有限理性的电信套餐消费者选择行为分析与预测研究
发布时间：2019-07-08 13:02
【摘要】：随着新一轮电信(Telecom)改革与重组的完成,中国的通信电信市场形成了中国移动、中国联通和中国电信三大全业务运营商共同竞争的新格局。电信市场竞争的日趋激烈,迫使电信运营商的运营模式正在逐渐从以产品为中心转变为以消费者为中心。如何有效地分析和预测消费者的选择行为对于电信运营商的发展起到至关重要的作用。为了在竞争激烈的市场中吸引更多的消费者,电信运营商推出了很多电信产品。在众多的电信产品中,手机移动电信套餐是最重要的一种产品形式。不同消费者对电信业务的需求不一样,消费能力也不同,于是三大电信运营商就需要针对不同的消费群体推出不同的移动套餐。对电信套餐消费者选择行为的深入了解,对于电信运营商实现套餐最优定价、有目标的推介套餐、最大程度的获取消费者价值等具有重要的指导意义。在现实生活中,由于信息的不完全或者说信息的不对称使得电信消费者在选择套餐时不能做出完全理性的判断。有鉴于此,本文基于前景理论及其推广参考依赖模型改进了传统的离散选择模型,分析和预测有限理性的电信消费者个体选择套餐的行为。本文的主要工作包括：(1)对前景理论及相关基础理论和电信行业的研究现状进行了系统地综述。首先对前景理论及相关基础理论进行了概述,包括有限理性、前景理论及其参考依赖模型等,并对这些基础理论的研究现状分别从理论研究现状和应用研究现状进行了综述,为后续研究的问题奠定了坚实的理论基础。其次,对电信行业的相关研究现状进行了综述,包括电信行业的发展历程、电信套餐的相关知识及电信消费者的行为研究现状等内容,为以后的理论研究提供了充足的背景材料。(2)从定性和定量的角度分析了电信套餐消费者的选择行为。在消费者行为相关理论的基础上,分析了电信套餐消费者的选择行为和影响消费者选择电信套餐的因素。设计了针对大学生群体套餐选择情况进行的调查问卷,并通过纸质和网络调查方式获得了大量数据,为后续的研究工作提供了实际的数据来源,最后基于问卷对电信套餐消费者的选择行为进行了定量分析。(3)有限理性的电信套餐消费者选择行为分析。基于前景理论研究了有限理性的电信套餐消费者选择行为,并与基于期望效用理论的完全理性消费者的选择行为进行了比较,结果表明基于前景理论方法得到的结果与实证研究得到的结果一致。同时,由于参考点设定是前景理论中非常重要的研究内容之一,又提出了基于期望消费最小的参考点设定方法,并基于新的参考点分析了电信套餐消费者的选择行为,结果同样验证了电信消费者在选择套餐时的有限理性的合理性。(4)基于改进前后的多项logit模型预测电信套餐消费者的选择行为。在概述离散选择模型的基础上,利用传统的多项logit模型预测了消费者的套餐选择行为。针对传统多项logit模型不能预测有限理性消费者的选择行为的缺陷,基于参考依赖模型改进了多项logit模型,建立了有限理性的电信套餐消费者选择行为的预测方法。将利用改进前后的多项logit模型对多个运营商的实际消费数据进行预测,并进行对比分析,验证了改进后模型的有效性,并得到了一些有价值的结论。(5)基于改进前后的嵌套logit模型预测电信套餐消费者的选择行为。由于多项logit模型存在缺陷,最明显的就是“不相关选项间的独立性”(Independence from Irrelevant Alternatives, ⅡA)的特性,此特性隐含引入新的套餐会对其他套餐产生相同的影响,极可能导致预测结果的不准确。而嵌套logit模型能够避免在多项logit模型中存在的ⅡA缺陷,于是利用嵌套logit模型对消费者的套餐选择行为进行预测。针对传统的嵌套logit模型同样不能预测有限理性消费者选择行为的缺陷,基于参考依赖模型对嵌套logit模型进行了改进,建立了有限理性电信套餐消费者选择行为的预测方法。将利用改进前后的嵌套logit模型对多个不同运营商的消费者实际消费数据进行预测,并进行对比分析,验证了改进后模型的有效性,并得到了一些有借鉴意义的结论。
文内图片：
图片说明：图１．３邋２０１１－２０１２年我国兰大运营商移动用户较上月净增数量１３］逡逑
[Abstract]:With the completion of the new telecommunications (Telecom) reform and reorganization, China's telecommunications market has formed a new pattern of co-competition with China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom. The competition in the telecom market is becoming more and more fierce, forcing the operation mode of the telecom operator to shift from the product-centric to the consumer-centered. How to effectively analyze and predict the consumer's choice behavior plays an important role in the development of the telecom operator. In order to attract more consumers in a competitive market, the telecom operator has launched a number of telecommunications products. The mobile telecommunication package of mobile phone is one of the most important products in many telecommunication products. Different consumers' demand for telecommunication services is different, and the consumption ability is different, so the three major telecom operators need to launch different mobile packages for different consumption groups. The deep understanding of the choice behavior of the telecom package consumers has important guiding significance for the telecom operators to realize the optimal pricing of the package, the targeted promotion package, the maximum value of the acquisition of the consumer value, and the like. In real life, due to the incomplete information of the information or the asymmetry of the information, the telecom consumer can not make full rational judgment when choosing the package. In view of this, the paper improves the traditional discrete selection model based on the foreground theory and the generalized reference-dependent model, and analyzes and predicts the behavior of the individual selection package of the telecom consumers with limited rationality. The main work of this paper includes: (1) a systematic review of the prospect theory and the relevant basic theory and the research status of the telecom industry. Firstly, the prospect theory and the relevant basic theory are summarized, including the limited reason, the prospect theory and the reference-dependent model, and the research status of these basic theories is reviewed from the current situation of the theory research and the application research