上市公司中期财务报告的预测价值研究

发布时间：2018-07-20 17:54

【摘要】：中期财务报告作为年度财务报告的重要补充,弥补了年度财务报告周期过长的不足,为信息使用者提供了及时、有效的信息。从1993年国务院开始要求我国上市公司披露半年度财务报告起,时至今日,中期财务报告在我国已有20余年的发展历史,中期财务报告的披露制度也在日趋完善。然而,独立观的编制基础在保证了中期财务报告信息可靠性的情况下,中期财务报告信息的相关性如何也受到了大家的广泛关注。因此,本文在借鉴国内外相关研究基础上,对中期财务报告信息相关性的一个重要方面一预测价值进行了研究,为深入了解和证实我国中期财务报告信息的相关性以及如何提高中期财务报告信息质量提供了参考依据。本文首先介绍了选题的背景及意义,综述了目前中期财务报告预测价值的研究现状。其次,对中期财务报告的相关理论进行了概述。再次,本文对影响中期财务报告预测价值的因素进行分析,并据此提出了相关研究假设。接着,以我国深证主板A股上市公司的中期财务报告为研究对象,采用九种中期报告预测模型和三种年度报告预测模型,选取每股收益和主营业务收入这两个盈利指标作为预测指标对年度盈余进行预测,然后利用三种方法来分析我国中期财务报告是否具有预测价值。在此基础上,本文还检验了非强制性中期审计制度和ST、PT制度对中期财务报告预测价值的影响。最后,文章对实证检验的结果进行分析总结,并提出相关的建议。本文的研究结论表明：与年度财务报告相比,我国中期财务报告具有相对较高的预测价值；中期审计有助于提高中期财务报告的预测价值；以主营业务收入为预测指标时,普通上市公司中期财务报告的预测价值显著优于ST、PT上市公司的中期财务报告,但以每股收益为预测指标时,普通上市公司中期财务报告的预测价值并不明显好于ST、PT上市公司的中期财务报告。
[Abstract]:As an important supplement of the annual financial report, the interim financial report makes up for the deficiency of the long period of the annual financial report, and provides timely and effective information for the information user. Since 1993, the State Council began to ask the listed companies to disclose the semi-annual financial report. Up to now, the interim financial report has been developed for more than 20 years in our country, and the disclosure system of the interim financial report is becoming more and more perfect. However, under the condition of ensuring the reliability of the interim financial report information, the relevance of the interim financial report information has been paid more and more attention. Therefore, based on the relevant research at home and abroad, this paper makes a study on the predictive value, which is an important aspect of the correlation of interim financial report information. It provides a reference for further understanding and confirming the relevance of the interim financial report information and how to improve the quality of the interim financial report information. This paper first introduces the background and significance of the topic, and summarizes the current research status of the medium-term financial report forecast value. Secondly, the related theory of interim financial report is summarized. Thirdly, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the forecast value of interim financial statements, and puts forward the relevant research hypotheses. Then, taking the interim financial statements of the A-share listed companies on the main board of Shenzhen Stock Exchange as the research object, nine kinds of interim report forecasting models and three kinds of annual report forecasting models are adopted. This paper selects earnings per share and main business income as the forecast index to forecast the annual earnings, and then uses three methods to analyze whether the interim financial report of our country has the forecast value. On this basis, this paper also examines the impact of the non-mandatory interim audit system and STPT-system on the forecast value of interim financial statements. Finally, the paper analyzes and summarizes the results of empirical test, and puts forward relevant suggestions. The conclusion of this paper shows that: compared with the annual financial report, the interim financial report of our country has relatively high forecast value, the interim audit is helpful to improve the forecast value of the medium-term financial report, and when the main business income is used as the forecast index, The forecast value of the interim financial report of the common listed company is significantly better than that of the STPT-listed company, but when the earnings per share is taken as the predictor, The forecast value of interim financial statements of ordinary listed companies is not obviously better than that of STPT-listed companies.
【学位授予单位】：天津财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F275;F832.51

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