城镇化进程、市民化待遇与居民消费倾向

发布时间：2018-01-05 07:22

本文关键词：城镇化进程、市民化待遇与居民消费倾向　出处：《东北财经大学》2013年硕士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：中国的城镇化进程被认为是推动中国乃至世界未来经济增长的基础性动力之一。而扩大内需尤其是提高居民消费是实现经济持续健康发展、加快转变经济增长方式的关键,内需的不断扩大可以改变投资拉动的经济增长方式,进而优化内需结构。因此,加快推进城镇化进程和提高消费率对扩大内需和保持经济的持续健康发展意义深远。那么城镇化与消费的关系是什么,为此我们需要思考下面几个问题：第一,在当前我国的城乡二元公共服务体制条件下,城镇化进程的推进是提高还是降低了社会整体的福利水平,是否有利于公共服务的均等化?第二,公共服务的非均等化对消费率产生了什么影响,又是通过什么途径产生影响的?第三,形成我国当前这种城镇化模式的深层次原因是什么,通过什么途径可以改变这种城镇化悖论?找到这些问题的答案有助于我们选择更加合理科学的城镇化模式,让城镇化的发展起到应有的推进经济增长和社会发展的作用。第一章主要介绍了选题的背景、研究的方法,从国内外的相关研究文献中找出理论的依据,引入了公共服务这个变量,说明研究的立足点和创新点,阐述了进一步分析研究的意义,并简要说明了基本的写作框架。第二章从城镇化理论、消费理论和公共服务理论展开分析,首先从国内外的城镇化发展经验来看,城镇化发展不同时期的阶段特征有哪些,怎样对经济产生的影响,进而分析我国现状判断出目前我国城镇化发展所处的阶段；其次,分析影响消费率变动的因素和消费增加对经济的影响,进一步讨论我国当前消费率偏低的原因；最后,通过对公共服务在一国经济发展中的重要性分析,进一步揭露了我国当前公共服务提供的非均等化和不足问题对经济发展的阻碍影响。第三四章的研究立足城镇化进程、市民化待遇与居民消费倾向这样一个三位一体的研究框架,试图解析并证明市民化待遇在连接城镇化进程与居民消费倾向之间的关键作用。首先通过理论分析充分说明了三者之间存在的内在联系,并结合了数理分析和讨论,然后构建出模型,模型中关于消费这个变量使用了两个不同的指标,一个是最终消费率,是统计公布的最终消费率占GDP的比重；另一个是最终消费增长率,指的是最终消费量绝对值的增减变化。前者的分析结果验证了居民消费倾向在影响消费率方面的决定性作用,收入的提高对最终消费率有反向影响而且城镇化率的增长也对消费率有反向的影响关系,公共服务支出对消费率的增长有较大的正向影响。对后者的分析结果可以得出,收入的提高可以明显提高消费的增长率,公共服务的支出也对消费增长率有明显的提高作用,但是城镇化率的提高仍然与消费增长率呈反向影响关系。最后得出结论,当前我国的最终消费率没有随着城镇化率的提高而提高的主要原因是由于我国城乡二元的经济体制下,公共服务的提供存在着城乡差异,被统计为新增城镇人口的这部分人并没有享受到应有的福利待遇,存在公共服务提供的非均等化,再加上居民消费倾向的降低和政府在公共服务方面的投入不足,消费增长率也与城镇化率存在反向影响,综合分析我们得出结论,公共服务的提供对消费影响很大,市民化待遇的实现可以提高公共服务对消费的积极影响,起到扩大内需的作用,对经济发展的持续稳定起到保障作用。所以必须改变我国当前的城乡二元公共服务提供体制,才能改变我国当前的城镇化增长悖论。
[Abstract]:The process of urbanization China is considered to be one of the basic power to promote Chinese and the world economic growth in the future. And the expansion of domestic demand especially the increase of consumption is to achieve sustained and healthy economic development, the key to accelerating the transformation of the mode of economic growth, expanding domestic investment can change the mode of economic growth, and further optimize the structure of domestic demand therefore. To accelerate the process of urbanization, and increase the ratio of consumption to expand domestic demand and maintain the sustained and healthy economic development of great significance. So what is the relationship between urbanization and consumption, so we need to think about some problems: first, in the current China's urban and rural public service system under the condition of two yuan, the town is to promote the process of urbanization to increase or decrease the social welfare as a whole, whether there is conducive to the equalization of public services? Second, not the equalization of public services have on the rate of consumption What effect, and is affected by what way? Third, the formation of deep-seated reasons of China's current urbanization mode is what, through what channels can change the urbanization paradox? Find the answers to these questions are the pattern of urbanization will help us to choose a more reasonable and scientific, so that the development of urbanization due to promote economic growth and social development.
The first chapter mainly introduces the background, research methods, find out the theoretical basis from the relevant research literature at home and abroad, the introduction of public service that the variable and the basis of the research and innovation, expounds the further analysis of the significance of the research, and briefly describes the basic framework of writing.
The second chapter of the theory from the towns, analyze the consumption theory and public service theory, first of all from the experience of domestic and international development of urbanization, urbanization which has stage characteristics in different periods, what kind of impact on economy, and then analysis the present situation of our country determine the current development of China's urbanization at the second stage; analysis of influence factors, the change of consumption rate and increase the consumption of the effect on the economy, further discusses the reasons of China's current low consumption rate; finally, through the analysis of the importance of public service in the development of a country's economy, further reveals the problems hindering effect on non equalization and insufficient to provide public services in China on the current the development of economy.
Chapter three or four studies on the process of urbanization, urbanization benefits and propensity to consume such a three-in-one research framework, attempts to analyze and prove the key role in the treatment of the people of the connection between urbanization and consumption tendency. Firstly, through theoretical analysis, fully explained the inherent relationship between the three, and with the mathematical analysis and discussion, and then build a model about the consumption of this variable use two different indicators in the model, one is the final consumption rate is the rate of final consumption statistics released by the proportion of GDP; the other one is the final consumption growth rate, refers to the change of the absolute value of final consumption the analysis results of the former. The decisive role to verify the propensity to consume in the influence of the consumption rate, income increase and the urbanization rate has a negative effect on the growth of consumption rate of final consumption A reverse relationship has a positive impact rate, greater growth in public service expenditure on consumption rate. The results show that income increase can significantly improve the consumption growth rate, the public service expenditure on the consumption growth rate increased obviously with increasing urbanization rate, but still with the consumption growth rate is negatively affected.
Finally come to the conclusion that the main reason for the current final consumption rate in China is not with the urbanization rate increase is due to China's two urban and rural economic system, the provision of public services exist between urban and rural areas, these people are statistics for the new urban population and should not enjoy the benefits, there are the non equalization of public service, plus the propensity to consume and reduce the government in the public service of the lack of investment, consumption growth rate and urbanization rate has negative impacts, the comprehensive analysis we conclude that the provision of public services has great influence on the realization of the public consumption, treatment can improve the positive impact of the public the service of consumption, to expand domestic demand, sustained and stable economic development to play a role. So we must change our current two urban and rural public service system, In order to change the current paradox of urbanization in China.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：硕士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F299.21;F126.1

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