦拥有众多石油公司,这些公司都在“挣快钱”。因此,哈萨克斯坦政府应当采用哪些能够积极引导投资合理利用、能够提升国家竞争力的政策。同时,政府应当同时将境外投资引流到制造业、农业、旅游业和基础设施等。
[Abstract]:This paper takes the energy industry as an example to study the impact of China's direct investment on Kazakhstan's economic growth. With the rapid development of China, the demand for imported fossil fuels is expanding. In order to ensure the supply of imported energy resources, the Chinese government supports state-owned oil companies to carry out their business overseas. Since 1997, China and Kazakhstan have started. A close relationship between political and economic cooperation has been established, and the overseas investment of Chinese state-owned oil companies is growing. This paper explores the interaction between China's state-owned oil companies and other energy companies. This paper shows that China's energy source investment in Kazakhstan contributes to the economic growth of Kazakhstan. Using the data of the Kazakhstan energy industry from the first quarter of 2000 to the fourth quarter of 2016, this paper analyzes the relationship between oil prices, GDP and China's direct investment, and focuses on the role of oil prices in Kazakhstan's economy. This article finds that the price of oil is China's direct investment and Kazakhstan. The main result of this paper is that the price of oil has a positive impact on the GDP in the short term. The empirical analysis of this paper uses the regression model. The regression results show that China's direct investment is positively related to the economic growth. The findings of this paper also provide Kazakhstan's attraction for China's investment in Kazakhstan. The purpose of this article is: first, explore how the energy industry affects Kazakhstan's economic development; second, explore whether China's direct investment can affect the economic growth of Kazakhstan; third, how oil prices affect China's direct investment and how to affect Kazakhstan's economic growth; fourth, use regression. The model analyses the impact of China's direct investment on the energy industry in Kazakhstan. The energy management of a country is the lifeblood of economic development, and has a significant impact on the tension and capacity of the national economy. Therefore, the energy problem has become an important limiting factor for a country's economy, politics, democracy and military. Society, when judging a country's international economic competitiveness, its strategic control of energy is particularly important. With the growth of economic globalization, both Kazakhstan and China have entered a period of rapid growth. From the perspective of the development of China's industry, the connection with energy resources in Kazakhstan depends on the supply of Kazakhstan, especially in China. Therefore, the cooperation and strategic partnership between the two countries is based on the harmonious development of bilateral economy and society. Many Chinese enterprises have entered the energy industry in Kazakhstan and have created and excavated many high quality projects. This paper studies the impact of overseas investment on the economic development of Kazakhstan. In recent years, the government of Kazakhstan has strongly encouraged and supported investment in attracting investment and introduced the development of capital and energy industry to achieve economic recovery and prosperity. At the same time, some large companies from western developed countries have also entered the energy industry in Kazakhstan. China's capital investment to Kazakhstan is not only the subject of this. The attraction of the land investment environment is also under the pressure of the western investment competition. Based on this consideration, this paper explores the impact of China's direct investment on the economic development of Kazakhstan, and points out the intermediary role of the energy industry. Based on the related theories and literature of overseas investment, this paper puts forward the impact of China Direct Investment on kazakx. In recent years, economists generally believe that foreign direct investment can stimulate local economic development. In particular, foreign investment can create employment, bring technological innovation, and eventually have a macro positive impact on the local economic situation. In addition, foreign direct investment is also related to the industrial structure innovation of the host country. The domestic industry reform of the host country has optimized the local overall business atmosphere and promoted the local commercial competitiveness. As a new country, Kazakhstan is oriented by market relations, concentrating on the effective realization of industrial upgrading and investment policy, and finally realizing the economy. Rapid growth. The attraction and effective use of foreign investment is necessary, which is the common interest of Kazakhstan and other countries. In the past ten years, Kazakhstan's economy has grown rapidly, and the average annual growth rate exceeds the 10%.'s perfect answer. Oil and gas, as well as the mining industry, have made outstanding contributions. Foreign investment has also become an important factor in the development of Kazakhstan's country. Reference to investment sites, each country and region has provided considerable preferential policies to attract and adapt to various types of investment projects. In the modern economy, the most important raw material for oil. Oil products in chemical products manufacturing, transportation and energy generation. Since oil has become an important part of life and economy in the world, the relationship between roommates and