上市公司并购重组价值评估中收益法的改进应用研究

发布时间：2018-04-13 06:26

本文选题：收益法 + 折现率　；参考：《深圳大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：在经济日益迅猛发展的今天,企业产业化集中的趋势加剧,通过发挥资本市场的积极力量,提升了企业的经营格局与市场地位,增强了经济发展的动力,并成为推动中国经济持续稳定且持续发展的强大助力。随着国内IPO政策收紧,独立自主上市难度逐步上升,企业私有化、收购、兼并等企业重组活动更为频繁,而如何对企业资产合理定价成为了重组中最重要的问题之一。目前,市场上将独立第三方评估机构对标的资产的评估报告作为交易定价重要的参考依据。本文重点结合2014年与2015年我国上市公司并购重组的评估报告中的数据,通过使用统计分析对收益法的选用和参数确定的现状进行分析,尤其是折现率的模型与各参数的使用情况。从而发现:(1)企业自由现金流折现模型更受到资产评估师青睐;(2)资产评估师主要选择3至7年左右明确预测阶段;(3)市场风险溢价集中在5%至10%之间;(4)特别风险调整系数?集中于2%至5%之间。然而,在实际应用过程中,折现率并未随着收益额的变动而改变,影响了评估结果的精确程度,应当对折现率的计算方法进行动态化的修正。通过使用时间序列预测的方法,从而计算出动态折现率的值。并结合具体案例对修正后的计算方法进行验证。最后,针对收益法的评估过程进行总结,发现收益法存在参数的自变动性,参数之间的相互影响以及新兴行业难以评估等三个问题,日后可通过扩大研究样本容量、建立适用于新兴行业的评估体系以及提高资产评估师职业素养等三个方面对本文改进。
[Abstract]:Today, with the rapid economic development, the trend of enterprise industrialization concentration intensifies. By giving full play to the positive force of the capital market, it has enhanced the business structure and market position of the enterprise and enhanced the power of economic development.And become a powerful force to promote China's sustained economic stability and sustainable development.With the tightening of domestic IPO policy, the difficulty of independent listing is gradually increasing, and the activities of enterprise reorganization, such as privatization, acquisition, merger and so on, become more frequent, and how to reasonably price the assets of enterprises becomes one of the most important problems in reorganization.At present, the evaluation report of the underlying assets by the independent third party evaluation agency is regarded as the important reference basis for the transaction pricing in the market.This paper focuses on the analysis of the current situation of income approach selection and parameter determination by using statistical analysis based on the data from the evaluation report on mergers and acquisitions of listed companies in China in 2014 and 2015.In particular, the discount rate model and the use of each parameter.Thus it is found that the discounted free cash flow model of enterprises is more favored by asset appraisers.) the asset appraisers mainly choose three to seven years or so to make a clear forecast stage.) the market risk premium is concentrated in the range of 5% to 10%) and the special risk adjustment coefficient is 4%.Concentrated in the range of 2% to 5%.However, in the practical application process, the discount rate does not change with the change of the return amount, which affects the accuracy of the evaluation results, so the calculation method of the discount rate should be revised dynamically.By using the method of time series prediction, the value of dynamic discount rate is calculated.And combined with specific cases to verify the revised calculation method.Finally, this paper summarizes the evaluation process of income approach, and finds that there are three problems in income approach, such as the self-variation of parameters, the interaction between parameters, and the difficulty in evaluating emerging industries. In the future, we can expand the sample size of the study.This paper is improved from three aspects: establishing an evaluation system suitable for new industries and improving the professional quality of asset appraisers.
【学位授予单位】：深圳大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F832.51;F271;F275

【参考文献】