我国股票定投的收益测算、比较及策略选择

发布时间：2018-09-09 08:15

【摘要】：现阶段中国普通老百姓的投资渠道是较为匮乏的：投资于股票、基金的风险较大,进行银行定期存款则难以实现资产的保值增值。定期投资是一种较好的适合普通工薪阶层的投资方式,目前在我国已发展到相当的规模。本文将股票定投与基金定投进行比较,试图比较基金定投与股票定投间哪种方式更好,股票定投是否可以取代基金定投。本文以成本分析的方法推导了计算银行定存、基金定投、股票定投收益率的公式,并以已经存在的数据为基础,对30只股票在2003—2013年十年时间段进行了股票定投的模拟操作,并对收益和风险进行了详尽的测算。计算了在这十年时间内执行这三种投资方式所能获取的投资收益率、标准差及夏普比率,并以这三项指标为主要依据对股票定投及基金定投进行横向比较,最终得出结论：股票定投优于基金定投。这在目前我国股票定投的投资规模几乎为零的背景下,有很强的现实意义和经济效应。本文比较了在股票市场处于上升期、下跌期、震荡期进行股票定投和基金定投之间的收益与风险,初步探讨了产生差异的原因;计算了针对行业龙头、针对成长类公司、针对消费类公司三种股票定投策略在同一市场周期内所能获取的收益,分析了单位风险对应的收益大小,比较了三种股票定投策略的差别,并最终得出结论：最佳的股票定投策略是长期定投于具备明显品牌优势的消费类龙头公司。
[Abstract]:At this stage, the ordinary Chinese people's investment channels are relatively scarce: investing in stocks, the risk of funds is greater, and it is difficult to maintain and increase the value of assets by bank time deposits. Term investment is a better investment method suitable for the ordinary working class, and it has developed to a considerable scale in our country at present. This paper compares stock fixed investment with fund fixed investment to try to compare which way is better between fund fixed investment and stock fixed investment and whether stock fixed investment can replace fund fixed investment. In this paper, the formula of fixed deposit, fixed fund and stock fixed return is derived by the method of cost analysis. Based on the existing data, 30 stocks are simulated in the ten years from 2003 to 2013. And has carried on the detailed measurement to the income and the risk. The return rate of investment, standard deviation and Sharpe ratio obtained from the implementation of these three types of investment in the 10-year period are calculated, and the horizontal comparison between stock fixed investment and fund fixed investment is made on the basis of these three indicators. Finally come to the conclusion: the stock fixed investment is better than the fund fixed investment. This has very strong practical significance and economic effect under the background that the investment scale of stock fixed investment in our country is almost zero at present. This paper compares the income and risk between fixed investment and fixed investment in stock market during the period of rising, falling and fluctuating, and discusses the reasons for the difference, calculates the industry leader, and aims at the growth company. Aiming at the return of three stock fixed investment strategies in consumption companies in the same market cycle, this paper analyzes the corresponding return of unit risk, and compares the differences of three stock fixed investment strategies. Finally, the conclusion is drawn that the best strategy is to invest in consumer leading companies with obvious brand advantages for a long time.
【学位授予单位】：湖南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.51

【参考文献】