macroeconomics has become increasingly prominent and expressed through oil prices. Economics has long paid attention to the evidence that can verify the relationship between oil prices and macroeconomic indicators. Kazakhstan is a major oil exporter, Hassa. Kstan's dependence on oil revenue increases the impact of its economy on the external changes in oil prices. Based on the above analysis, this paper constructs a regression model of China's gross domestic product (GDP) affecting Kazakhstan's direct investment with oil price as an intermediary variable. This paper puts forward two hypotheses: first, China's direct investment and kazakx. There is a positive relationship between China's gross domestic product (GDP); second, oil prices have an impact on the relationship between direct investment in China and the gross domestic product of Kazakhstan. The main contents of this article are as follows. The first chapter is an introduction, which mainly introduces the importance and necessity of the purpose of the topic, and discusses the foreign investment and its important influence. The material that shows the importance of the selected topic, and also points out the challenges that this article may encounter in the process of writing. The second chapter is the theoretical analysis of the impact of China's direct investment on the economy of the energy industry in Kazakhstan. This chapter reviews the main theories of overseas investment in Kazakhstan, especially in the energy industry, and specifically describes the Hassa. Based on this, this chapter analyzes the important role of the energy industry in the national economy, the milestone role of China's accession to the energy industry in Kazakhstan and the role of China in the process of the rise of Kazakhstan. The third chapter is the direct investment of China in the energy industry to the Kazakhstan Jing. This chapter constructs a retrospective model of China's direct investment in Kazakhstan's economic growth, and introduces the price of oil as an intermediary variable, and explains the review results. The fourth chapter is the result and discussion. This chapter summarizes the information of the whole paper, and puts forward some policy suggestions in order to make the article more structured. This paper mainly uses linear regression analysis. This paper uses GDP as the proxy variable to measure economic growth. This paper is based on the basis of technological progress, the growth of the real capital market, the increase of employment and the increase of talent. The length, education and health progress, and so on, can eventually be shown by the growth of GDP. In this paper, the linear regression model is interpreted as gross domestic product (GDP), which is interpreted as China's direct investment in the energy industry in Kazakhstan, while introducing the price of oil to test its intermediary effect. The first hypothesis that the processing software is Microsoft Excel. is that China's direct investment is positively related to the gross domestic product of Kazakhstan. Therefore, the first model and the linear equation between the two, the regression results show that the R square is 0.152, the equation F is 2.689, the equation is 0.122, the coefficient of China's direct investment is positive, but there is no The second hypothesis of this paper is that oil prices play an intermediary role in the positive relationship between China's direct investment and the gross domestic product of Kazakhstan. This paper first estimates the price of oil and the direct investment of China in Kazakhstan. The regression results show that the R square is 0.241, the equation F value is 4.755, the equation is 0.046, the coefficient of China's direct investment is positive, and the significant test under the 0.05 level is passed. Next, this article estimates the relationship between the gross domestic product and the oil price and the direct investment in China, and the regression results show that the R side is 0.502, The F value of the equation is 7.061, the equation is 0.008, the direct investment coefficient of China is positive but does not pass the significant test. The oil price coefficient is positive and passes the significant test under the 0.01 level. This paper also analyzes the correlation coefficient of oil price, China direct investment and GDP, and finds no two variables. The correlation coefficient is more than 0.7, so it can be included in the same equation. The empirical results show that China's direct investment has a positive effect on the GDP of Kazakhstan, and the price of oil plays the role of intermediary variable. The two hypotheses of this paper are all supported. The results of this paper will be renewed again. The strong attraction of Kazakhstan as an emerging economy will eventually translate into economic growth in Kazakhstan. The rational use of foreign investment can help to increase employment opportunities, introduce new technologies and eventually strengthen international productivity. But they should also notice these good news. Foreign investment is based on Kazakhstan's rich energy. Kazakhstan has a large number of oil companies, all of which are "making fast money". So, the government should adopt a policy that will actively guide the rational use of investment to enhance the competitiveness of the country. Meanwhile, the government should simultaneously drain the foreign investment to the Kazakhstan. Manufacturing, agriculture, tourism and infrastructure.
【学位授予单位】：哈尔滨工业大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F125;F136.1

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