财务报表信息对企业财务困境的预测能力

发布时间：2018-04-20 09:24

  本文选题：财务比率 + 财务困境　； 参考：《预测》2016年05期

【摘要】：本文利用持续期模型,基于1996~2013年A股上市公司共16000个公司-年观测值,重新估计了经典的Z积分模型、Probit模型以及Beaver等的风险模型变量对财务困境的解释作用,研究了我国上市公司财务报表信息对财务困境预测能力的变化情况。实证结果表明,财务报表信息对企业财务困境有着重要的解释力,仅资产经营利润率和杠杆率两个指标就足以解释中国上市公司的财务困境,这二者所构成的持续期模型的预测准确度达到了0.98。财务比率作为一种分析工具对预测企业财务困境有着重要的应用价值,其作用应被强调而不是被降级。
[Abstract]:Using the duration model, based on the annual observations of 16000 A-share listed companies from 1996 to 2013, this paper reestimated the explanation of financial distress by the classical Z-integral model, probit model, and the risk model variables of Beaver et al. This paper studies the change of financial statement information to financial distress prediction ability of listed companies in China. The empirical results show that the information of financial statements has an important explanatory power to explain the financial distress of enterprises. Only two indicators of asset operating profit rate and leverage ratio can explain the financial distress of listed companies in China. The prediction accuracy of the two models is 0.98. As an analytical tool, financial ratio plays an important role in predicting the financial distress of enterprises, and its function should be emphasized rather than downgraded.
【作者单位】： 华南理工大学工商管理学院;广东外语外贸大学会计学院;
【基金】：广东省软科学研究计划资助项目(2014A070703005) 中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(2015KXKYJ01)
【分类号】：F275
，

本文编号：1777198