status, respectively. And lays a solid theoretical foundation for the problem of follow-up research. Secondly, the present situation of the relevant research in the telecommunication industry is reviewed, including the development course of the telecom industry, the relevant knowledge of the telecom package and the current situation of the behavior of the telecom consumers, and provides sufficient background material for future theoretical research. (2) The choice behavior of the consumer of the telecom package is analyzed from the qualitative and quantitative point of view. On the basis of consumer behavior-related theory, the choice behavior of the consumer of the telecom package and the factors that affect the consumer's selection of the telecom package are analyzed. The questionnaire is designed for the selection of the group package of the college students, and a large amount of data is obtained through the paper and the network investigation methods, and the actual data source is provided for the follow-up research work, and the selection behavior of the consumer of the telecommunication package is analyzed quantitatively based on the questionnaire. (3) The consumer choice behavior analysis of the limited reason. Based on the prospect theory, the choice behavior of the consumer of the telecom package is studied and compared with the choice behavior of the fully rational consumers based on the expected utility theory. The results show that the result obtained by the method of the prospect theory is consistent with the results obtained by the empirical research. At the same time, because the reference point setting is one of the most important research contents in the foreground theory, the method of setting the reference point based on the minimum expectation consumption is put forward, and the selection behavior of the consumer of the telecommunication package is analyzed based on the new reference point, The results also verify the rationality of the limited reason of the telecom consumers in the selection of the package. And (4) predicting the selection behavior of the telecom package consumers based on the multiple logit models before and after the improvement. On the basis of summarizing the discrete selection model, the traditional multiple logit model is used to predict the behavior of the consumer's package selection. Aiming at the defect that the traditional multiple logit model can not predict the selection behavior of the limited rational consumers, the multiple logit models are improved based on the reference-dependent model, and the method for predicting the selection behavior of the consumer of the telecom package with limited rationality is established. The actual consumption data of a plurality of operators is predicted by using a plurality of logit models before and after the improvement, and the comparison analysis is carried out, and the effectiveness of the improved model is verified, and some valuable conclusions are obtained. And (5) predicting the selection behavior of the telecom package consumers based on the nested logit model before and after the improvement. Because of the defects of many logit models, the most obvious is the characteristics of the "Independence between irrelevant options" from Irrelevant Alternative (II A), which implies that the introduction of a new package will have the same effect on other packages, which may lead to inaccurate prediction results. The nested logit model can avoid the 鈪 defects existing in many logit models, and then use the nested logit model to forecast the behavior of the package selection of the consumer. For the traditional nested logit model, the defect of the limited rational consumer selection behavior cannot be predicted, and the nested logit model is improved based on the reference-dependent model, and the prediction method of the consumer selection behavior of the limited rational telecommunication package is established. By using the nested logit model before and after the improvement, the actual consumption data of the consumers of a plurality of different operators is predicted, and the comparison analysis is carried out, and the effectiveness of the improved model is verified, and some valuable conclusions are obtained.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F626;F274
