我国电信业的发展及其对经济的影响

发布时间：2018-05-26 00:50

本文选题：因子分析 + 面板数据　；参考：《中南大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：20世纪90年代以来,中国电信产业发展举世瞩目,截至2010年底固定电话和移动电话用户总数突破11亿。作为国民经济的基础产业,我国电信业在时间和空间方面的发展怎样,以及其对经济的影响又怎样,本文主要对这两个方面进行量化分析。首先,进行纵向分析,对我国电信业2003年到2010年8年间的发展情况进行因子分析,并对各年份进行排序。结果显示,综合得分和因子一(移话因子)得分都逐年增大,说明随年份呈现稳健向上发展的趋势,总体水平在不断提高。但因子二(固话因子)得分从2008年开始情况出现反常,出现下降趋势。一方面可能受2008年金融危机的影响,业务量有所波动,另一方面因为近些年移动电话和互联网的发展迅猛,抢占了市场,使固话市场受到严重冲击。接着,进行横向分析,对我国31个省市2010年的年度数据进行因子分析并对各省市进行排序,综合评分最高的是广东省、江苏省、浙江省,这三个省地处东南沿海经济发达地区,电信需求大,电信业综合实力非常强。排名相对靠后的三个省市分别为青海、宁夏、西藏。北京、上海、天津三省市因子二(服务水平因子)的得分非常高,居于前三位,说明这三个地方的电信服务水平非常高。最后,运用面板数据模型来研究我国各省市电信业对经济的影响。结果表明我国各省市电信业与经济发展之间都存在协整关系,并且都是显著正相关,电信业务量的增加都会带动GDP的增加,但不同的省市又存在差异。
[Abstract]:Since the 1990s, China's telecommunications industry has attracted worldwide attention. By the end of 2010, the total number of fixed and mobile phone subscribers had exceeded 1.1 billion. As the basic industry of the national economy, what is the development of the telecom industry in time and space, and what is its influence on the economy? this paper mainly analyzes these two aspects quantitatively. First of all, it carries on the longitudinal analysis, carries on the factor analysis to our country telecommunication industry development situation from 2003 to 2010 eight years, and carries on the ranking to each year. The results show that the comprehensive score and the factor one (shift factor) score are increasing year by year, which indicates that the overall level is improving continuously with the trend of steady and upward development in the year. But factor two (fixed-line factor) score from 2008 began to appear abnormal, a downward trend. On the one hand, due to the financial crisis in 2008, the volume of business fluctuated, on the other hand, the rapid development of mobile phones and the Internet in recent years, seized the market, so the fixed-line market suffered a serious impact. Then, through horizontal analysis, the annual data of 31 provinces and cities in our country in 2010 are analyzed by factor analysis and sorted out. The highest comprehensive scores are Guangdong Province, Jiangsu Province, and Zhejiang Province, which are located in the economically developed areas along the southeast coast. Telecommunications demand is large, telecommunications industry comprehensive strength is very strong. Qinghai, Ningxia and Tibet are the top three provinces. Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin scored very high in factor two (service level factor), ranking in the top three, indicating that the telecommunications service level in these three places is very high. Finally, the panel data model is used to study the impact of telecom industry in provinces and cities on the economy. The results show that there is a cointegration relationship between telecom industry and economic development in various provinces and cities in China, and all of them are significantly positive correlation. The increase of telecom business will lead to the increase of GDP, but there are differences between different provinces and cities.
【学位授予单位】：中南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F224;F626

【参考文献】