中国电信业发展与国民经济增长之间的关系：外生性及协整问题研究

发布时间：2018-03-24 22:32

本文选题：电信业发展　切入点：经济增长　出处：《北京邮电大学》2017年硕士论文

【摘要】：信息经济时代,电信业在信息扩散和提升组织效率方面促进了各行各业的发展,由此推动了国民经济的快速增长。同样,信息技术的高速发展也离不开国民经济的强力支持。因此,有关电信业发展和国民经济增长之间关系的研究,受到众多学者的关注。但是在不同经济时期,电信业在发展过程中也会出现各种问题,从而在一定程度上影响经济增长。比如电信业发展初期,由于其身处自然垄断地位缺乏自主提高服务效率的动力,不能充分满足国民经济发展的需要;电信业政企合一的管理体制不利于其提高产业效率而影响整体经济增长等。因此,电信业在其发展过程中不断进行着各种改革,以期改革后的电信业能够更好地服务于国民经济发展。那么,我国电信业的改革对电信业产生了什么影响?国民经济增长和电信业发展有什么关系?电信改革对于研究国民经济增长和电信业发展之间的关系有没有影响?我们需要对电信业进行的四次政策改革进行定量评价,探讨电信业和国民经济二者之间的关系,同时探讨政策变革对研究电信业发展与国民经济增长之间关系的必要性。本文采用1978-2015年度电信业务总量和GDP数据进行实证分析。在研究方法上,采用干扰模型对我国四次电信改革进行定量评价,运用协整检验和ECM模型对两变量之间的关系进行研究,在此过程中,对协整模型是否考虑政策变量影响的必要性进行论述。经过干扰模型的建立,将电信业四次政策改革效应剥离,结果发现:1994-1998年引入竞争、政企分离对电信业发挥积极作用;1999-2001年将中国电信纵向拆分,在拆分重组的三年时间里,电信业发展较前期有所回落,但其正向作用随后展现;2002-2004年中国电信南北拆分对电信业发挥了负向作用;2008-2009年电信市场“三足鼎立”,由于市场结构发生较大变动,适应期对电信业产生负向作用,但改革红利随着时间推移逐渐释放。运用ADF方法对两变量进行单位根检验,发现电信业务总量和GDP原序列均为二阶差分平稳序列,采用E-G两步法对原序列一阶差分变量进行协整检验,对比不考虑政策影响和考虑政策影响的两个协整模型,发现考虑政策影响后的协整模型在计量模型上更具有优势,运用考虑政策影响的协整关系建立误差修正模型,探讨了两变量之间的长期均衡和短期波动关系。通过实证分析,结合经济发展趋势,我们提出如下建议:(1)重视并推进电信业在日常运营中的改革,降低改革带来的风险;(2)加大电信行业的“供给侧”改革,推动数据信息服务和能源、交通、教育等领域的共享共建;(3)积极推动电信领域混合所有制改革进程,促进电信市场有效竞争。
[Abstract]:In the age of information economy, telecommunications industry has promoted the development of various industries in the aspects of information diffusion and improving organizational efficiency, thus promoting the rapid growth of the national economy. The rapid development of information technology is also inseparable from the strong support of the national economy. Therefore, the research on the relationship between the development of telecommunications industry and the growth of the national economy has attracted the attention of many scholars. However, in different economic periods, In the process of development, various problems will appear in the telecom industry, which will affect the economic growth to a certain extent. For example, in the early stage of the development of the telecommunications industry, because of its natural monopoly position, it lacks the impetus to improve the efficiency of its own service. It can not fully meet the needs of the development of national economy; the management system of the integration of government and enterprise is not conducive to the improvement of industrial efficiency and affects the overall economic growth. Therefore, the telecommunications industry is constantly carrying out various reforms in the process of its development. With a view to the reform of the telecommunications industry can better serve the development of the national economy. So, what has the impact of the reform of the telecommunications industry on the telecommunications industry? What is the relationship between the growth of the national economy and the development of the telecommunications industry? Does the telecommunication reform have any impact on the study of the relationship between the national economic growth and the development of the telecommunications industry? We need to quantitatively evaluate the four policy reforms carried out in the telecommunications industry and explore the relationship between the telecommunications industry and the national economy. At the same time, it discusses the necessity of policy change to study the relationship between the development of telecommunication industry and the growth of national economy. This paper makes an empirical analysis on the total amount of telecommunication services and GDP data from 1978 to 2015. The interference model is used to quantitatively evaluate the fourth telecom reform in China, and the cointegration test and ECM model are used to study the relationship between the two variables. The necessity of considering the influence of policy variables on the cointegration model is discussed. Through the establishment of the interference model, the effects of four policy reforms in the telecommunications industry are separated, and it is found that the competition was introduced into the world from 1994 to 1998. The separation of government and enterprises has played an active role in the telecommunications industry. During the three years of separation and reorganization of China Telecom, the development of the telecommunications industry fell back from the previous period. However, its positive effect then shows that the North-South split of China Telecom played a negative role in the telecommunications industry from 2002-2004 to 2008-2009. Due to the great changes in market structure, the adaptation period had a negative effect on the telecommunications industry. However, the reform dividend is gradually released with the passage of time. The unit root test of the two variables is carried out by using ADF method. It is found that the total amount of telecommunication services and the original GDP sequence are both second-order differential stationary sequences. By using the E-G two-step method to test the cointegration of the first order differential variables of the original sequence, comparing the two cointegration models which do not consider the policy influence and the policy influence, it is found that the co-integration model after considering the policy influence has more advantages in the econometric model. The error correction model is established by using cointegration relation considering the influence of policy, and the long-term equilibrium and short-term fluctuation between the two variables are discussed. Through empirical analysis, combined with the economic development trend, We put forward the following suggestions: 1) attach importance to and promote the reform of the telecommunications industry in its daily operation and reduce the risks brought by the reform. (2) intensify the "supply-side" reform in the telecommunications industry, and promote data and information services, energy, and transportation. Education and other fields of sharing and co-construction) actively promote the telecommunications sector mixed ownership reform process to promote effective competition in the telecommunications market.
【学位授予单位】：北京邮电大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2017
【分类号】：F623

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