家庭消费行为变迁、经济波动与居民消费率——基于Bayes估计的DSGE模型

发布时间：2018-01-05 08:25

本文关键词：家庭消费行为变迁、经济波动与居民消费率——基于Bayes估计的DSGE模型　出处：《经济问题》2014年06期 　论文类型：期刊论文

【摘要】：在动态随机一般均衡(DSGE)模型的理论框架下,结合转型期中国经济的特征事实,引入不确定性、信贷约束以及习惯形成等居民消费特征,采用贝叶斯(Bayes)估计方法分析1978~2012年间信贷约束与消费习惯形成特征对我国宏观经济波动和居民消费率的影响机制。研究结果表明,模型能够分别解释实际产出、消费、投资和就业波动的94.1%、84.5%、50.7%和74.5%;同时探讨家庭消费行为变迁对居民消费率的影响,研究发现,短期内收入冲击与偏好冲击对居民消费率均有刺激作用,但长期内两者对消费率的影响有较大差异,即收入冲击的正向作用有明显的持续性,而偏好冲击使居民消费率更加萎缩;同时,习惯形成特征有效平滑了居民消费,有效减弱了不确定性对居民消费率和储蓄率的影响。
[Abstract]:Under the theoretical framework of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model, combined with the characteristic facts of Chinese economy in the transition period, this paper introduces the characteristics of residents' consumption, such as uncertainty, credit constraint and habit formation. The Bayesian Bayes estimation method is used to analyze the influence mechanism of credit constraint and consumption habit formation on the macroeconomic fluctuation and consumption rate in China from 1978 to 2012. The model can explain the 94.1% and 74.5% of the actual output, consumption, investment and employment fluctuation respectively. At the same time, the change of household consumption behavior on the impact of household consumption rate, the study found that the short-term impact of income and preference impact on the consumption rate has stimulating effect. But in the long run, there is a great difference between the two on the consumption rate, that is, the positive effect of income shock has obvious persistence, and the preference impact makes the consumption rate of residents shrink more. At the same time, habit formation features can effectively smooth the residents' consumption and weaken the influence of uncertainty on the consumption rate and savings rate.
【作者单位】：厦门大学经济学院;
【基金】：国家社科基金重大项目“经济持续健康发展与收入倍增计划的实现路径研究”(13&ZD029) 教育部人文社会科学重点研究基地重大项目“校准要素比较扭曲,推进经济发展方式转变问题研究”(13JJD790026)阶段性成果
【分类号】：F126.1
【正文快照】： 一、引言改革开放以来,我国经济高速增长,居民收入得到极大改善,而居民消费占GDP的比重(居民消费率)却不断下滑,消费率的持续下降已成为中国经济近十余年来结构失衡的最重要表现,并将成为下一阶段经济难以持续健康发展的主要原因。在世界189个国家按购买力平价以及可比价(2005

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