移动通信技术扩散的实证研究:基于中国1990-2012年的统计数据

发布时间：2018-03-10 03:36

本文选题：移动通信　切入点：技术创新　出处：《当代经济科学》2013年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：移动通信技术创新与扩散对于中国电信改革和竞争性电信市场结构的形成具有重要意义。本文建立了技术扩散模型,拟合移动通信在中国的扩散过程,并通过建立移动通信扩散方程,运用省级面板数据分析移动通信技术扩散的影响因素。结果表明:东部地区的移动通信扩散速度和饱和移动通信普及率都要高于中西部地区。回归分析的结果为:固定电话普及率、现有移动电话普及率、运营商数量、电信综合价格水平、人口密度都是影响移动通信技术扩散速度的显著因素。人均GDP、城市化水平和技术创新虽然对扩散速度没有显著的影响,但是估计结果的符号和我们预期是一致的。移动电话和固定电话之间的关系,随着时间而发生改变,在前期表现为互补关系,在后期则表现为替代关系。为了促进移动通信业发展,政府应重视规制政策、产业政策以及科技政策的有机结合。
[Abstract]:The innovation and diffusion of mobile communication technology is of great significance to the reform of Chinese telecom and the formation of competitive telecom market structure. In this paper, a technology diffusion model is established to fit the diffusion process of mobile communication in China. And by establishing the diffusion equation of mobile communication, Using provincial panel data to analyze the influencing factors of mobile communication technology diffusion, the results show that the mobile communication diffusion speed and saturated mobile communication penetration rate in the eastern region are higher than those in the central and western regions. The results of regression analysis are as follows:. Fixed telephone penetration rate, The current mobile phone penetration rate, the number of operators, the comprehensive price level of telecommunications, and the population density are all significant factors affecting the speed of mobile communication technology diffusion. Although the per capita GDP, urbanization level and technological innovation have no significant impact on the diffusion rate, But the symbols of the estimate are in line with what we expect. The relationship between mobile and fixed phones, which changes over time, appears to be complementary in the early stages. In order to promote the development of mobile communication industry, the government should pay attention to the organic combination of regulation policy, industrial policy and science and technology policy.
【作者单位】：西安交通大学经济与金融学院;
【基金】：国家自然科学基金项目“基于网络外部性的信息产业标准化政策与反垄断政策研究”(70873091) 国家社会科学基金项目“新一轮世界经济结构调整期中国应对新贸易保护主义的策略研究”(13BJL044) 陕西省软科学计划项目“陕西省信息技术企业标准化战略研究”(2007KR68);陕西省软科学计划项目“陕西省电信业发展战略研究”(2011KRM33)
【分类号】：F623;F224

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