能源节约、碳减排与中国经济增长

发布时间：2018-01-05 11:19

本文关键词：能源节约、碳减排与中国经济增长　出处：《东北财经大学》2013年博士论文　论文类型：学位论文

【摘要】：资源节约、环境保护与经济增长是人类共同关心的话题,也是当今学术界关注的一个热点。其中,一个重要的焦点便是能源节约、碳减排和经济增长问题。在中国,如果认可能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长之间的不协调、不平衡之现状,那是因为中国工业化发展的阶段特征、城镇化推进过程中能源消耗(需求)结构的固化以及全球产业分工链条的低端化而导致的经济粗放式的增长。在面对能源短缺、碳排放和经济增长的矛盾及世界气候变化的国际压力,如何才能兑现中国在国际气候谈判中所作出的承诺,即到2020年中国的单位GDP二氧化碳排放(即GDP碳排放强度)比2005年下降40-45%,非化石能源占一次能源消耗比重达到15%左右,应从不同角度提出一个全面的能源资源节约和碳减排的对策。本文首先对资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)和经济增长关系的研究文献进行了梳理,发现,主流的增长理论中,资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)经历了被忽视、重视和全面重视的不同发展阶段。随着自然资源(能源)因素在经济增长中作用的重视,以及经济增长对环境的破坏,尤其是自然资源(能源)的利用对环境污染的日益加重,如温室气体效应、酸雨及极端气候等,经济增长理论中的资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)问题,即三者的协调性、经济的可持续增长、能源的节约以及碳减排等问题成为了当前研究的核心。那么,问题的另一方面即是,在资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)的约束下,经济是否可以持续增长?文章分别基于新古典增长理论和新增长理论(内生增长理论),将能源资源和碳排放引入到增长模型中,并对各个参数进行了适当的设置,通过均衡解的解析,得出经济持续增长的基本条件是能源消耗的增长率不能大于能源存量的增长率,也就是说能源存量能够满足能源消耗(需求)的同时,污染物的增长率不能大于0,也就是说环境质量不能随着经济产出规模的扩大而无限下降。接下来,文章对中国经济增长的动因从能源消耗的角度进行了初步探索,并对中国能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长的协调性进行了实证测算。能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长的Granger因果检验表明能源消耗是碳排放和经济增长的Granger原因,能源消耗和碳排放互为Granger因果关系,碳排放和经济增长互为Granger因果关系。路径分析表明,能源消耗和经济增长呈双向因果关系,经济增长对碳排放存在因果关系,能源消耗对碳排放存在因果关系。这从一定程度上佐证了中国经济增长严重依靠能源消耗,并导致了环境不断恶化的结论。利用非线性规划技术,基于方向性距离函数衡量中国环境与经济产出的环境技术效率表明中国中西部地区的能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长都处于失衡状况,而东部沿海发达地区的能源消耗、碳排放和经济关系较为和谐,但是,整体上来讲中国各个省、市、自治区的能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长关系在不断在恶化。这些不协调性的佐证再一次说明中国能源消耗、碳排放和经济增长之间矛盾的尖锐性,中国经济绿色增长的实现任重而道远。既然,在一定条件下经济增长是可持续的,即资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)和经济增长是可以协调发展的,因此,应通过政策或市场规律使得资源(能源)、环境(碳排放)和经济增长协调、平衡发展,从根本上实现中国经济“又好又快”的发展。于是,在当前中国工业化和城市化的特殊历史阶段,一个更为直观的问题便是：一、在保持经济持续增长的前提下,中国如何实现能源的节约,尤其是一次性能源或化石能源资源消耗的真正节约；二、在保持经济持续增长的前提下,如何实现中国碳排放的真正下降。在这样两个明确的目标约束下以及中国能源的过度消耗,尤其是一次性化石能源的消耗,进而导致的污染物严重超标,尤其是碳排放严重超标之现状,文章重点讨论了中国经济持续增长下的能源节约对策和中国经济持续增长下的碳减排对策。具体的,关于中国经济持续增长下的能源节约对策研究,主要从中国未来2015年和2020年能源强度目标出发,首先通过构建能源消耗的影响因素模型,将具有阶段性特征的工业化程度、城市化率等因素纳入到了模型当中,通过合理的能源消耗影响因素未来值的设定,预测出未来即2015年和2020年的人均能源消耗量,进而得到了预测能源强度值。其略高于政府计划值,说明中国未来能源节约的压力还较大。考虑到影响因素未来值设定的偏差,通过微调这些因素,进行单变量敏感性分析,发现产业结构的调整和技术进步将成为实现中国未来能源强度目标或能源节约的首选,其次是能源相对价格和贸易结构的改变。据此,本文提出能源节约的政策建议为,在进行积极倡导的同时,必须实施能源的强制节约。在此基础上,文章还基于省域和行业的角度,利用上述模型,通过建立面板数据模型对中国的节能路径进行全面地分析。