需求不确定性下移动通信消费者行为研究

发布时间：2018-05-06 12:08

本文选题：需求不确定性 + 移动通信消费者行为　；参考：《电子科技大学》2012年博士论文

【摘要】：消费者行为研究是市场营销活动的基础,对目标市场中的消费者行为的深刻理解也已成为构建竞争优势的前提条件。西方不乏消费者行为研究,美国加州大学伯克利分校的MacFadden教授更是以对消费者选择行为的研究所做出的发展和贡献获2000年诺贝尔经济学奖;香港及台湾学者比较早开始对中国消费者行为的研究;国内的消费者研究则刚刚起步。随着中国移动通信业的迅猛发展和市场竞争的加剧,各运营商每用户每月平均收入不断下降,对用户消费行为的深入了解就显得相当重要和急迫,以便实现最优定价、制定营销政策、深入挖掘客户价值。以上方面的问题也成为许多科研机构、电信市场研究者积极探讨研究的新的热点课题。本论文基于移动通信消费的非同时性、非线性定价、多业务、需求不确定性四大特点,将移动通信消费分为选择行为和使用行为,分别从宏观和微观层面的视角,对需求不确定下移动通信消费者行为的影响因素、影响程度、需求模型、弹性等进行了细致的探讨。主要研究内容和取得的创新性成果如下: 1.针对目前国内宏观层面通信需求定量研究少且未引入消费习惯因素等问题,运用动态面板模型给出一种分析中国电信移动通信需求定量研究的可行且可靠的模型,并通过实证分析得到对通信需求较为真实的估计;模型的理论分析和实证研究表明,消费习惯对移动话音需求有明显的影响,该模型引入消费习惯后,有效地还原了价格对移动话音服务需求的影响;同时,研究发现价格也是影响移动话音需求的一个重要因素,但需求对价格缺乏弹性,这与其他的研究结果有所不同,说明目前国内价格的降低已不能刺激需求同比例的增长。互补品通信工具和替代品固定本地话音服务的价格水平对移动话音服务需求的影响均不大,从结果上看,固定本地话音服务更适合视为移动话音服务的互补品。? 2.针对目前缺乏宏观层面上对移动通信不同消费群体需求研究的情况,本文采用固定效应分位数回归模型对移动话音业务不同消费群体的需求关系进行了研究,探讨各消费群体需求特征的差异并分析产生差异的原因。模型及实证研究表明:价格和收入弹性随不同消费群体有所不同;对低消费量群体,价格是最重要的影响因素,业务本身价格、通信工具价格及固定本地话音业务价格中任何一个的单一变动对其移动通信需求产生的影响都比较小;对中、高消费量群体而言,随着消费量的增加,价格敏感性有上升趋势,通信工具和固定电话的交叉价格弹性也上升。结果表明分位数回归模型比一般回归模型能够更细致更准确地描述各因素对移动话音业务消费的影响,并为正确判断移动话音市场发展阶段和制定有效的市场策略提供了一个新的工具。 3.对目前国内缺乏微观层面电信网络接入需求量化研究,相关离散选择模型在电信接入的应用研究也不多见的问题,本文根据电信资费套餐定价特点对三部定价中影响消费者选择行为的主要因素进行分析,运用多元Logit离散选择模型建立资费套餐的选择模型,分析选择的概率和弹性;利用所取得的移动公司消费者数据分析验证预期使用量和需求不确定性对选择行为的影响,并对建立的模型参数进行估计和分析。模型理论分析和实证研究表明:选取的两个变量需求不确定性和免费通话量均显著影响用户的资费选择,但影响的方向不一;且选择概率对两者的弹性都小于1。除个别值外,选择概率对免费通话量的弹性基本都小于对需求不确定性的弹性。 4.针对目前移动通信消费者使用需求研究中对样本自选择偏差和多业务关系研究很少等问题,从微观层面探讨资费选择、多业务之间相互影响等因素对消费者使用行为的影响,建立了资费套餐使用需求模型,并在此基础上进行各因素对用户业务使用量影响的实证分析,考查本地被叫通话时长、接收短信数量、免费通话量三个因素与用户本地主叫通话需求的相关性等。模型分析表明:考察的三个因素都与用户本地主叫通话需求存在较强的相关性。其中:本地被叫通话时长与用户本地主叫通话需求呈正相关趋势;用户的短信接收量对其主叫业务需求也有明显的反馈效应;免费通话量对使用行为的“约束”效果随着资费的升高也越来越明显。模型估计结果表明:模型加入修正项变量后表现良好,有效地避免了样本选择偏差;选取的用户被叫通话量、用户所接收的短信数和免费本地主叫通话量均显著影响用户的使用(本地主叫通话业务量),且三个因素与本地主叫通话业务量基本都是同向变化。 5.针对离散/连续混合需求研究传统方法的局限、目前主要采用的D/C模型在电信运用较少且未考虑多业务的情况,建立了加入移动通信消费非线性定价、多业务和需求不确定性3大特点的扩展的D/C模型,分析相应的选择概率、条件和选择及使用的弹性,最后提出模型的估计方法;模型理论研究和分析表明:一种资费的选择概率与所有资费的定价要素如固定月租费、从量价格、免费通话量都相关。多业务之间存在相关性并不影响用户的资费概率,仅对用户各业务使用量产生影响。当对两种资费进行比较时,用户会权衡选择某一资费的收益与损失;收益取决于两种资费的固定接入费,而损失则取决于用户使用量不确定性的大小以及使用量超出免费量的可能性;用户使用需求不确定性越高,其使用量超出免费量的可能性越高,从而用户更倾向于选择高免费量的套餐或包月制套餐。
[Abstract]:The study of consumer behavior is the basis of marketing activities. A profound understanding of consumer behavior in the target market has also become a prerequisite for building competitive advantages. There are no lack of consumer behavior research in the West. Professor MacFadden of the University of California at Berkeley in the United States has developed and developed the research on the behavior of the consumer. The contribution won the 2000 Nobel prize in economics; Hongkong and Taiwan scholars have begun to study Chinese consumer behavior earlier; domestic consumer research is just starting. With the rapid development of the China Mobile communication industry and the intensification of market competition, the average monthly income of each user is declining and the consumer behavior is deep. Understanding is very important and urgent in order to achieve optimal pricing, formulate marketing policies, and dig into customer value. The problems above have become a number of scientific research institutions, and the telecom market researchers actively explore new research topics.
Based on the four characteristics of non simultaneity, nonlinear pricing, multi service and demand uncertainty, this paper divides mobile communication consumption into choice behavior and use behavior. From the macro and micro perspective, the influence factors, influence degree, demand model, elasticity of mobile communication consumer behavior under the uncertainty of demand uncertainty are discussed. The main research contents and innovative achievements are as follows:
1. in view of the problem that the quantitative research of communication demand in the domestic macro level is few and the consumption habits are not introduced, the dynamic panel model is used to provide a feasible and reliable model for analyzing the quantitative research of the China Telecom mobile communication demand. The empirical study shows that consumption habits have a significant impact on mobile voice demand. After introducing consumption habits, the model effectively reduces the impact of price on the demand for mobile voice service. At the same time, the study finds that prices are also an important factor affecting the demand for mobile voice, but demand is inelastic to price, which is the result of other research results. It shows that the reduction of domestic prices can not stimulate demand in the same proportion. The price level of complementary product communication tools and substitutes for local voice service has little influence on the demand for mobile voice service. In the result, the fixed local voice service is more suitable as a complementary product of mobile voice service.