本文编号：2511603
文内图片：
图片说明：图１．３邋２０１１－２０１２年我国兰大运营商移动用户较上月净增数量１３］逡逑
[Abstract]:With the completion of the new telecommunications (Telecom) reform and reorganization, China's telecommunications market has formed a new pattern of co-competition with China Mobile, China Unicom and China Telecom. The competition in the telecom market is becoming more and more fierce, forcing the operation mode of the telecom operator to shift from the product-centric to the consumer-centered. How to effectively analyze and predict the consumer's choice behavior plays an important role in the development of the telecom operator. In order to attract more consumers in a competitive market, the telecom operator has launched a number of telecommunications products. The mobile telecommunication package of mobile phone is one of the most important products in many telecommunication products. Different consumers' demand for telecommunication services is different, and the consumption ability is different, so the three major telecom operators need to launch different mobile packages for different consumption groups. The deep understanding of the choice behavior of the telecom package consumers has important guiding significance for the telecom operators to realize the optimal pricing of the package, the targeted promotion package, the maximum value of the acquisition of the consumer value, and the like. In real life, due to the incomplete information of the information or the asymmetry of the information, the telecom consumer can not make full rational judgment when choosing the package. In view of this, the paper improves the traditional discrete selection model based on the foreground theory and the generalized reference-dependent model, and analyzes and predicts the behavior of the individual selection package of the telecom consumers with limited rationality. The main work of this paper includes: (1) a systematic review of the prospect theory and the relevant basic theory and the research status of the telecom industry. Firstly, the prospect theory and the relevant basic theory are summarized, including the limited reason, the prospect theory and the reference-dependent model, and the research status of these basic theories is reviewed from the current situation of the theory research and the application research status, respectively. And lays a solid theoretical foundation for the problem of follow-up research. Secondly, the present situation of the relevant research in the telecommunication industry is reviewed, including the development course of the telecom industry, the relevant knowledge of the telecom package and the current situation of the behavior of the telecom consumers, and provides sufficient background material for future theoretical research. (2) The choice behavior of the consumer of the telecom package is analyzed from the qualitative and quantitative point of view. On the basis of consumer behavior-related theory, the choice behavior of the consumer of the telecom package and the factors that affect the consumer's selection of the telecom package are analyzed. The questionnaire is designed for the selection of the group package of the college students, and a large amount of data is obtained through the paper and the network investigation methods, and the actual data source is provided for the follow-up research work, and the selection behavior of the consumer of the telecommunication package is analyzed quantitatively based on the questionnaire. (3) The consumer choice behavior analysis of the limited reason. Based on the prospect theory, the choice behavior of the consumer of the telecom package is studied and compared with the choice behavior