发展中大国城市化与经济增长关系的实证分析

发布时间：2017-12-31 11:25

本文关键词：发展中大国城市化与经济增长关系的实证分析　出处：《海南大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：城市化是经济增长过程中的一个必然产物,越来越多的经济学家意识到城市化与经济增长之间的联系是密切且相互作用、相辅相成的,即经济增长过程中会伴随着城市化水平的上升,城市化水平的上升反过来对经济增长起促进作用,而且,城市化还可以以人力资本、物质资本、知识资本和经济结构等因素作为介质,间接对经济增长产生影响。目前,发达国家已基本完成城市化的发展,而发展中国家特别是中国,正处于城市化加速发展阶段,因此,本文通过实证分析,深入探讨城市化与经济增长关系的相互作用机制,对于城市化水平的提高和经济增长的意义是十分重要的。本文通过借鉴现有的理论和实证研究成果,利用实证分析法和规范分析法,较为系统、全面地分析了发展中大国城市化与经济增长之间的相互作用机制,重点研究了城市化对经济增长的影响机制,同时提出了在城市化加速发展阶段,如何有效提高城市化水平的同时还能促进经济的可持续增长。本文的主要研究内容有以下几个方面：第一,在已有的理论研究基础之上,提出了探讨城市化对经济增长影响机制的论题,并通过协整检验,对11个国家的城市化与经济增长的协整关系进行了检验,得出城市化与经济增长之间存在长期均衡关系。第二,在协整检验的基础上,依托面板数据模型,以11个国家的GDP为因变量,城市化率、外贸依存度、服务业比值、农业比值、居民最终消费支出、资本形成总额、劳动力总人数和高等教育入学率这8个变量为自变量,建立面板数据模型,估计结果显示,居民最终消费支出弹性最大,城市化率排在居民最终消费支出之后,说明城市化对经济增长有直接的影响。第三,在本文的第四部分,通过构建多层统计模型,即以劳动力总人数和资本形成总额为自变量,以GDP为因变量的层一方程和以城市化率为主要的自变量的层二方程,对城市化对经济增长的影响进行分析,结果显示城市化只有与高等教育入学率一起,才能通过劳动力总人数这一变量间接对经济增长产生影响,单一城市化不能通过劳动力总人数和资本形成总额间接影响经济增长。在分析过程,还发现了居民最终消费支出是经济增长在各个国家间存在差异的重要原因。最后,本文对协整检验、面板数据模型和多层统计模型的结果进行了总结分析,依据实证分析结果提出了在城市化发展过程中,如何更好的发展城市化与如何让经济长久可持续的发展的政策建议。
[Abstract]:The city is an inevitable product in the process of economic growth, more and more economists realized between the city and the economic growth is closely connected with the interaction, complement each other, namely in the process of economic growth will be accompanied by a rise in the city level, city level rise in turn to promote economic growth, and city, but also to human capital, material capital, knowledge capital and economic structure factors such as medium, indirect impact on economic growth. At present, the development of the city has been basically completed in developed countries and developing countries, especially China, is at a stage of accelerated development of the city, therefore, through empirical analysis, in-depth study the interaction mechanism between city and economic growth, to improve the city level and economic growth is of great importance.
Based on theoretical and empirical analysis of existing research results, using empirical analysis and normative analysis, systematic and comprehensive analysis of the interaction mechanism between big city development and economic growth, focusing on the city of influence economic growth, at the same time put forward the stage of accelerated development in the city, how to effectively improve the city level but also to promote sustainable economic growth.
The main contents of this paper are as follows:
First, on the basis of the existing theoretical research, put forward to explore the city of influence economic growth issues, and through the cointegration test, the relationship between the city and the economic growth of 11 countries of the association of inspection, has long-term equilibrium relationship between the city and the economic growth.
Second, based on the cointegration test, based on the panel data model, the dependent variable in the GDP of the 11 countries, the rate of city, the degree of dependence on foreign trade, service industry ratio, the ratio of agricultural, household final consumption expenditure, gross capital formation, total number of labor and higher education enrollment rate of these 8 variables as independent variables. The establishment of panel data model, the estimation results show that household final consumption expenditure elasticity is the biggest city, ranked in the rate of household final consumption expenditure, the city has a direct impact on economic growth.
Third, in the fourth part of this paper, by constructing a multilayer statistical model, with the total number of labor and total capital formation as independent variables, the dependent variable layer equation and the city rate as the main variables of the layer two equation with GDP, the city of impact on economic growth through the analysis of the results shows that the city of only with the higher education enrollment rate, the total number of labor can through the variable indirect impacts on economic growth, a single city can not by the total number of labor and total capital formation indirectly affects economic growth. In the analysis process, also found that the household final consumption expenditure is the economic growth is an important reason for differences in every country.
Finally, we summarize and analyze the results of cointegration test, panel data model and multilevel statistical model. Based on the results of empirical analysis, we put forward policy recommendations on how to better develop urbanization and how to make the economy sustainable and sustainable in the process of urbanization.

【学位授予单位】：海南大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.11;F112.1

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