县级中国农业发展银行贷款需求预测模型的研究和分析
发布时间：2018-09-14 19:51
【摘要】：本研究主要研究分析县级区域的农业经济发展形势和贷款资金规模的关系。以江西宜黄县为样本，搜集与县级农业发展银行贷款资金需求规模相关的一些指标数据，并采用Person相关性的分析方法，找出与其相关指标。然后，，利用灰色预测模型GM（1，1）对各个指标的后期变化趋势进行合理地预测，并尝试利用多元线性回归模型对县级农业发展银行的贷款资金需求规模进行预测，并给出宜黄县的数值仿真结果。主要得到如下结论： （1）宜黄县农业经济发展的各项数据指标之间与该县农业发展银行的贷款资金规模之间存在显著的正相关关系。其中，对县级农业发展银行贷款规模有影响的主要经济指标有：GDP、财政收入、农民人均纯收入、社会消费品零售总额、粮食产量等。 （2）以宜黄县农业发展银行贷款资金需求规模问题为例，展开的数值仿真结果显示：本研究中提出多重GM（1，1）回归预测模型基本达到预期目的，是从灰色理论出发进行的一次较为有益的尝试。 （3）在2014年—2018年之间，宜黄县农业发展银行的贷款需求规模大体上会呈现逐步上升的趋势，但是，需要注意的是上升的速度与2011年相比会显著放缓。
[Abstract]:This study mainly analyzes the relationship between the agricultural economic development situation and the scale of loan funds in county-level regions. Taking Yihuang County of Jiangxi Province as a sample, this paper collects some index data related to the scale of loan fund demand of agricultural development bank at county level, and uses the method of Person correlation analysis to find out the relevant indexes. Then, the grey prediction model GM (1 / 1) is used to predict the late change trend of each index reasonably, and the multivariate linear regression model is used to predict the loan capital demand scale of the county agricultural development bank. The numerical simulation results of Yihuang County are given. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) there is a significant positive correlation between the data of agricultural economic development in Yihuang County and the loan capital scale of the Agricultural Development Bank of Yihuang County. Among them, the main economic indicators that have an impact on the loan size of the county-level agricultural development bank are: GDP, fiscal income, per capita net income of farmers, total retail sales of social consumer goods, (2) taking the scale of loan fund demand of Yihuang Agricultural Development Bank as an example, the numerical simulation results show that: in this study, the multiple GM (1 ~ 1) regression prediction model has basically achieved the expected purpose. It is a useful attempt based on grey theory. (3) between 2014 and 2018, the loan demand of Yihuang County Agricultural Development Bank will increase gradually, but, It is important to note that the rate of increase will be significantly slower than in 2011.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.4
本文编号：2243707
[Abstract]:This study mainly analyzes the relationship between the agricultural economic development situation and the scale of loan funds in county-level regions. Taking Yihuang County of Jiangxi Province as a sample, this paper collects some index data related to the scale of loan fund demand of agricultural development bank at county level, and uses the method of Person correlation analysis to find out the relevant indexes. Then, the grey prediction model GM (1 / 1) is used to predict the late change trend of each index reasonably, and the multivariate linear regression model is used to predict the loan capital demand scale of the county agricultural development bank. The numerical simulation results of Yihuang County are given. The main conclusions are as follows: (1) there is a significant positive correlation between the data of agricultural economic development in Yihuang County and the loan capital scale of the Agricultural Development Bank of Yihuang County. Among them, the main economic indicators that have an impact on the loan size of the county-level agricultural development bank are: GDP, fiscal income, per capita net income of farmers, total retail sales of social consumer goods, (2) taking the scale of loan fund demand of Yihuang Agricultural Development Bank as an example, the numerical simulation results show that: in this study, the multiple GM (1 ~ 1) regression prediction model has basically achieved the expected purpose. It is a useful attempt based on grey theory. (3) between 2014 and 2018, the loan demand of Yihuang County Agricultural Development Bank will increase gradually, but, It is important to note that the rate of increase will be significantly slower than in 2011.
【学位授予单位】：南昌大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2014
【分类号】：F832.4
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