of the fully rational consumers based on the expected utility theory. The results show that the result obtained by the method of the prospect theory is consistent with the results obtained by the empirical research. At the same time, because the reference point setting is one of the most important research contents in the foreground theory, the method of setting the reference point based on the minimum expectation consumption is put forward, and the selection behavior of the consumer of the telecommunication package is analyzed based on the new reference point, The results also verify the rationality of the limited reason of the telecom consumers in the selection of the package. And (4) predicting the selection behavior of the telecom package consumers based on the multiple logit models before and after the improvement. On the basis of summarizing the discrete selection model, the traditional multiple logit model is used to predict the behavior of the consumer's package selection. Aiming at the defect that the traditional multiple logit model can not predict the selection behavior of the limited rational consumers, the multiple logit models are improved based on the reference-dependent model, and the method for predicting the selection behavior of the consumer of the telecom package with limited rationality is established. The actual consumption data of a plurality of operators is predicted by using a plurality of logit models before and after the improvement, and the comparison analysis is carried out, and the effectiveness of the improved model is verified, and some valuable conclusions are obtained. And (5) predicting the selection behavior of the telecom package consumers based on the nested logit model before and after the improvement. Because of the defects of many logit models, the most obvious is the characteristics of the "Independence between irrelevant options" from Irrelevant Alternative (II A), which implies that the introduction of a new package will have the same effect on other packages, which may lead to inaccurate prediction results. The nested logit model can avoid the 鈪 defects existing in many logit models, and then use the nested logit model to forecast the behavior of the package selection of the consumer. For the traditional nested logit model, the defect of the limited rational consumer selection behavior cannot be predicted, and the nested logit model is improved based on the reference-dependent model, and the prediction method of the consumer selection behavior of the limited rational telecommunication package is established. By using the nested logit model before and after the improvement, the actual consumption data of the consumers of a plurality of different operators is predicted, and the comparison analysis is carried out, and the effectiveness of the improved model is verified, and some valuable conclusions are obtained.
【学位授予单位】：东北大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F626;F274
【参考文献】
相关期刊论文 前10条
1 李如琦;唐林权;凌武能;李芝荣;王维志;;基于前景理论和灰关联分析法的黑启动方案优选[J];电力系统保护与控制;2013年05期
2 李如琦;唐林权;凌武能;李芝荣;王维志;;基于云理论和前景理论的变压器状态维修风险决策[J];电力自动化设备;2013年02期
3 张晓;樊治平;;基于前景理论的风险型混合多属性决策方法[J];系统工程学报;2012年06期
4 李鹏;刘思峰;朱建军;;基于前景理论的随机直觉模糊决策方法[J];控制与决策;2012年11期
5 李晓伟;陈红;周继彪;尹毫企;李志平;;基于累积前景理论的城市公交线网灰关联优化[J];西安建筑科技大学学报(自然科学版);2012年04期
6 周国华;张羽;李延来;赵国堂;;基于前景理论的施工安全管理行为演化博弈[J];系统管理学报;2012年04期
7 张晓;樊治平;;一种基于前景理论的风险型区间多属性决策方法[J];运筹与管理;2012年03期
8 陈艳;刘欣远;;前景理论的职务舞弊行为决策[J];北京理工大学学报(社会科学版);2012年03期
9 樊治平;刘洋;沈荣鉴;;基于前景理论的突发事件应急响应的风险决策方法[J];系统工程理论与实践;2012年05期
10 马健;孙秀霞;郭创;;基于风险-效益比和前景理论的风险性多属性决策方法[J];系统工程与电子技术;2011年11期
相关博士学位论文 前3条
1 徐红利;基于有限理性的城市交通系统均衡与拥挤收费策略研究[D];南京大学;2011年
2 梅虎;航空旅客选择行为及其在收益管理中的应用研究[D];南京航空航天大学;2007年
3 彭继红;中国电信运营企业核心竞争力研究[D];北京邮电大学;2007年
相关硕士学位论文 前5条
1 邹萍;3G时代电信运营商市场营销策略模型设计与实现[D];北京交通大学;2009年
2 张奇瑞;基于前景理论的交通诱导行为分析与仿真实验研究[D];北京交通大学;2008年
3 林琴;基于OLAP和数据挖掘的电信客户消费行为分析[D];中南林业科技大学;2007年
4 谢萌;关于我国移动电信资费套餐制定的研究[D];南京航空航天大学;2007年
5 金宝辉;交通出行行为分析[D];西南交通大学;2004年
，本文编号：2511603
本文链接：https://www.wllwen.com/jingjilunwen/xxjj/2511603.html
