“中国移动”消费者剩余实证分析

发布时间：2018-06-10 08:46

本文选题：新产品 + 消费者剩余　；参考：《西南财经大学》2012年硕士论文

【摘要】：精确地计算消费者福利,是制定合理的产业政策和规制政策的基础,本文基于“中国移动”(指中国移动通信集团公司,下同)的数据,采用福利经济学的经济理论,以Hausman(1981)提出的消费者剩余计算方法为基础,定量分析了“中国移动”通信对社会总福利的贡献,以此为政府制定产业政策和规制政策提供实证支持。对于中国电信市场的消费者剩余问题,国内已有文献主要基于马歇尔需求函数进行实证研究,尚缺乏基于Hicks需求函数的相关研究,且尚无研究针对移动通信行业。本论文期望在此方面进行一些有益的尝试。消费者剩余是福利经济学的基本概念之一。消费者剩余的测算有基于希克斯的需求函数和马歇尔需求函数二种方式,其中" Hicks消费者剩余”被理论经济学家普遍认为是消费者剩余的更精确的度量。当消费者收入边际效用不变时,"Marshall消费者剩余”才与通过Hicks需求函数得到的“补偿变化”相等(Marshall,1961).因为Hicks需求函数是效用相等条件下的需求函数,也就是说需求量是效用和价格的函数。马歇尔需求函数是等收入条件下的需求函数,跟效用无关(效用的单调变换不改变偏好选择)’。‘'Hicks消费者剩余”不易直接估计,但Hausman(1981)为解决"Hicks消费者剩余”的估计问题做出了开创性贡献。本论文拟根据Hausman的分析方法采用Hicks需求函数来估计消费者剩余。 Hausman(1981)的研究思路是用观察到的市场需求曲线推导未观察到的补偿需求曲线,从而计算出精确的消费者剩余。即从Marshall市场需求曲线推导出相应的间接效用函数,进而得到补偿变动量、等价变动量和无谓损失的精确计算。为此,本文以“中国移动”为具体研究对象,采用“中国移动”1999Q1-2009Q1的季度时间序列数据：包括“中国移动”移动电话用户数,“中国移动”移动电话每个用户平均花费数,全国城镇居民人均可支配收入。为避免不平稳的时间序列数据可能会导致的虚假回归问题以致无法直接用传统的OLS方法估计,本文采用Engle与Granger(1987)提出的协整理论和方法进行处理,并在此基础上估计出“中国移动”的常弹性需求函数。本文得到了以下实证结论：第一,“中国移动”移动电话用户数,“中国移动”移动电话每个用户平均花费数,全国城镇居民人均可支配收入,几个因素之间存在协整,具有长期稳定关系。第二,移动通信对中国经济发展具有重要意义,其消费对国民收入的长期弹性为1.24,对价格的长期弹性为-1.08。第三,在2002Q1-2008Q4期间,“中国移动”电话市场的消费者福利总共增长了六千亿元人民币,平均每年增长八百亿元人民币,“中国移动”市场的消费者福利一直保持持续增长的过程。说明“中国移动”的消费者福利对我国移动通信市场消费者福利的增长具有重大贡献,对中国电信市场的消费者福利增长也具有真正意义。第四,由于长期弹性大于1,说明需求量的变动比例大于价格,如果价格上涨,消费者剩余减少,如果价格下降,社会总收益会增加。研究结果对于理解我国移动通信运营商的竞争格局有重要意义,随着3G时代的到来,中国电信市场的竞争更加激烈,竞争格局发生了变化,“中国移动”在3G时代的表现不如2G时代,而“中国联通”和“中国电信”在3G时代都取得不错的成绩,已经形成了三足鼎立的竞争格局。这一变化影响了消费者的福利状况,而在社会总福利计算中,消费者剩余处于根本的位置。从实证结论来看,“中国移动”的运营确实增加了消费者的福利水平,并且影响是明显的。由于中国移动拥有的移动电话数占我国移动电话总量的70%左右,占我国电话主线用户数(指移动电话用户数与固定电话用户数总和)50%以上,“中国移动”带来的消费者福利量依然是我国移动通信,甚至是中国电信行业福利量的大部分。本文测算结果表明,电信行业是可以显著提升人民群众的福利水平的行业,对国民经济的发展具有重要影响。近年来,中国经济发展速度加快,特别是第三产业发展迅速,电信行业由迅猛扩张进入到平稳发展的阶段。政府应该重视并支持该行业的发展,完善相关制度和法律来保证该行业健康发展。如效仿印度政府与行业合作2,2011年印度政府、监管部门与移动行业合作推动了印度移动通信行业的发展。本文测算的样本(1999-2009)大部分时期,我国移动行业只存在两家运营商,有文献3显示我国移动通信行业是双寡头竞争模型,竞争不充分。在竞争结构不合理的时期,由于需求旺盛,经本文测算,消费者剩余仍然非常可观。可见,如果政府积极重视中国电信市场的竞争格局,促进电信市场的有效竞争,实现资源优化配置,福利增加会更加显著。目前由于移动通信行业竞争主体少,单个运营商所占的市场份额很大,有很强的作价能力,因此运营商往往会将价格定在远远高于边际成本的位置,损害消费者利益。并且,一些运营商对某些业务市场拥有绝对的控制能力,他们可能会运用市场力量排斥竞争对手,进行不公平竞争。移动通信领域具有广阔的市场成长空间,还应增加一定数目的运营商。放松行业的进入管制,允许民营资本进入移动通信市场,增加市场竞争程度。本文实证表明,价格对“中国移动”消费量的影响是显著的,价格弹性的绝对值超过了1(1.08),即价格下降,消费者消费量上升更加显著,表明降低“中国移动”的价格可以提高消费者的福利水平。政府应出台合理措施整顿电信市场的价格竞争秩序,使得我国移动通信价格维持在合理水平,保护消费者福利。