从省域的来看,优化中国产业结构,降低工业尤其是耗能较高的行业在国民经济中的比例,有助于中国能源的节约；能源相对价格的提高不利于全国及低能源消耗组、中能源消耗组、高能源消耗组能源的节约；提高电力等效率较高的能源替代效率较低的煤炭有利于中国各个省、市、自治区最终能源的节约,但是对于不同的省、市、自治区要区别对待,因地制宜。从行业的角度来看,由于中国工业部门内部的诸多工业行业的能源消耗之间存在较大的差异,不同能耗特征的各个工业行业的能源消耗的显著影响因素及其影响程度大小的不尽相同,因此在保证中国经济持续增长的前提下,节能措施的采取应对不同的工业行业进行具体分析、区别对待。总的来讲,中国能源节约的重点行业是制造业,主要手段是技术进步。关于中国经济持续增长下的碳减排对策研究,主要通过建立中国人均二氧化碳排放和人均GDP关系的LSTR模型,并分别以经济增长速度和能源强度为阈值变量进行了分析。研究表明,中国人均二氧化碳排放和人均GDP的关系在不同经济环境下(如不同的经济增长速度和能源强度)而不同。为了实现中国碳减排和经济增长之双赢,并使得能源节约、碳减排与经济增长协调发展,必须在如何降低能源强度上下功夫。文章还基于全国的角度、省域的角度和行业的角度对如何降低能源强度进行了全面的分析。由全国能源强度的结构向量误差修正模型(SVECM)的脉冲响应和方差分解分析可知,为了实现能源强度的下降,短期内,能源价格改革和扩大对外开放程度成为“迅速”降低中国能源强度的关键。长期而言,必须大力发展中国的可再生能源和清洁能源,彻底改变中国的能源消耗结构。由省域能源强度的脉冲响应和方差分解可知,对于各个省、市、自治区的碳减排要从不同方面(如产业政策等)区别对待。总体来讲,优化能源消耗结构和产业结构是降低各个省、市、自治区能源强度的关键,要以技术进步和能源价格调整做为降低能源强度主要手段。具体来说,对于高能源强度组的青海、贵州、山西和宁夏而言,主要在产业结构和能源消耗结构调整上下工夫；对于中能源消耗组的四川、重庆、黑龙江、陕西、云南、吉林、辽宁、河北、新疆、内蒙古和甘肃而言,应主要在调整产业结构和技术进步上下功夫；对于低能源消耗组的福建、广东、海南、江苏、上海、江西、广西、山东、北京、湖南、安徽、天津和河南而言,因各个影响因素的作用均较小,所以节能减排的压力也较小。由行业能源强度的脉冲响应和方差分解可知,各个影响因素受到冲击后,能源消耗结构、技术进步和能源价格具有反向作用,贸易结构具有正向作用,均对降低能源强度有积极的持续作用,其中作用最大的是能源消耗结构,其余的作用较小。从方差分解结果可以看出,能源相对价格和能源消耗结构的贡献最大,技术进步和贸易结构贡献较小。因此,对于行业而言,节能减排的重点依然是能源消耗结构的大力调整。
[Abstract]:Resource conservation, environmental protection and economic growth is the topic of common concern of mankind, is also a focus of attention in the academic circle. Among them, an important focus is energy saving, carbon emission reduction and economic growth. In Chinese, if approved by the energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth between the uncoordinated situation don't balance, it is because Chinese stage characteristics of industrial development, urbanization, energy consumption in the process (demand) caused extensive economic structure and the global industrial chain of division of labor of curing the low end of growth. In the face of energy shortage, and the contradiction of global climate change on carbon emissions and economic growth of international pressure how to cash Chinese made in international climate negotiations commitments, by 2020 Chinese the carbon dioxide emissions per unit of GDP (GDP carbon intensity) than in 2005 dropped 40-45%, the share of non fossil fuels The proportion of primary energy consumption is about 15%, and a comprehensive strategy for energy conservation and carbon emission reduction should be put forward from different angles.
