北京市流动人口对经济增长影响的实证研究

发布时间：2018-01-01 17:01

本文关键词：北京市流动人口对经济增长影响的实证研究　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：人口流动作为一种特定的人口现象，一直备受各领域学者的关注。现在我国经济和社会发展正处于关键时期，经济增长方式的转变和经济结构的调整，都使得流动人口问题牵动社会的每根神经。尤其是在北京这样的大都市，流动人口所带来的影响更加明显，，也更显重要。经过几十年的发展，北京的流动人口发生了巨大变化，出现了很多重要的新特征。流动人口对经济的影响，是北京实现经济增长方式根本转变和保持经济社会稳定健康持续发展所必须要解决的重大问题。本文将试图引入经济学方法探讨流动人口对经济贡献的量化分析。本文试图分析北京市流动人口对经济增长的影响，为了实现这个目标，首先对人口流动和经济增长的基本理论和国内外相关研究文献进行述评，然后具体分析北京市流动人口和经济发展的现状，采取定性与定量相结合的方法分析流动人口对经济发展的影响，最后总结研究结论并提出积极发挥北京市流动人口对经济的正效应的政策建议。具体来看，本文可以分为六大部分，第一部分为导言，导言又包括五个小部分，他们是：本研究的背景怎样，本研究的目的和意义为何，本研究采用的思路和方法，概念界定，本论文可能的重点、难点和创新点。第二部分为相关理论和文献综述，在介绍相关理论时，笔者将具有代表性的马克思主义人口流动理论、发展经济学的传统模型、新劳动力迁移经济学理论进行了简单介绍，而在文献综述部分，并不是将所有有关人口流动的研究成果简单罗列，而是选择了与本文相关的研究人口流动对经济发展影响的重要观点整理。第三部分为北京市流动人口和经济发展现状的描述，在北京流动人口现状部分，从流动人口地区分布、性别构成、文化构成、户口登记地情况、迁移原因等五个方面进行介绍，而在北京市经济发展现状描述部分，则从北京市地区生产总值、年均增长率、三次产业构成等方面进行阐述。文章的第四部分和第五部分为论文的核心部分，第四部分是模型的建立，基于有效劳动理论及C-D生产函数构造流动人口对经济增长贡献率的测度模型，并结合北京实际给出各参数的估算方法。第五部分是北京市流动人口对经济增长的影响实证研究，通过第四章所建立的模型，测算出1990-2011年北京市流动人口对经济增长的贡献率，测算结果表明，流动人口对经济增长的贡献率逐年提升，近10年均超过20%。第六部分为研究结论和政策建议，主要是积极发挥北京市流动人口对经济发展的正效应的政策建议。
[Abstract]:Population mobility as a specific population phenomenon has been concerned by scholars in various fields. Now China's economic and social development is in a critical period the transformation of economic growth mode and the adjustment of economic structure. The problem of floating population affects every nerve of the society. Especially in a big city like Beijing, the impact of floating population is more obvious and more important. After several ten years of development. Great changes have taken place in the floating population in Beijing, and many important new features have emerged. The impact of the floating population on the economy. It is an important problem for Beijing to realize the fundamental transformation of the mode of economic growth and to maintain the stable, healthy and sustainable development of economy and society. This paper will try to introduce the economic method to probe into the quantitative analysis of the contribution of floating population to the economy. . This paper attempts to analyze the impact of floating population on economic growth in Beijing. In order to achieve this goal, this paper reviews the basic theory of population mobility and economic growth and the relevant research literature at home and abroad. Then it analyzes the current situation of floating population and economic development in Beijing, and analyzes the impact of floating population on economic development by combining qualitative and quantitative methods. Finally, it summarizes the research conclusions and puts forward some policy suggestions to give full play to the positive effect of the floating population in Beijing on the economy. Specifically, this paper can be divided into six parts, the first part is the introduction, the introduction includes five small parts, they are: what is the background of this study, the purpose and significance of this study. This study uses ideas and methods, concept definition, the possible focus of this paper, difficulties and innovations. The second part is related theory and literature review, in the introduction of relevant theories. The author briefly introduces the representative Marxist theory of population mobility, the traditional model of development economics and the theory of new labor migration economics, while in the literature review part. Not all studies on population mobility are simply listed. The third part is the description of the floating population and economic development in Beijing, and the current situation of floating population in Beijing. From the floating population regional distribution, gender composition, cultural composition, registered residence status, migration reasons and other five aspects, and in the description of economic development in Beijing, from the gross domestic product of Beijing. The 4th and 5th parts of the paper are the core part of the paper, and the 4th part is the establishment of the model. Based on the effective labor theory and C-D production function, the paper constructs a model to measure the contribution of floating population to economic growth. The 5th part is an empirical study of the impact of floating population on economic growth in Beijing, through the model established in Chapter 4th. The contribution rate of floating population to economic growth in Beijing from 1990 to 2011 is calculated. The result shows that the contribution rate of floating population to economic growth is increasing year by year. In the last 10 years, it is more than 20. 6th part of the research conclusions and policy recommendations, mainly the positive effect of the floating population in Beijing on economic development policy advice.
【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F127;C922.2

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