卡尔多—卡莱斯基经济周期模型在中国的实证检验

发布时间：2018-01-03 23:26

本文关键词：卡尔多—卡莱斯基经济周期模型在中国的实证检验　出处：《复旦大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：与经济波动相比,中国改革开放以来的投资波动存在较为明显的滞后。投资增长与经济增长的错配有可能影响经济的平稳发展,甚至放大经济波动。因此对投资滞后与经济周期关系的研究有助于我们更好地把握经济运行的规律和合理认识投资对经济发展的带动作用,为我国的宏观调控政策提供理论依据。本文通过构建卡尔多-卡莱斯基动态经济周期模型,研究投资滞后对中国经济稳定性的影响,并提出了缩短投资的时间滞后,促进中国经济稳定运行的建议。本文首先回顾了中国改革开放以来的历次经济周期和投资增长率波动的周期,分析了导致投资变动滞后于产出变动的原因。随后,本文将卡尔多-卡莱斯基动态经济周期模型应用到经济周期理论研究中,分析了中国投资滞后对经济运行稳定性造成的影响。在凯恩斯国民收入决定模型中,边际储蓄倾向和边际投资倾向是常数。英国经济学家卡尔多改进了凯恩斯的国民收入决定模型,提出边际储蓄倾向和边际投资倾向是随着产出的波动而变化的,不同产出水平下社会的投资和储蓄有所不同,因而会出现总需求大于或者小于总供给的现象。此后,学者们将卡尔多模型和强调投资滞后效应对经济周期影响的卡莱斯基模型结合起来,提出在投资倾向和储蓄倾向变化时,投资如果相对产出变化而言存在滞后,对经济运行的稳定存在负面影响。本文结合中国实际对卡尔多-卡莱斯基模型进行修改和重构,在模型中加入财政支出、净出口等变量,并用1985年至2011年的中国宏观数据进行模型拟合。在得出包含具体数值的方程组后,本文针对中国经济的不同发展阶段进行经济系统稳定性的研究。本文的计量分析结果表明当产出水平较低时,中国的投资增幅较快；而产出达到更高水平后,投资增速开始放缓。统计结果也表明中国的投资变化相对产出变化存在滞后。因而,运用卡尔多-卡莱斯基经济周期模型研究投资滞后对中国经济稳定性的影响是比较恰当的。通过实证研究,可以得出几点结论：(1)我国经济增长与投资水平变化的关系是非线性的。(2)投资滞后对中国经济的稳定性存在负面影响。缩短投资的滞后期有利于保持经济的平稳运行。(3)在经济发展的不同阶段,投资时滞的长度对经济波动的影响程度不同。针对分析结果,本文还提出了缩短投资滞后期的几点建议。
[Abstract]:Compared with the economic fluctuation, the fluctuation of investment in China has lagged behind since the reform and opening up. The mistakes of investment growth and economic growth may affect the smooth development of the economy. Therefore, the study of the relationship between the lag of investment and the economic cycle will help us better grasp the laws of economic operation and reasonably understand the role of investment in economic development. This paper studies the impact of investment lag on China's economic stability by constructing the dynamic business cycle model of Cardo-Kalesky. It also puts forward the suggestion of shortening the time lag of investment and promoting the stable operation of Chinese economy. This paper first reviews the successive economic cycles and the fluctuation cycles of investment growth rate since the reform and opening up in China, and analyzes the reasons why the investment changes lag behind the output changes. In this paper, the dynamic business cycle model of Cardo-Kalesky is applied to the study of business cycle theory, and the influence of the lag of Chinese investment on the stability of economic operation is analyzed. In Keynesian national income decision model, marginal saving tendency and marginal investment tendency are constant. It is pointed out that the marginal saving tendency and marginal investment tendency change with the fluctuation of output, and the social investment and savings are different under different output levels. As a result, there will be a phenomenon that the aggregate demand is greater or smaller than the total supply. After that, scholars combine the Kalesky model with the Kalesky model, which emphasizes the effect of the lag effect of investment on the economic cycle. It is pointed out that when the investment tendency and the saving tendency change, there is a negative impact on the stability of the economic operation if the investment lags behind the change of the output. This paper revises and reconstructs the Kaldo-Kalesky model based on the reality of China, and adds fiscal expenditure, net export and other variables into the model. The model is fitted with Chinese macroscopic data from 1985 to 2011. The equations containing specific values are obtained. This paper studies the stability of China's economic system at different stages of economic development. The results of the econometric analysis show that when the output level is low, China's investment growth is faster; But after the output reaches the higher level, the investment growth rate starts to slow down. The statistical result also indicates that the Chinese investment change is lagging behind the output change. It is more appropriate to study the impact of investment lag on China's economic stability by using the Cardovician business cycle model. Several conclusions can be drawn: (1) the relationship between China's economic growth and the change of investment level is nonlinear. The lag of investment has a negative effect on the stability of Chinese economy. Shortening the lag period of investment is helpful to keep the economy running smoothly at different stages of economic development. The influence of the length of investment delay on economic fluctuation is different. In view of the results of the analysis, some suggestions for shortening the lag period of investment are put forward in this paper.
【学位授予单位】：复旦大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124.8

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