我国居民消费周期性波动问题研究

发布时间：2018-01-04 14:54

本文关键词：我国居民消费周期性波动问题研究　出处：《首都经济贸易大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：发展生产目的就是为了消费，发展消费也是为了更好的实现生产。消费是经济发展的目的和动力，这是马克思早已阐明的理论。消费是一国经济的重要组成部分，从为满足人民群众的物质文化需求角度来讲，消费是推动经济增长的根本动力。近年来，消费的增速虽然有所加快，成为促进经济增长的一只最稳定的动力因素，但总体上消费的增长仍面临诸多问题，其根源在于影响消费增长的一些深层次矛盾。有效需求不足，特别是居民消费需求的不足成为制约中国经济持续健康平稳发展的主要障碍。研究国内消费需求的波动性和周期性对我国居民和我国经济增长都有重要的现实意义。第一，有助于推动我国宏观经济周期体系建设。我国宏观经济指标主要是国内生产总值（GDP），波动性研究也主要是研究GDP的波动周期，通过研究我国消费需求的波动性能够推动我国宏观经济要素波动体系的建设和发展。第二，从一个新的角度了解经济周期波动的特点，有助于对经济周期波动和消费周期的关系、经济增长和消费的关系有一个新的认识。第三，有助于维持和稳定消费者的消费水平。根据城镇居民和农村居民不同的消费周期性特点，制定针对有效的消费政策，保持消费者的消费水平稳中提高。本文在大量搜集和认真查阅国内外已有研究成果的基础上，对建国以来不同阶段我国居民消费的数据资料进行汇总整理，总结出在各个不同发展阶段我国居民总消费、城镇居民消费、农村居民消费的周期波动性特征；对比消费波动与经济周期波动的特点，研究其波动相关性；按照消费曲线波动的固有特征因素，研究我国消费波动曲线的波长、波幅、路径、扩张期和收缩期等。按照统计年鉴的分类方法，分别研究城镇居民、农村居民消费波动特征以及国际比较，在此基础上，构建计量模型--协整误差修正模型，测算消费和经济增长之间的协整关系。运用相关消费理论分析造成消费周期性波动的原因，最后得出本文的研究结论并提出对策建议。正文共分为七章。第一章前言，首先，介绍文章的选题背景，指出我国消费现状以及当前经济形势，为全文的写作指明研究的必要性，深入地分析了文章的理论意义和现实意义。其次，从消费周期的存在性、消费周期的原因、消费与其它经济变量之间的关系和消费周期对整体经济波动的影响四个方面对国内外研究成果进行了文献综述，总结了消费周期的研究现状，，为本文研究侧重点和目标指明了方向。第三，阐述了文章的研究思路、研究方法以及研究突破和不足。第二章理论基础，介绍了有限理性思想、理论模型和理论意义及价值。分析居民消费周期性波动的原因机制，按照内在和外在因素及运行机制的不同，分析收入、物价、消费者心理预期、经济波动等对居民消费产生周期性波动造成的影响。第三章我国居民消费周期的特征分析。从本章开始对我国居民消费总需求按照计划经济阶段、市场经济初级阶段、市场经济确立以后阶段依次做具体分析。我国经济波动的衡量指标是GDP增长率，同理，本文采用居民消费需求增长率作为衡量消费周期的指标。第一节，通过查阅历年《中国统计年鉴》，把建国后历年我国消费增长率数据做成曲线图，分阶段分析不同体制条件下的消费周期特点及规律，其中我国居民消费波动的周期性特征是波长为3-5年。第二节，按照研究经济周期的研究范式，即按照研究经济周期的特征指标研究消费周期的路径、波长和波幅、扩张期和收缩期。第三节，不同经济体制发展阶段研究居民消费波动的特点分析。第四节，对比消费周期曲线和GDP波动曲线，分析消费周期和经济波动的相关性。消费波动与经济波动具有很高的相似度。第五节，基于消费者有限理性预期对我国居民消费波动的理论分析。第四章我国城镇和农村居民消费的周期性特征分析。本章从城镇和农村二元经济角度划分不同居民消费需求来分别研究城镇居民和农村居民的周期波动类型，波长和波幅、扩张期和收缩期特征，并分别比较他们的波动性与经济周期波动的关系。第五章我国居民消费波动与国外居民消费波动的比较研究。本章把我国居民消费波动与代表性发达国家和代表性发展中国家的居民消费波动情况进行比较，分别得出了与发达国家和发展中国家居民消费波动存在的相同点和不同点。第六章我国消费周期与我国宏观经济周期的协整分析，首先介绍协整理论、误差修正模型，为协整-误差修正模型构建做好理论基础，然后进行模型的假设和数据的选择与处理，然后按照步骤进行单位根检验、协整检验，构建误差修正模型并计算出结果。第七章结论与政策建议，对全文研究做一个总结，并指出关于消费周期下一步的研究方向。根据消费周期对经济增长的影响，结合第二章得出的造成消费周期的原因，主要针对当前的宏观经济形势以及我国国内消费总需求的发展现状进行对策研究，为我国政府部门制定有助于提高消费水平、扩大消费规模等经济政策提供理论依据。
[Abstract]:Consumption is an important part of economic development . Consumption is an important component of economic development . Consumption is an important component of economic growth . In recent years , consumption is the most stable dynamic factor to promote economic growth . In recent years , the growth of consumption is still facing a lot of problems . This paper studies the volatility and periodicity of domestic consumption demand , which is of great practical significance to China ' s residents and our country ' s economic growth . Based on a large number of research achievements at home and abroad , this paper summarizes the data of the consumption of Chinese residents in different stages since the founding of the People ' s Republic of China , summarizes the characteristics of the fluctuation of consumption and fluctuation of the consumption of urban residents , and studies the relationship between consumption and economic growth . The text is divided into seven chapters . The first chapter introduces the background of the article , points out the current situation of consumption and the current economic situation , analyses the theoretical and practical significance of the article . Secondly , from the existence of consumption cycle , the relation between consumption and other economic variables and the influence of consumption cycle on the whole economic fluctuation , the paper summarizes the research situation of consumption cycle , and points out the direction for the research of the paper . Based on the second chapter , the author introduces the finite rational thought , the theoretical model and the theory meaning and value , analyzes the reason mechanism of the periodic fluctuation of the resident consumption , analyzes the influence of income , price , consumer ' s psychological expectation , economic fluctuation and so on on the fluctuation of the residents ' consumption according to the internal and external factors and the operating mechanism . In chapter 3 , the characteristics of consumption cycle in our country are analyzed . From the beginning of this chapter , we analyze the consumption growth rate of our country according to the planned economy stage , the primary stage of market economy and the establishment of market economy . In chapter 4 , the periodic characteristics of the consumption of urban and rural residents in our country are analyzed . This chapter divides the period fluctuation type , the wavelength and the amplitude , the dilators and the systolic characters of the urban residents and rural residents from the perspective of urban and rural dual economy , and compares their volatility with the fluctuation of the economic cycle , respectively . Chapter five is a comparative study of the fluctuation of resident consumption in China and the fluctuation of consumption fluctuation abroad . This chapter compares the fluctuation of resident consumption in our country with the consumption fluctuation of the representative developed countries and the representative developing countries , and obtains the similarities and differences between the consumption fluctuation of the developed and developing countries . In chapter 6 , the co - integration analysis of China ' s consumption cycle and the macro - economic cycle of China firstly introduces the co - integration theory , the error correction model , the theory foundation for the co - integration - error correction model , then carries on the assumption of the model and the selection and processing of the data , then performs unit root inspection and co - integration test according to the steps , and constructs the error correction model and calculates the result . According to the conclusion and policy suggestion , this paper summarizes the whole research and points out the research direction of the next step in the consumption cycle . According to the influence of consumption cycle on economic growth , according to the reasons of the consumption cycle caused by the second chapter , this paper mainly focuses on the current macro - economic situation and the development of domestic consumption demand in China , and provides the theoretical basis for the government departments to formulate economic policies which will help to improve the consumption level and enlarge the consumption scale .

【学位授予单位】：首都经济贸易大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F126.1;F224

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