Firstly, the environment resources (energy) (carbon emissions) and studies the relationship between economic growth and carding, found that the mainstream economic growth theory, resource (energy), environment (carbon) experienced different stages of development are neglected, attention and full attention. With the natural resources (energy) factors in the economic growth and economic growth seriously, damage to the environment, especially the natural resources (energy) to take advantage of the increasingly serious environmental pollution, such as greenhouse effect, acid rain and other extreme weather, the theory of economic growth in resource (energy), environment (carbon) coordination problem, namely three the sustainable economic growth, saving and carbon emission reduction and other issues of energy has become the core of the current study.
Then, on the other hand, the problem is, in the resources (energy), environmental (carbon) constraints, whether the economy can continue to grow? The article based on the neoclassical growth theory and new growth theory (endogenous growth theory), energy resources and carbon emissions into the growth model, and the all parameters are set appropriately, by analyzing the equilibrium solution, the basic conditions for sustained economic growth is the energy consumption growth rate is not greater than the growth rate of the stock of energy, that is to say the stock of energy to meet the energy consumption (demand) at the same time, the growth rate of pollutants is not greater than 0, that is to say the quality of the environment can not with the expansion of economic output decreased and the infinite scale.
Next, the motivation of Chinese economic growth from the angle of energy consumption were discussed, and the China energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth of the harmony of the empirical estimates. Granger causality test energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth shows that the energy consumption is the Granger cause of carbon emissions and economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emissions are Granger causal relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth are the Granger causality. Path analysis showed that energy consumption and economic growth is a two-way causal relationship, economic growth on carbon emissions in the causal relationship between energy consumption, carbon emissions of a causal relationship. This proves China economic growth depends heavily on energy consumption from a certain extent, and lead to the deterioration of the environment. By using the nonlinear programming technique, the directional distance function to measure the environment and economy based on China Environmental technical efficiency shows the Midwest Chinese energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth are in imbalance, and the eastern coastal areas of energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic relations more harmonious, but the whole Chinese each province, city, autonomous region energy consumption, carbon emissions and economic growth in the deteriorate. The uncoordinated evidence shows once again Chinese energy consumption, the sharp contradiction between carbon emissions and economic growth, achieve go15 China green economic growth.
Since economic growth is sustainable under certain conditions, namely resources (energy), environment (carbon emissions) and economic growth can be coordinated development, therefore, should be through the policy or the laws of the market makes the resources (energy), environment (carbon emissions) and balanced economic growth and coordination, development, development of China economy "good and fast" fundamentally. So, in the special historical stage of the China industrialization and city, a more direct question is: first, in the premise of maintaining sustained economic growth, Chinese how to realize energy saving, especially energy and fossil energy resource consumption of the real economy; two, while maintaining sustained economic growth, how to achieve a real decline in Chinese carbon emissions.
In this two clear objectives and constraints China excessive consumption of energy, especially the one-time consumption of fossil energy, resulting in serious pollutants exceed the standard, especially the status of carbon emissions seriously exceed the standard, this article focuses on the carbon emission reduction countermeasures China sustained economic growth under the energy saving countermeasures and Chinese under sustainable economic development.
