中国—加拿大建立FTA的经济效应分析

发布时间：2018-01-03 23:20

本文关键词：中国—加拿大建立FTA的经济效应分析　出处：《中国海洋大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：在当今社会，经济的发展离不开国家间的经济合作，各国间的经济依存度越来越高，任何一个国家都不可能脱离其他国家而单独发展。自由贸易区合作是现在国际经济合作的主流形式之一。中国已与世界多个国家和地区建立了自由贸易区，并进行着密切的经济合作，促进了中国经济的发展。中国与发达国家建立的自由贸易区为数不多，争取与资源丰富的发达国家发展经济合作关系符合中国经济发展的长期利益。加拿大作为自然资源和能源丰富的发达国家，是理想的合作对象。中加两国领导人在2011年-2012年的多次会晤中也表达了建立自由贸易区的坚定意向。并完成了可行性报告。在该时事背景下，基于学术实证性的考虑，本文对中加自由贸易区建立后的经济效应和其他一系列相关问题进行了系统的分析与研究。选用了贸易引力模型和巴拉萨模型作为衡量贸易效应的量化指标，通过对中加两国进出口量的研究，运用定性分析和定量分析相结合的方法，选取了经济效应中最主要的贸易效应和投资效应进行了分析，并分析了贸易和投资活动带来的相关福利效应。最后预测了如何采取措施避免自贸区可能产生的贸易收益不平衡问题。全文共分为五章，主要内容归纳如下：第一章绪论，简要介绍了本文的选题背景、目的、研究内容和研究方法，以及国内外关于自由贸易区经济效应、自由贸易区静态效应和动态效应及相关福利性的研究现状，提出了本文的研究思路、框架及切入点。第二章是本文的理论基础。首先提出了中加建立自贸区的背景，并分析了建立中加自贸区的经济与非经济因素，，通过对中国和加拿大现状的分析与研究，指出了自贸区建立的现实基础和存在的优势条件，进一步说明了自贸区建立的可行性。第三章是本文的重点，对中加自贸区的贸易效应进行了实证分析。运用应用广泛的贸易引力模型和巴拉萨模型，针对中国与加拿大2000-2010年的进出口量、GDP总量等参数进行了模型回归，拟合度较好，并得出中加自贸区建立后，可以对福利增长起到促进作用。同时，分析了作用于中加自贸区贸易效应的主要因素，以及贸易效应带来的福利效果分析。第四章分析了中加建立自由贸易区后的投资效应。首先分析了影响跨国公司对外直接投资的因素，包括垄断优势理论、内部化理论、区位优势理论。再次，将投资效应分为投资创造效应和投资转移效应，通过区内对区内、区外对区内投资创造效应和投资转移效应的实证分析，总结了作用于中加自由贸易区投资效应的主要因素，得出了投资效应带来的福利效果。第五章指出了建立中加自贸区面临的挑战，提出了我国的应对战略。中国与加拿大可能面临长期利好与短期矛盾间的博弈，域内外各层次经济体及美国的影响。因此，中国应该正确处理与加拿大竞争与互补的关系，积极促进国内产业结构的调整。
[Abstract]:In today ' s society , the development of the economy is inseparable from the economic cooperation among nations , and the economic dependence among countries is becoming more and more high . The cooperation between China and developed countries is one of the mainstream forms of international economic cooperation . China has established free trade zones with many countries and regions of the world . It is an ideal cooperation object for China and developed countries with rich resources . The leaders of the two countries also expressed their firm intention to establish free trade zones in many meetings between 2011 and 2012 , and completed the feasibility report . In this context , based on the consideration of academic evidence , this paper systematically analyzes and studies the economic effect and other related problems after the establishment of the free trade area of China and Canada . The trade gravitation model and the Barraza model are used as the quantitative indexes to measure the trade effect . Through the research on the import and export quantity of the two countries , the main trade effect and investment effect in the economic effect are analyzed , and the related welfare effects brought by the trade and investment activities are analyzed . The full text is divided into five chapters , the main contents are summarized as follows : The first chapter introduces the background , purpose , research content and research methods of this paper , as well as domestic and foreign research on free trade area economic effect , free trade area static effect and dynamic effect and related welfare , and puts forward the research thinking , framework and entry point of this paper . The second chapter is the theoretical basis of this paper . Firstly , the background of the establishment of the FTZ is put forward , and the economic and non - economic factors of the establishment of the FTA are analyzed . Through the analysis and research on the present situation of China and Canada , the paper points out the realistic foundation and the existing advantages of the establishment of FTZ , and further explains the feasibility of the establishment of FTZ . The third chapter is the focus of this paper , empirical analysis on the trade effect of China and Canada ' s FTZ . By applying the widely used model of trade gravitation and Barraza model , this paper makes a model regression of the parameters such as the import and export volume and GDP of China and Canada from 2000 to 2010 , and can promote the growth of welfare . At the same time , the main factors that affect the trade effect of China and Canada are analyzed , and the benefit effects brought by the trade effect are analyzed . The fourth chapter analyzes the investment effect after the establishment of free trade area in China . First , the factors that affect the foreign direct investment of transnational corporations are analyzed , including the theory of monopoly advantage , internalization theory and location advantage theory . The investment effect is divided into investment creation effect and investment transfer effect . Chapter five points out the challenges facing the establishment of the Central and Canadian Free Trade Zone , and puts forward our country ' s response strategies . China and Canada may face long - term and short - term conflicts between the economy and the United States . Therefore , China should correctly handle the relationship with Canada ' s competition and complementarity , and actively promote the adjustment of domestic industrial structure .

【学位授予单位】：中国海洋大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F125.4;F752.7

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