2. in view of the lack of research on the demand for different consumer groups in mobile communications at the macro level, this paper uses fixed effect quantile regression model to study the demand relationship of different consumer groups in mobile voice service, discusses the differences in demand characteristics of each consumer group and analyzes the reasons for differences. Model and empirical research It shows that price and income elasticity vary with the different consumer groups; the price is the most important factor for the low consumption population, the price of the business itself, the price of the communication tool, and the single change of any one of the fixed local voice service price are relatively small on the production of its mobile communication demand; for the middle, high consumption group, With the increase of consumption, the price sensitivity has increased, and the cross price elasticity of communication tools and fixed phones also rises. The results show that the quantile regression model can describe the effects of various factors on mobile voice service more accurately and more accurately than the general regression model, and to correctly judge the development stage of the mobile voice market. It also provides a new tool for formulating effective market strategies.
3. to the lack of quantitative research on the demand of telecom network access in China at present, the research on the application of discrete choice model in Telecom Access is not much. This paper analyzes the main factors that affect consumer choice behavior in three pricing based on the pricing characteristics of telecom tariff set, and uses the multiple Logit discrete selection model. The selection model of tariff set is set up, the probability and flexibility of selection are analyzed, and the impact of the expected usage and demand uncertainty on the selection behavior is verified by the analysis of the Mobile Corporation consumer data, and the model parameters are estimated and analyzed. The model theory analysis and empirical study show that the two variables are selected. Both the uncertainty and the free call volume significantly affect the user's tariff selection, but the direction of the impact is different; and the flexibility of the selection probability is less than 1., and the elasticity of the choice probability to the free call is less than the elasticity of the demand uncertainty.
4. in view of the lack of sample self selection deviation and multi business relationship in the research of consumer demand for mobile communication, the influence of the selection of tariff and the interaction between multiple services on the consumer behavior is discussed from the micro level, and the demand model is set up, and the factors are carried out on this basis. An empirical analysis of the impact of the user's service usage is carried out to examine the local call length, the number of messages received, the three factors of free call and the relationship between the local call demand and so on. The model analysis shows that the three factors of the investigation are all related to the needs of the local calls and calls. The time length has a positive correlation with the call demand of the user's local call, and the user's SMS reception also has a significant feedback effect on its calling service demand. The "constraint" effect of free call on the use behavior is becoming more and more obvious with the increase of the tariff. The model estimate shows that the model is good and effective after adding the modified variable. The selection deviation of sample selection is avoided; the number of selected users called call, the number of messages received by the user and the free local call call volume significantly affect the user's use (local call traffic), and the three factors are basically the same as the local calling traffic.
5. in view of the limitations of the traditional methods for the study of discrete / continuous mixed demand, the main D/C model, which is mainly used in the case of less Telecom Application and does not consider multi service, has established an extended D/C model that joins the nonlinear pricing of mobile communication consumption, multi service and demand uncertainty, and analyzes the corresponding selection probability, conditions and selection. The model theory research and analysis show that the selection probability of a kind of tariff is related to all the pricing factors such as fixed monthly rent, quantity price and free call volume. Life impact. When comparing two kinds of tariff, the user will weigh the income and loss of a certain tariff, and the income depends on the fixed access fee of two kinds of tariff, and the loss depends on the uncertainty of the user's usage and the possibility that the amount of use is beyond the free amount; the higher the user's demand is, the higher the user's use is, the use of the user is beyond the use. The higher the probability of free volume, the more inclined users to choose high free packages or monthly packages.

【学位授予单位】：电子科技大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F274;F626

【参考文献】