The countermeasure research on China saving energy under sustained economic growth, mainly from the Chinese next 2015 and 2020 energy intensity target of first by constructing a model of influencing factors of energy consumption, will have the stage characteristic of industrialization, factors of city rate into the model, through the reasonable energy consumption factors the next set of values, to predict the future in 2015 and 2020 the per capita energy consumption, and then get the forecast value. Its energy intensity is slightly higher than the value that the government plans, Chinese future energy saving pressure is also large. Considering the factors affecting future value deviation, by adjusting these factors by univariate analysis of sensitivity. Found that the adjustment of industrial structure and technological progress will be achieved China future energy intensity goals or energy conservation first, followed by the relative price of energy And the trade structure change. Accordingly, this energy saving policy recommendations, in advocating and implementing energy saving must be mandatory. On this basis, the provincial industry and based on the perspective of using the above model, a comprehensive analysis through such path to establish a panel data model based on the China from the provincial, Chinese optimization industrial structure, especially the lower industry in the national economy the proportion of energy consuming industries, help Chinese energy savings; the relative price of energy is not conducive to the improvement of the national energy and resource consumption in energy consumption group, group, group of high energy consumption energy saving; improve power such as high efficiency energy to replace coal with low efficiency to Chinese each province, city, autonomous region final energy conservation, but for different provinces, city, autonomous region should be treated differently, according to local conditions. From the industry point of view, because there is a big difference between many industrial sectors Chinese industrial sector energy consumption had significant effects on energy consumption characteristics of various industrial sectors of energy consumption factors and the influence degree is not the same, so under the premise of ensuring Chinese sustained economic growth, energy saving measures in the industrial sector with different specific analysis, the distinction. In general, China energy conservation in key industries is the manufacturing industry, the main means of technological progress.
Study on carbon emission reduction countermeasures about Chinese under sustained economic growth, mainly through the establishment of a LSTR model China per capita carbon emissions and per capita GDP, and were analyzed by using the economic growth rate and energy intensity as the threshold variables were China. The study shows that two per capita carbon emissions and per capita GDP in different economic environment (such as different economic growth rate and energy intensity) and different. In order to achieve win-win Chinese carbon emissions and economic growth, and makes the energy saving, carbon emission reduction and economic growth and coordinated development, must be on how to reduce the energy intensity of efforts. The article also based on the Perspective of the national, provincial perspective and the perspective of the overall industry the analysis on how to reduce the energy intensity. The model corrected by the structural vector error of national energy intensity (SVECM) of the impulse response and variance decomposition analysis, in order to achieve Decline of energy intensity in the short term, energy price reform and opening degree becomes a "rapid" key to reduce Chinese energy intensity. The long term, we must vigorously develop renewable energy and clean energy Chinese, completely change the structure of energy consumption. China by impulse response and variance of provincial energy intensity decomposition shows that for all province, city, autonomous region carbon emissions from different aspects (e.g., industrial policy) distinction. Generally speaking, the optimization of energy consumption structure and industrial structure is to reduce each province, city, autonomous region of the key energy strong, to technological progress and energy price adjustment as the main means to reduce the energy intensity of concrete. For the high energy intensity group, Qinghai, Guizhou, Shanxi and Ningxia, mainly in the industrial structure and energy consumption structure adjustment efforts; for energy consumption group in Sichuan, heavy Heilongjiang, Shaanxi, Qing, Yunnan, Jilin, Liaoning, Hebei, Xinjiang, Inner Mongolia and Gansu, mainly in the adjustment of industrial structure and technological progress on efforts; for the low energy consumption group in Fujian, Guangdong, Hainan, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Jiangxi, Guangxi, Shandong, Beijing, Hunan, Anhui, and Tianjin Henan, due to the action of various influence factors are small, so the pressure of energy saving is also smaller. The impulse response and variance decomposition shows that the strength of the energy industry, the impact of various factors, the energy consumption structure, technological progress and energy price has negative effects, the trade structure has a positive effect, have sustained positive effect to reduce the energy intensity, which is the biggest role of the energy consumption structure, little rest. From the variance decomposition results show that the relative price of energy and energy consumption structure of the largest contribution, technological progress And the trade structure has contributed less. Therefore, for the industry, the focus of energy conservation and emission reduction is still a strong adjustment of the energy consumption structure.

【学位授予单位】：东北财经大学
【学位级别】：博士
【学位授予年份】：2013
【分类号】：F224;F124.1;F205

【参考文献】