地方官员变更与企业兴衰——来自地级市层面的证据

发布时间：2018-02-22 19:15

  本文关键词： 地方官员 企业 生存分析　出处：《中国工业经济》2017年01期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：由于中国地方政府对经济的强大影响力,政府官员变更可能会影响当地部分企业的生存与发展。其中的影响机制有:政策不连续性、官员贪腐行为以及政企关系重新调整等。为此,本文收集了中国1999—2009年2000多任地级市市长和市委书记的数据,并与辖区内的企业匹配来识别地方官员对企业生存的影响。运用Kaplan-Meier乘积限估计方法绘制的生存函数和风险函数图显示,官员变更时企业的生存时间更短、倒闭风险更高。在此基础上运用生存分析模型进行更为精确的实证检验,结果发现:官员变更会显著增加企业的倒闭风险,并且这一风险存在多期滞后效应;但官员变更引致的退出风险在不同所有制企业之间有所不同,其中,对国有企业、尤其是非中央国有企业的风险增加尤为明显;任期的稳定有助于降低企业经营风险,并且任期对官员变更导致的风险有调节作用。本文还特别关注了官员自身特征对变更引致风险的影响,发现本地晋升的官员、在出生地任职的官员、学历水平较高的官员引致的企业倒闭风险较低。本研究为如何降低官员变更引发的企业经营风险提供了具有可行性的决策依据,同时为科学制定官员选拔和任用制度提供了有益的政策启示。
[Abstract]:Because of the strong influence of Chinese local governments on the economy, the change of government officials may affect the survival and development of some local enterprises. Official corruption and readjustment of the relationship between government and enterprise. For this reason, this paper collected data on more than 2000 prefecture-level mayors and party secretaries in China from 1999 to 2009. The survival function and risk function chart drawn by the Kaplan-Meier product limit estimation method show that the survival time of the enterprise is shorter when the officials change. The risk of bankruptcy is higher. On this basis, the survival analysis model is used to carry out more accurate empirical test. The results show that: the change of officials will significantly increase the risk of bankruptcy of enterprises, and this risk has a multi-period lag effect; However, the exit risk caused by the change of officials is different among different ownership enterprises, among which, the increase of risks to state-owned enterprises, especially non-central state-owned enterprises, is particularly obvious; the stability of tenure helps to reduce the operating risks of enterprises. And the term of office has a moderating effect on the risk caused by the change of officials. This paper also pays special attention to the influence of the characteristics of the official on the risk caused by the change. It is found that the local promoted official, the official in the place of birth, the official in the place of birth, The risk of enterprise failure caused by higher education level officials is lower. This study provides a feasible decision basis for how to reduce the risk of enterprise operation caused by the change of officials. At the same time, it provides a beneficial policy inspiration for the scientific formulation of the system of selecting and appointing officials.
【作者单位】： 大连理工大学管理与经济学部;合肥工业大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社会科学基金一般项目“琼斯批评后研发与经济增长关系的再讨论及中国稳态增长路径构建”(批准号15BJL010) 辽宁省社会科学基金一般项目“企业工资决定机制”(批准号L11BJY007)
【分类号】：D630;F279.27
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本文编号：1525096