木马村棚户区改造项目贷款调查报告

发布时间：2018-09-05 14:16

【摘要】：发端于美国房地产市场的次贷危机使得全球经济面临自1929年大萧条以来最大的一次危机。面对次贷危机,我国开启了4万亿的经济刺激计划,避免我国经济进入衰退。随着经济刺激计划的推出,使得我国固定资产投资水平迅速提升,极大的稳定了GDP的走势。我国房地产行业在本轮宽松政策中,获得了较为明显的发展,充分发挥了支柱产业的地位和影响。房地产的如火如茶造成了房价的节节攀升,一定程度上影响到了社会管理,成为了摆在中央政府面前的一道难题。党的十八大以来,我国中央政府继续维持了房地产行业的信贷紧缩政策,从城镇化着手,以棚户区改造为主要手段,从而达到调整经济结构的目标。作为商业银行,紧跟宏观政策是其本职工作。作为国有大型商业银行,中国工商银行在保证商业银行盈利性的基础上,紧跟国家政策导向,适时推出棚户区改造贷款产品,优化资源配置,推动经济发展。目前的相关研究表明,以政府做主导的棚户区改造有明显的制度优势,但占多数的是给出政策建议和制度保障,而没有从银行业务角度研究棚户区改造,因此针对具体的棚户区项目进行分析调查,具有重要的现实意义。从银行角度来看,判断棚户区项目的优劣与否的核心,在于对项目本身的评估。具体来讲就是根据项目的可行性研究报告,采用现金流量法对项目的借款人、项目情况、盈利能力、偿债能力进行评价,为科学决策提供依据。其中,偿债能力评价是重中之重,从拆迁进度、工程成本、资金筹集、资金成本、配套设施建设、项目收益等多个方面进行合理预测。在假设选取上,通常采用历史经验数据、市场公允价值、可比项目或可比公司等方法确认,力争选取合理的假设。在完成基准项目评估的基础上,进行敏感性分析,寻找关键敏感指标,并针对关键敏感指标进行情景测试。通常选取最好和最差的情景进行测试,以保证在最大压力的情景下银行仍有控制风险的能力。在经济下行期,详尽可靠的尽职调查对于银行的风险管理起着重要的作用。因此,加强对项目评估为核心的尽职调查的研究,有重要意义。
[Abstract]:The subprime mortgage crisis, which began in the U.S. housing market, has left the global economy facing its biggest crisis since the Great Depression of 1929. In the face of the subprime mortgage crisis, China has launched a $4 trillion economic stimulus plan to avoid a recession. With the introduction of the economic stimulus plan, the level of fixed asset investment in China has rapidly increased, greatly stabilizing the trend of GDP. In this round of loose policy, the real estate industry of our country has got more obvious development, giving full play to the status and influence of the pillar industry. The fire of real estate has caused the price of house price to climb, which has affected the social management to some extent, and has become a difficult problem in front of the central government. Since the 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China, the central government has continued to maintain the credit tightening policy of the real estate industry, starting from the urbanization, taking the shantytown transformation as the main means, so as to achieve the goal of readjusting the economic structure. As a commercial bank, it is its duty to keep up with macro policy. As a large state-owned commercial bank, the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, on the basis of ensuring the profitability of the commercial bank, closely follows the guidance of the national policy, timely introduces the shantytown transformation loan products, optimizes the allocation of resources, and promotes economic development. The current relevant studies show that the transformation of shantytowns led by the government has obvious institutional advantages, but most of them give policy recommendations and institutional safeguards, and do not study shantytown reconstruction from the perspective of banking business. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to analyze and investigate the specific shantytown projects. From the bank point of view, the core of judging the shantytown project lies in the evaluation of the project itself. Specifically, according to the feasibility study report of the project, the cash flow method is used to evaluate the borrower, the project situation, the profitability and the solvency of the project, which provides the basis for scientific decision-making. Among them, the evaluation of solvency is the most important, from the demolition progress, project cost, fund raising, capital cost, supporting facilities construction, project income and other aspects of reasonable prediction. In the selection of assumptions, historical experience data, market fair value, comparable items or comparable companies are usually used to confirm, and strive to select reasonable assumptions. Based on the completion of the baseline project evaluation, sensitivity analysis is carried out to find key sensitive indicators, and scenario tests are carried out for the key sensitive indicators. The best and worst scenarios are usually tested to ensure that banks are still able to control risk under the most stressful scenario. During the economic downturn, thorough and reliable due diligence plays an important role in risk management of banks. Therefore, it is of great significance to strengthen the research of due diligence which is the core of project evaluation.
【学位授予单位】：郑州大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F299.2;F832.4

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