现金流波动性对企业价值影响的实证分析
发布时间：2018-07-21 21:40
【摘要】：越来越多的学者和实务界的人士认识到现金流及其波动性对企业价值的影响,现金流剧烈波动提高了企业未来发展、收益的不确定性,增加了企业运营的风险,影响企业的投资活动和融资活动,进而对企业的盈利和价值产生影响。理论界和实务界开始把现金流波动性纳入企业价值评估的范畴。本文通过理论探讨和实证分析,对现金流波动对企业价值的影响进行分析,并对影响的具体路径进行研究。本文的研究有助于完善和丰富企业价值评估体系,并为企业经营者、投资界、债权人和评估机构提供一定的参考。本文首先对研究背景、研究意义和目的进行阐述,其次介绍了研究的相关理论及有关现金流波动、企业价值及二者联系的研究,并对有关文献进行总结;再次介绍了本文的研究假设,数据和变量的选取及有关模型的设定,在此基础上对现金流波动的时间和行业特征进行了分析;最后利用面板模型分析经营净现金流波动性、净现金流波动性、企业自由现金流波动性对企业价值的影响,并对现金流波动对企业价值影响的具体路径进行分析和研究。研究结果显示,经营净现金流波动性、净现金流波动性、企业自由现金流波动性均对企业价值有显著的负向影响,现金流波动通过权益资本成本、资产负债率、资产收益率对企业价值产生影响。在实证研究的结论上,本文提出了针对企业经营者、投资人、债权人和资产评估机构的建议和意见,这些建议和意见有助于更好地识别企业风险、更加合理的评估企业价值。
[Abstract]:More and more scholars and practitioners realize the influence of cash flow and its volatility on the enterprise value. The sharp fluctuation of cash flow increases the future development of enterprise, the uncertainty of income and the risk of enterprise operation. The investment and financing activities of enterprises are affected, and then the profit and value of enterprises are affected. The theory and practice circles begin to bring the cash flow volatility into the category of enterprise value evaluation. Through theoretical discussion and empirical analysis, this paper analyzes the influence of cash flow fluctuation on enterprise value, and studies the specific path of influence. The research in this paper is helpful to improve and enrich the evaluation system of enterprise value, and to provide some references for enterprise managers, investors, creditors and evaluation institutions. In this paper, the background, significance and purpose of the research are described, and then the related theories and the research on the fluctuation of cash flow, the enterprise value and the relationship between the two are introduced, and the relevant literature is summarized. Then it introduces the research hypotheses, the selection of data and variables and the setting of relevant models. On this basis, the paper analyzes the time and industry characteristics of cash flow fluctuation, and finally uses panel model to analyze the volatility of net operating cash flow. The influence of net cash flow volatility and enterprise free cash flow volatility on firm value is analyzed and studied. The results show that the volatility of net operating cash flow and the volatility of free cash flow have a significant negative impact on the value of the enterprise. The fluctuation of cash flow is through the cost of equity capital, the ratio of assets and liabilities. The rate of return on assets has an impact on the value of the enterprise. In the conclusion of the empirical study, this paper puts forward the suggestions and opinions for the enterprise managers, investors, creditors and asset appraisal institutions. These suggestions and opinions are helpful to better identify the enterprise risk and evaluate the enterprise value more reasonably.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275
[Abstract]:More and more scholars and practitioners realize the influence of cash flow and its volatility on the enterprise value. The sharp fluctuation of cash flow increases the future development of enterprise, the uncertainty of income and the risk of enterprise operation. The investment and financing activities of enterprises are affected, and then the profit and value of enterprises are affected. The theory and practice circles begin to bring the cash flow volatility into the category of enterprise value evaluation. Through theoretical discussion and empirical analysis, this paper analyzes the influence of cash flow fluctuation on enterprise value, and studies the specific path of influence. The research in this paper is helpful to improve and enrich the evaluation system of enterprise value, and to provide some references for enterprise managers, investors, creditors and evaluation institutions. In this paper, the background, significance and purpose of the research are described, and then the related theories and the research on the fluctuation of cash flow, the enterprise value and the relationship between the two are introduced, and the relevant literature is summarized. Then it introduces the research hypotheses, the selection of data and variables and the setting of relevant models. On this basis, the paper analyzes the time and industry characteristics of cash flow fluctuation, and finally uses panel model to analyze the volatility of net operating cash flow. The influence of net cash flow volatility and enterprise free cash flow volatility on firm value is analyzed and studied. The results show that the volatility of net operating cash flow and the volatility of free cash flow have a significant negative impact on the value of the enterprise. The fluctuation of cash flow is through the cost of equity capital, the ratio of assets and liabilities. The rate of return on assets has an impact on the value of the enterprise. In the conclusion of the empirical study, this paper puts forward the suggestions and opinions for the enterprise managers, investors, creditors and asset appraisal institutions. These suggestions and opinions are helpful to better identify the enterprise risk and evaluate the enterprise value more reasonably.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F275
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