[Abstract]:Accurate calculation of consumer welfare is the basis for formulating reasonable industrial and regulatory policies. Based on the data of "China Mobile" (referring to the Chellona Mobile Communications Corporation Cmcc, the same below), this paper uses the economic theory of welfare economics, based on the method of consumer surplus calculation proposed by Hausman (1981), and quantitative analysis of "China Mobile" The contribution of communication to the general welfare of the society provides empirical support for the government to formulate industrial policies and regulation policies. For the consumer surplus of the China Telecom market, the domestic literature is mainly based on the Marshall demand function, and there is still a lack of relevant research based on the Hicks demand function, and there is no research aimed at the movement. Communication industry. This paper hopes to make some useful attempts in this respect.
Consumer surplus is one of the basic concepts of welfare economics. The measurement of consumer surplus is based on two methods based on Hicks's demand function and Marshall demand function, of which "Hicks consumer surplus" is generally considered to be the more accurate degree of consumer surplus by theoretical economists. When the marginal utility of consumer income is unchanged, "Marsh The all consumer surplus is equal to the "compensation change" obtained through the Hicks demand function (Marshall, 1961). Because the Hicks demand function is the demand function under the condition of utility equality, that is, the demand is a function of utility and price. The Marshall demand function is the demand function under the equal income bar, which is independent of utility (the utility's single). The'Hicks consumer surplus is not easy to estimate directly, but Hausman (1981) has made a pioneering contribution to the estimation of "Hicks consumer surplus". This paper is to use the Hicks demand function to estimate the remainder of the consumer based on the Hausman analysis method.
The research idea of Hausman (1981) is to deduce the unobserved compensation demand curve by using the observed market demand curve and calculate the exact consumer surplus. That is to derive the corresponding indirect utility function from the Marshall market demand curve, and then get the exact calculation of the compensation variable momentum, the equal price variable momentum and the meaningless loss. The article uses "China Mobile" as the specific research object, using the quarterly time series data of "China Mobile" 1999Q1-2009Q1: including the number of "China Mobile" mobile phone users, the average cost per user of the "China Mobile" mobile phone per user, and the per capita income of urban residents in the country. To avoid the unstable time series data, The false regression problem can be caused so that it can not be estimated directly by the traditional OLS method. This paper deals with the cointegration theory and method proposed by Engle and Granger (1987). On this basis, the constant elastic demand function of "China Mobile" is estimated.
