“塑化剂”事件对行业股价影响研究

发布时间：2018-07-08 18:38

本文选题：事件研究 + 累计异常收益率　；参考：《上海交通大学》2014年硕士论文

【摘要】：最近几年食品安全事件层出不穷，就在不久前的2012年11月19日，21世纪网发表《致命危机：酒鬼酒塑化剂超标260%》将酒鬼酒推向了风口浪尖上，该“塑化剂”事件使得酒鬼酒两个星期来股价由47.58元下降到27.32元，累计降幅达42.58%，市值蒸发了65.83亿元，整个白酒行业也相应蒸发了300亿元。本文正是在该背景下来研究“塑化剂”事件对酒相关行业股价的影响。本文第一章首先介绍研究背景、意义及方法，，然后重点介绍国内外相关的文献，以作为后面章节实证分析的理论基础。然后第二章介绍塑化剂的定义、危害、来源以及对整个事件的简短回顾。接下来第三章先定性分析、然后采用事件研究法并运用市场模型及均值调整模型来定量分析该事件对酒鬼酒及相关行业股价造成的影响，结果发现影响最大的是酒鬼酒公司，其次是白酒、黄酒行业，其他酒行业甚至整个食品行业受到不同程度的负面影响。紧接着在第四章，通过多元回归分析来研究哪些因素导致了不同企业有不同程度的负面影响，结果表明资本密集度、会计师事务所类型显著为正，能减轻负面影响程度，而董事长或总裁类型、审计意见、流通股变量显著为负，加大了负面影响程度。最后本文对相关企业的公关进行了分析，并指出需要改良的地方，同时提出如何公关以给相关上市公司以启示，并提升到对如何避免类似食品事件的发生提出了一些政策性的意见，期望对企业及管理者有所贡献。
[Abstract]:In recent years, food safety incidents have come out in an endless stream. In November 19, 2012, on twenty-first Century, net published < fatal crisis: liquor wine plasticizer superstandard 260%> pushed the wine wine to the top of the wind and wave. The "plasticizer" incident reduced the stock price from 47.58 yuan to 27.32 yuan for two weeks. The cumulative decline was 42.58%, the market value was steamed. 6 billion 583 million yuan, the whole liquor industry has also evaporated 30 billion yuan. This is the background of the study of the "plasticizer" event on the price of wine related industry.
The first chapter introduces the research background, significance and methods, and then focuses on the relevant literature at home and abroad as the theoretical basis for the empirical analysis of the later chapters. Then the second chapter introduces the definition of the plasticizer, the harm, the source and the brief review of the whole event. Then the third chapter is first qualitative analysis, and then the event study method is used. The market model and the mean adjustment model were used to quantitatively analyze the impact of the event on the stock price of wine spirits and related industries. The results found that the biggest impact was liquor wine company, followed by liquor, yellow wine industry, other wine industry and even the whole food industry. The fourth chapters were followed by multiple factors. Regression analysis to study which factors lead to different degree of negative impact of different enterprises, the results show that capital density, accounting firm type is significantly positive, can reduce the degree of negative impact, and the chairman's or president type, audit opinion, circulation stock variable significantly negative, increase the negative impact degree. Finally, this paper to related enterprises The public relations of the industry were analyzed, and the areas needed to be improved were pointed out. At the same time, public relations were proposed to enlighten the relevant listed companies and to raise some policy opinions on how to avoid similar food incidents, and expected to contribute to enterprises and managers.
【学位授予单位】：上海交通大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51;F426.82

【参考文献】