新供给经济增长理论:中国改革开放经济表现的解读与展望

发布时间：2018-01-03 05:38

本文关键词：新供给经济增长理论:中国改革开放经济表现的解读与展望　出处：《财政研究》2014年11期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：现实情况下,潜在经济增长率由恢复性增长因素、学习性增长因素和领先性增长因素混合构成。潜在增长率的实际实现率由软性制度、强制制度和契约制度三层制度因素决定。改革开放的目标就是通过适当的制度变迁和制度供给,提高潜在经济增长率和提高潜在增长率的实际实现率。本文提出新供给的经济增长理论,认为长期增长的决定性因素在于侧重供给侧的制度供给,从供给侧研究供求均衡问题是推动经济增长的关键,并以此测算了中国经济未来的潜在增长率。中国改革开放的成功正是因为实施了解放供给约束、推动供给创新的制度变迁。如果未来中国的改革开放能够进一步释放以企业为主体的供给侧活力,以制度供给进一步创造制度红利,将人口红利升级为智力红利,中国的经济就能从学习型进步提升到领先型进步,就能为人类文明与科技进步继续做出贡献,实现中华民族的伟大复兴。
[Abstract]:In reality, the potential economic growth rate is composed of restorative growth factors, learning growth factors and leading growth factors. The actual realization rate of potential growth rate is soft system. Compulsory system and contract system are three levels of institutional factors. The goal of reform and opening up is through appropriate institutional changes and institutional supply. This paper puts forward a new theory of economic growth and thinks that the decisive factor of long-term growth lies in the supply-side institutional supply. It is the key to promote economic growth to study the supply-demand equilibrium from the supply side, and to calculate the potential growth rate of China's economy in the future. The success of China's reform and opening up is due to the implementation of liberating supply constraints. If China's reform and opening up in the future can further release the supply-side vitality with enterprises as the main body, and further create institutional dividends with institutional supply. By upgrading the demographic dividend to the intellectual dividend, China's economy can be upgraded from a learning type to a leading one, and it can continue to contribute to the progress of human civilization and science and technology, thus realizing the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation.
【作者单位】：大公国际资信评估有限公司;
【分类号】：F124
【正文快照】： 从面向更长历史尺度、更宽国际视野的更一般的经济规律出发,研究符合现实情况、尤其是符合中国当前情况的经济增长理论,是推动中国经济的发展方式转变、产业结构调整、早日达到高收入水平的必要基础工作。一、现实的经济增长模型——三因素模型1.基本定义与前提假设。本文研究

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