This paper obtains the following empirical conclusions: first, the number of "China Mobile" mobile phone users, the average cost per user of "China Mobile" mobile phone, the per capita disposable income of urban residents in the country, the existence of co integration between several factors and long-term stability. Second, mobile communication is of great significance to the economic development of China, The long-term elasticity of consumption to national income is 1.24, the long-term elasticity to the price is -1.08. third. During the period of 2002Q1-2008Q4, the consumer welfare of the "China Mobile" telephone market increased by six hundred billion yuan in total, with an average annual growth of eighty billion yuan RMB. The consumer welfare of the "China Mobile" market continued to grow. It shows that the consumer welfare of "China Mobile" has a significant contribution to the growth of consumer welfare in the mobile communication market in China, and also has a real significance for the growth of consumer welfare in the China Telecom market. Fourth, as long term elasticity is greater than 1, the change of demand is larger than the price, if the price increases, consumer surplus If the price falls, the total social income will increase.
The research results are of great significance to understanding the competitive pattern of the mobile telecom operators in China. With the arrival of the 3G era, the competition of the China Telecom market is more intense and the competition pattern has changed. "China Mobile" in the 3G era is not as good as the 2G era, and the "China Unicom" and "China Telecom" have been good in the era of 3G. The results have formed a tripartite competitive pattern. This change affects the welfare of the consumer, and in the total social welfare calculation, the consumer surplus is in the fundamental position.
From the empirical conclusion, the operation of "China Mobile" does increase the level of consumer welfare, and the impact is obvious. Because the number of mobile phones owned by China Mobile accounts for about 70% of the total number of mobile phones in China, accounting for more than 50% of the number of main line users in China (the number of mobile phones and the total number of fixed phone users), " The consumer welfare brought by the movement of the country is still the majority of the welfare of China's mobile communications and even the China Telecom industry. The results show that the telecommunications industry is an industry that can significantly improve the welfare level of the people and has an important impact on the development of the national economy. In recent years, China's economic development has accelerated, and the development of China's economy has accelerated. The third industry has developed rapidly and the telecommunications industry has expanded from rapid expansion into the stage of smooth development. The government should attach importance to and support the development of the industry, improve the relevant systems and laws to ensure the healthy development of the industry. For example, the government of the India government and the industry for 22011 years, the cooperation of the regulatory department and the mobile industry has promoted India. The development of the mobile communications industry.
In most period of the sample (1999-2009), there are only two operators in the mobile industry in China. There are 3 documents showing that China's mobile communication industry is a dual oligopoly competition model, and the competition is not sufficient. In the period of unreasonable competition structure, due to the strong demand, the surplus of consumers is still very considerable. The competition pattern of the China Telecom market is paid great attention to, the effective competition of the telecom market is promoted, the optimal allocation of resources is realized, and the increase of welfare will be more significant. At present, the market share of the individual operators is very large and has a strong price ability because of the few competitors in the mobile communications industry, so the operators tend to set the price far above the edge. The location of the cost is damaging the interests of the consumer. And some operators have absolute control over some business markets. They may use market forces to exclude competitors and engage in unfair competition. There is a broad market for market growth in the field of mobile communications, and a certain number of operators should be added to relax the entry management of the industry. The system allows private capital to enter the mobile communications market and increase market competition.
The empirical evidence shows that the price has a significant impact on the consumption of "China Mobile", the absolute value of the price elasticity exceeds 1 (1.08), that is, the price drop and the increase of consumer consumption are more significant. It shows that the price of "China Mobile" can improve the welfare level of consumers. The government should introduce reasonable measures to rectify the price of the telecom market. The order of competition has kept the price of mobile communication at a reasonable level and protected the welfare of consumers.
【学位授予单位】：西南财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2012
【分类号】：F626;F274;F224

【参考文献】